Boom times (2016 Special Edition)


#81

A bit, but more saying “don’t bank on it lads”; I think if there was to be national infrastructure funding out of revenue, this would be the tax head to use in a post-gain manner (so fund after earned). Unlikely to happen, but there you go!


#82

Buried by the Apple story…
Tax take 7% below forecast in Aug, mainly due to income tax receipts being down.

irishtimes.com/business/econ … -1.2777295

Q2 GDP due out by end Sept. Odds that we’re in a recession?


#83

On one quarter of data? Zero.
Odds that Q2 GDP declined? Depends on multinational tax avoiding flows.
Odds that Q3 GDP will also be negative? See answer to Q2 GDP…

One day we’ll be in a technical recession where GDP will be negative due to capital flows.
We could be in an actual recession based on tax take and employment numbers by year end?
13bn in capital spending would go some way to address that… :wink:


#84

You may be missing the fact that Q1 GDP was already down. All it needs if for Q2 GDP to also be down and we’re in a recession. Which as you say depends on MNCs and how they’re playing it.

Which makes me really interested in the private cal that Tim Cook and Enda Kenny had last Sunday, after which the Government insisted they needed to IMMEDIATELY agree to appeal the Apple ruling.


#85

Ah, yes, I was missing the Q1 figure, thank you!


#86

Yes somehow the media neglected to cover that release.


#87

Two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction are MEANINGLESS in the Irish context given how volatile the data are and how prone they are to revision.

A more useful definition of recession in Ireland would be two consecutive quarters of contraction in employment (which has recorded consecutive q-o-q increases since 2012.

The monthly tax data are vastly over-reported. They are only down against the monthly profile. *Monthly *can often be misleading because some months have more working days in them than the year before, or a big firm misses or makes a payment, etc.

My preferred measure is the year on year change in the 8 months to date which smooths out the bumps in the data as well as the human factor in generating profiles. On that basis exchequer tax revenue is 6% up on the same period in 2015 (and indeed 2% against profile for the whole period).


#88

finance.gov.ie/sites/default … ceipts.pdf

If you strip out the +508m (17.1%) more CT than expected by end-Aug, tax receipts are -59m or -0.2% behind target


#89

I agree. I’ve been saying that for ages. The amount of FDI messing in GDP makes it meaningless.

However… It’s going to be quite amusing to see all the people who’ve been trumpeting our “growth” based on GDP suddenly poo-poo GDP as insignificant once we’re in a (GDP) recession.


#90

Arbitrarily strip out any component of an aggregate and you can construct a different narrative.

Tax revenues up 6% yoy after a budget that set out to reduce the tax burden is the sign of an economy growing strongly.

Are things about to overheat? Perhaps sooner than you would think, but it is only at that point that you should worry.


#91

Somehow I don’t think the focus on abnormal CT skewing figures was “arbitrary”. More like a nod towards all that is going on


#92

End Nov tax receipts are out.

finance.gov.ie/sites/default … ceipts.pdf

Ignoring the targets (true story - DOF official explained to a friend that the increase from 20 to 22% in CGT would increase CGT receipts by 10% XX ), comfortably ahead of last year. Perhaps most importantly in the tea leaves, VAT is 4.8% of last year which would cover the post Brexit and collapsed sterling Sept Oct period.


#93

rte.ie/news/business/2016/12 … by-4-in-t/


#94

Ok, so you’re a billionaire now. Enjoy that while it lasts. And git yerseln a decent suit.

takimag.com/article/how_to_be_a_billionaire_joe_bob_briggs/print#axzz4SN1R3MKM


#95

@MightyZ; is this not the nudge you need to return to Poland?
viewtopic.php?p=901448#p901448


#96

m.independent.ie/life/article35326344.ece

This is like Canny McSavvy meets Patrick Bateman.
I can’t imagine EAs in Dublin even read this as satire.
It seems a bit disgusting to me.


#97

These are all the Irish cities that are hiking business rates this year - -> thejournal.ie/commercial-rat … 6-Jan2017/


#98

Listening to Newstalk this morning, it was mentioned that there is no talk in Ireland on the role of quantitative easing when it comes to the easy money flowing into Irish property.

QE is causing worldwide problems and creating bubbles in property, stock, shares, commodities etc


#99

Yep - if you give money to rich people they ‘invest’ in a limited number of asset classes - primarily property and commodities - this creates bubbles. The money does not circulate in the economy. The only trickle down effects are inflation in stuff that people buy that is related to these asset classes e.g rents. This has been known for years but the political class only listen to their paymasters (i.e. the ones they give the QE to). Helicopter Ben had the right idea - scatter money all over the economy - poor people spend every penny they get in the lower end of the economy - which has a multiplier effect that ultimately leads to job creation - rich people just hoard it.


#100

m.independent.ie/irish-news/reli … 65133.html

As far as I recall this is only the 3rd time in the last decade or so that this plan has been “launched”.
:angry:
Whereas if we’d just done it about 5 years ago when there was less congestion, and more availability of construction workers at lower cost - we’d have been done 2 or 3 years ago.

If we can balls this up - then we will. And boy will we!!
This. Is. Ireland.