I reckon with the lack of clear information that we will be unique here.
Sharp rise and sharp fall caused by rumours and not hard facts.
I reckon bottom of the market will be late spring 2009 - selling season will have ended and despair will be will be widespread amongst land owners as ECB interest rates of 4.5% just don’t seem to be coming down any time soon.
So I’m calling April 2009 as bottom of the Irish housing crash.
Anyone else care to guess the bottom of the housing market in this cycle?
It will be 2011 at least before the residential market will come near to bottoming in nominal terms and even after that prices will go no-where for years. The next time it’s logically possible for houses to pick up will be the echo boom in maybe 10-15 years time. (but there are other factors to take into account as well)
Once the unemployment rate and emigration starts biting hard in 2009/2010, houses in areas where employment has been held up by construction will simply be abandoned. There will be no desire to buy houses in the more remote locations of the country. We have a way to go yet, it should be clearer after the budget if the government intends to prop up the construction sector or not, if they decide not to then it may be possible to hit the bottom in 2010, if they decide to do intervene (the national debt continues to get bigger), then they could potentially drag the whole thing out for a decade.
It will simply not be possible to redistribute the 350,000 empty homes in this country by 2009 . Its a simply enormous overhang… the real elephant in the room when we look at the Irish housing bubble and its unwinding .
Revulsion ( cf Hyman Minsky ) will set in endemically by 2009 . Even if it were bottom(ish) and we knew it were bottom(ish) more or less there will be very little appetite either to lend or to buy …much less to speculate as heretofore .
The worst of the falls will indeed be over by 2009 they will nevertheless gently slide downwards for some time thereafter before we hit absolute total bottom .
If we are lucky it will be 2010 but I call late 2011 .
After that house prices , nationally , will rise at the inflation rate at least led by demand in the large cities and in the Pale.
House prices in the upper Shannon region will probably slide into 2014 / 2015 before they hit bottom . The rural renewal tax breaks will be up in the period 2010 -2012 after which these places will be dumped en masse.
Nominal or real bottom? (I prefer a real bottom myself, fnar, fnar).
My guess would be that prices have stopped falling by 2010, but that they won’t beat inflation until 2012 at the earliest and later if the real price drops have not been sufficient to bring affordability to below it’s long-term average (on the basis that drops tend to overshoot fair value).
Where is the scepticism? Where is the critical self doubt?
The Pin has become enamoured with itself.
Some posters seem to believe that having judged correctly that property was overvalued (albeit getting the timing of the downturn wrong by 3-4 years in most cases) - qualifies them to issue off-the-cuff predictions about the behaviour of markets in 5 or 6 years time.
How foolish. And how strange that one of the chief sins of the permanent bulls - wildly nonsensical futurology - should also be a weakness of the supposedly sceptical bears.
Currently have my eye on a property,when it drops another 20% i will seriously consider buying,how long that takes is anybody’s guess. All down to a no. of factors really,if it comes off the market or someone else buys it at the current price, so be it.Then i will look for something else, it’s a buyers market after all !.
2010 minimum. Remember folks that we have had the biggest rises recorded and that it may just take much longer to fall to get back at the bottom.
That said, it could be longer than 5 years due to above. Obviously i hope a bit shorter as i don’t want to wait forever to buy