Britain leaving the European Union.


#1

Continue…


#2

If there has to be a vote by parliament to trigger Article 50, how do you think that would play out? Would it have to go to both the Commons & Lords?

Do you think Labour will remain a pro-EU party into the future? What bits of it are left at least?


#3

Here’s how it will play out .

6-12 months of phony war where everyone sees what’s on offer.

A framework exit agreement reached Spring European Council 2018. Very, very like EEA but not called that. Concessions on migration and budget contributions. Probably no Article 50 triggered.

Parliament insists deal is put to British people summer 2018 . PM May campaigns every weakly for exit on negotiated terms. Narrow loss, UK stays in.

Please return in exactly 2 years time to see if I am wrong .


#4

Hmmm.

Trump or Clinton??


#5

Trump looked like value at 5/1.

Not so sure anymore at 5/4.

TBH it probably comes down to 5 or 6 swing states. TBH I don’t follow it closely enough to call.

Nate Silver of 538 says it is also too soon until there are enough polls in these key states.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele … ame-thing/


#6

LOL this made my day

Bitcoin is now less volatile than the British Pound
bloomberg.com/news/articles … ency-chart

:smiley:


#7

Donald is close to 4/1 on betfair, nothing like 5/4 (thankfully!)

(4/1 is a 20% probability, pretty low in a two horse race).


#8

Lower than 538 gives him even. Good odds.


#9

Great, my wife and I have been lining up a move to the UK for a three year stint. We’ll go ahead with it as things have already been set up but on the plus side our purchasing power has been boosted by the sterling drop but on the other hand it may save us more to rent than buy if their market is going Chernobyl!


#10

Pretty much inline when you adjust for slippage…

https://s31.postimg.org/3kq9spikb/Screen_Shot_2016_07_09_at_16_40_09.png

he hasn’t got a fcking hope


#11

They were the same initial odds for Brexit.
What Trump and Brexit have in common is that people likely to vote for either risk being called ‘racist’ if they openly admit to it.

So they shut up.
Until casting their ballots.


#12

I was under the impression that negotiations couldn’t even begin, let alone an agreement be reached, before Article 50 is triggered. I imagine the EU will be pressing for it to happen as soon as the new PM is in place, i.e. October at the latest. The Brits might string it out to January, but no further. Shouldn’t take much more than two months to see if I am wrong. :smiley:


#13

Disagree, electoral college is different to a referendum – on popular vote Trump might be closer, but not on the electoral college. He’s a complete fcking moron and that becomes clearer with every week, Hillary will eat him in the debates. Read one piece last week that thought he could quit if the debates are humiliating and he thinks he’ll get decimated in November… that that is even a possibility shows how weak a character he actually is.

I remember the right-wing-loons on this forum four years ago talking confidently about Romney winning… well he was crushed, fully expect the same again.


#14

There are opinions out there now that EU will not want it triggered until after French elections next May (I believe)… not sure how accurate those rumblings are, but if we get to next Summer without an Article 50 activation, then there’s plenty of fudge to justify a second referendum and Remain would win that in style.


#15

Brexit seems like a bad thing for Trump, really. By November, the UK is likely to be an object lesson in the downsides of voting for the wacky anti-establishment option that wants to break things.


#16

Well, not officially, or at least there’ll be resistance to negotiations pre-article 50. The EU will certainly be keen for invocation as soon a possible, but they don’t actually have that much of a mechanism to force it, if May digs in her heels.

If Leadsom wins, all bets are off. She seems genuinely crazy.


#17

Based on ?


#18

Angela Eagle has now thrown her hat into the Labour leadership ring. Wants to create a nation of all the talons :open_mouth:


#19

Yeah her slagging of May not having kids was pretty brutal.


#20

https://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/66834189.jpg

Leadsom has Tebbit’s (grudging) support. That’s worth something in the shires.

May is a complete fantasist and a charlatan. The hottest circle in hell is for the half hearted. She kept her head down during the brexit debate and said she was a “reluctant remainer”.