Some of the 'Pin might find the following an enjoyable read:
economist.com/node/18250385?story_id=18250385
Property is widely seen as a safe asset. It is arguably the most dangerous of all, says Andrew Palmer
Mar 3rd 2011 |
THERE are plenty of candidates, from the ghost estates of Ireland to the foreclosure signs on American homes. But as a symbol of the property cycle that still distorts the world economy, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai (pictured above) takes some beating. The world’s tallest building is literally built on sand. Its height, at half a mile (838 metres), violates a basic rule of commercial property: when land is plentiful, build outward to use up as much of it as possible.
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The rich-world buyers of today ought to be more realistic about the future value of their homes, but attitudes are deeply entrenched. When asked to rate the safety of various investments, two-thirds of the respondents in the Fannie Mae survey classed homeownership as a safe investment, compared with just 15% for buying shares. Only savings accounts and money-market funds, both of which enjoyed an explicit government guarantee during the financial crisis, scored higher than homes. Homeowners who were “under water” on their mortgages (ie, they owed more than their properties were worth) were just as sure as everyone else that housing was a safe investment.
If the Burj Khalifa shows that memories of property cycles are short, the Fannie Mae survey suggests that some of the lessons are never taken on board at all. Given the state of residential property around the rich world, perhaps the victims are suffering from post-traumatic amnesia.
This week the Economist podcast features an interview with Alan Barrett (sp?) of the ESRI
Neffa
March 9, 2011, 9:51pm
3
It also shows (there’s a graph in the article in the magazine) that using l/term price/rent ratios, Ireland is the closest of the “crash” markets to being back to “normal” pricing , less than 10% out now.
Neffa:
It also shows (there’s a graph in the article in the magazine) that using l/term price/rent ratios, Ireland is the closest of the “crash” markets to being back to “normal” pricing , less than 10% out now.
With 300,000 empties and 10s of thousands more in serious arrears…that’s fucking depressing.
Simba
March 9, 2011, 10:24pm
6
From that article: “Rent in Dublin rose in 2010”.
My ass .
Bigby
March 10, 2011, 12:32pm
8
but remove the artificially-supported rents and then what happens?