Boom times (2016 Special Edition)


#21

Doesn’t this allow the government to get a good return on NAMA property, a saving for the tax payer?


#22

Yes the figures are meaningless and GNP is now as distorted as GDP, but I’m not sure any of it mean much.

Remember that one of the four freedoms is the free movement of capital. That capital started moving from the UK last year should not surprise.

So it leaves us with a difficulty in what to measure growth and indebtedness by. I propose GNI and debt per capita. Any other ideas?


#23

“Thar’ she blows!”

I can see the pay gouging, I mean “restoration” movement, getting another shot in the arm after this…

I know it’s not particularly related, but that won’t stop the unions!


#24

Cost of servicing the debt seems like a more useful metric than how much if it there is, really…


#25

Without derailing the thread… What are our 4 core EU freedoms?

  1. Free movment of people
  2. Free movment of goods & services
  3. Free movment of capital
  4. ???

#26

Goods and services are separate freedoms :slight_smile:


#27

Fictitious GDP numbers don’t change the value of property


#28

Where are you getting that there is 40% between GDP and GNI here. According to the world bank there is 15% difference in 2014

tradingeconomics.com/ireland … -data.html


#29

Ok gotya.


#30

It is unfortunate that there are such distorting elements in the official figures. But that shouldn’t be allowed to obscure the fact that the minimum ‘real’ growth the economy experienced last year is around 6.5%+, which most other countries would kill for.


#31

Using tax receipts as a proxy for the economy

finance.gov.ie/what-we-do/pu … x-receipts

Tax receipts outturn month of June, so only for 6 months, but comparing like to like:

2016 22.5 bn

2015 20.6 bn

2014 18.5 bn

average +10% per annum


#32

This post makes even less sense than the GDP numbers, and that’s saying something.


#33

I thought that I read that there is a large increase in corporation taxes due largely to companies that are rebasing to Ireland without offering much in terms of actual employment here, so the actual tax returns themselves can’t be trusted to show the real underlying growth in the economy (if this is true).


#34

Just double checked…I looked at wrong column for GNI.

The numbers are in the link provided…

Table A

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2015 at current market prices 255,815

The correct number for GNI 2015 is 195,169 not the 164,488 I quoted. Thats was Gross National Income at constant market prices for 2014.

So actually 76% rather than 64% I originally quoted. So not 15% but 24%. But not the original 34% I thought.

Still pretty grim when most other countries are close to par. Just like GDP/GNP.


#35

You do know who has been buying directly or indirectly most sovereign debt the last few years? The ECB are currently only officially buying 1/3 or so but a lot the rest ends up eventually being parked at the ECB. The Feds and BOJ ditto.

As for the income tax and VAT receipts, thats what happened back in the 80’s when Ireland had to finance its 100% plus GNP dept on the open capital markets. I remember some years interest on the debt was almost equal to the gross income tax receipts. This time around you’d see a big chunk of VAT going too. So if the Irish CB does not directly or indirectly hold the majority of Irish national debt the NTMA is going to have some interesting problems when the ECB stops the current merry go round. Because the merry go round always stops. Sooner or later. The French and German CBs will not have the same kind of problem as Irelands as they currently directly or indirectly control most of their issued sovereign debt. Thats been a deliberate policy since the ECB opened the spigots in 2012. 4.5 trillion and counting…

So they,the French, Germans, US, Japanese etc - the big players, who know how the game is played can ZIRP to their hearts contents as they will not be so dependent on the open capital markets to roll over their national debt. The fact that it destroys all real future economic growth is a secondary matter by the stage. Those Boomers want their pensions and retirement income. And a slowly debauched currency is how it is going to be paid.

As for the smaller countries like Ireland who are massively in debt. They’re fucked. South America in the '80’s fucked.

Hope that was a bit clearer.


#36

As a more or less average non-citizen permanent resident, I don’t need 20% growth, as long as inflation is low enough. At this point, I’d be happy if the government were to spend the taxes on gold or uranium and drop it down a mineshaft, or (more productively), pay off the most expensive state debt, just as long as they don’t use it to bribe Joe Public to buy even more allegedly cheap future money on credit.


#37

well, it’s certainly clear that your post doesn’t communicate an understanding of sovereign debt, capital markets or “roll over”… but we’ll leave it there for the moment…

I mean it’s not like people haven’t been screaming “collapse” for 7 years now aaaaand the S&P is at new highs and sovereign yields at historic lows…
hmmmm, maybe the fundamental assumptions are incorrect? :open_mouth:


#38

As we know GDP is not a very good metric for scaling your debt to.

Debt interest is likely to be one third of income tax revenue this year.

Not a heavy burden.


#39

Krugman calling it “leprechaun economics”. Looks like we need a “real GDP” number.

A real risk of technical recession in 6 months. We’ll see people back-peddling from these numbers fairly swiftly then.


#40

A come on, you are taking GDP at current prices and GNI at constant to make the gap look bigger. If you take them both at constant or both at current then the gap was 20% in 2015. Far off yesterdays claim that GNI was just above 60% of GDP here.

Also GNI is slightly above GNP in 2015. Not below it by 20/25%