independent.ie/opinion/colum … 38623.html
**When you hit rock bottom, the only way is up – but making next move is vital **Brendan Keenan
*Figures suggest we’ve turned the corner – now the hard work begins *
I have done a bit of bottom-fishing – the real kind, not the financial thing. But they have at least one thing in common. The fisher is apt to get snagged on the bottom and lose some expensive gear. The difficulty for both is knowing where the bottom is. Any ordinary punter still with the nerve to trade shares could have made spectacular profits over the past year. But the losses could have been just as great, with many shares finding new bottoms, often below what seemed possible.
Wise folk take no part in such risky activity. But all of us have an interest in identifying a bottom for the economy. And perhaps – just perhaps – we now can.
Certainly, there have been signs of stabilisation. Statistical data is of little use when looking for a turning point. Figures even three months in the past are too old.
The most up-to-date indicators for the economy are probably Exchequer tax returns and the monthly surveys of managers and consumers. Both seem to be saying that, while the economy has not quite stopped sinking yet, it is close to doing so.
…(cont’d)
Brendan Keenan picks bottom 15/04/2010
So the next move is vital but all we can do is hope for the best? Not much of a move required so…
In the sidebar of that story there are links to other recent articles by Brendan Keenan.
This one:
Brendan Keenan: Nama tough love is political poisonindependent.ie/opinion/colum … 33562.html
has me completely perplexed - especially this bit:
Government politicians could be forgiven for wanting to keep that figure as low as possible. We do not know their exact motives, but all the likely ones pointed in the same direction.
They do not want to own the banks, for fear they may never get rid of them. They do not want to add more than is necessary to a national debt already exploding because of the budget deficit. Perhaps they did want to support property prices. For sure, they did not want to be seen as putting the equivalent of the entire national development plan into the banks.
Postponing some of this – by paying more for the loans and under-capitalising the banks – would have been less shocking to the public, albeit more galling to the economists.
But there may be some theoretical merit in waiting for something to turn up – in this case the economy.
I fear he’s gone mad.
And todays post is brought to you by the letter …
nasdo
April 15, 2010, 12:07pm
#6
Data on property vultures or collapso as it is now called states otherwise, the amount of decreases seen is just as many as last year if not even worse. Even NAMA cant stop the fall from continuing for the next few years.
Maybe Keenan is talking about himself here?
I was just wondering the same thing. Could we finally see some quality articles?
It’s just a join the bandwagon type article, some of these economists are like sheep, when one goes through the gap the all follow, he’s just taking his cue from Dan McLaughlin (BoI), Alan Ahearne (DoF), John Fitzgerald (ESRI) who are towing the government spin doctors line and talking up the economy.
