Britain leaving the European Union.


#3742

Its called ‘Austerity’ and its been around a while.

Its not suprising that Irish posters cannot understand others actively opposing the socialisation-of-losses-and-privatisation-of-profits matra of the EU; you’ve swallowed it without a whimper.
Any change now and you start to look like mugs. Better double down on the ‘look-at-dem-gobshites’ line, otherwise you could end up looking really stupid.

There was narry a protest, electoral or otherwise, save the de facto mass expulsion of 10s of thousands of your young people when you went down.
Funny that, the Brits putting up a fight, starting with electoral defiance, to break from an empire and the Irish telling them where they’re going wrong…
Youse are well managed, arent ye?
Herded, even.

Ireland hadnt the bollox to stand up for itself against the banks… sure you were offering to bail out half of Europe before the EU stepped in and tried to stop you.
I think the Brits move is ‘risky’ but there is no way, no how they’ll take criticism from such a supine, craven, mindless populace.
Nor should they.

Liek some posts on this thread, everytime I’m home I’m astonished at how people can be so well educated and yet so ignorant at the same time… Lets just call it ‘charm’, shall we?

Nothing at stake for the ‘elites’ in a hard Brexit, eh?

Real Stockholm Syndrome stuff. Cognitive dissonance ahoy!


#3743

I believe some 70% of those who emigrated during the recession, including myself left jobs, and many like myself returned to jobs, and some like myself left again for further career reasons. It’s not the EUs or anyone’s fault but ours that we let our property job market expand to unhealthy proportions whereby 15% of the workforce was engaged directly in construction and another 7/8% in ancillary industries to property development. I think someone else posted here that the average for a construction workforce for the average economy was around 8/9%.

The north of England has seen massive post industry population decline too yet they swallowed the line hook and sinker that is was the EUs fault.


#3744

Not much wrong in that…


#3745

Yawn, West brexiteers :wink:
(who’ve clearly never lived in England…)

Seriously though, what are we going to do when there’s a hard border on the island? Play pretend?


#3746

Customs posts I guess.

Regional unemployment in the border areas will plummet with all the customs staff we’ll need! Of we’ll be able to hire Irish citizens from NI too. Quiet an unusual border in being able to be staff from either side.


#3747

Can someone explain to me what the problem with the border question is about ?
Who wants one more, the British or EU ?


#3748

We don’t know yet what level of border control, if any will be required past March next year because the UK still doesn’t know what relationship it wants with the EU 25 months after starting the two year countdown clock to leaving the bloc.

If March rolls around next year without an trade agreement or even transition towards a trade agreement, then the UK becomes as external to us as any non-EU/EEA/EFTA member. If we let UK goods enter our EU market without customs charges then any country could sue for the same access under WTO rules. Same applies to traffic going the other way. Considering the UK only accounts for 11% and falling of our export market, our EU market is far more important as we actually export more to Belgium than the UK.

Also too is the certification of UK exports to the EU. If the UK doesn’t accept EU food quality controls then we have only their word that they’re complying. Consider that 90% of their vets in the meat and dairy are EU immigrants then you can see where standards will start slipping just with staff shortages alone!

If you remember the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001 cooperation between governments was crucial in controlling the outbreak, the general countryside shutdown in ireland contained the problem to just one farm, whereas Northern Ireland had been more affected. If EU standards and quality aren’t been adhered to after March 2019 then all UK produce will have to undergo the same kind of onsite verification that Argentina signed up to allow their beef be sold in the EU again.


#3749

Unless the UK caves entirely, an act which would, based on current sentiment, be political suicide, there will either be a hard border or a dilution of the Union.

This will be insisted upon by the EU, because to do otherwise and allow one of the pillar states cecede without seeking to impose serious economic consequences on it, would be to pave the way for the imminent demise of the entire European project in its current aspirational superstate (and beyond) phase. Such a scenario would herald the likely secession of Italy and possibly Hungary and Poland within one or two electoral cycles (IMO).

That Paddy can’t get his little head around the fact that the same Germans and others who fiscally rogered him on behalf of ‘the Morkesh’ a few short years ago, (and who continue to roger his children) doesn’t actually give a fuck about farmers in Fermanagh or Monaghan or indeed about a minor league peace process in a statelet with a smaller population than Berlin or indeed Bucharest is neither here nor there… Stockholm syndrome how are ya…but what would you expect from a ruling class who cared more about the price of their fucking houses than they did about the generation from whom they stole a decade and more.

Of course the most likely way out of such a hard border debacle would of course be for the North to enter into some form of arrangement with the rest of the island beyond the UK. But currently the political numbers are not favourable toward such an outcome. Nontheless it is one or the other i.e. Hard border or a softening/break up of the Union.

In my opinion the EU will favour whichever option seeks to humiliate the UK more i.e. The notion that they care less about Ireland is laughable and is only capable of being believed by a nation with the collective mentality of an abused child or battered wife i.e. ‘he has changed’ . So the EU’s preferred outcome will depend on where they view lies the most potential for ritual political and economic humiliation of the U.K. Of course whether or not they will be in a position to achieve their objective remains to be seen. What’s not in doubt however is that the manouvreing around the Irish border has littlw or nothing to do with safeguarding the interests of the Irish people.


#3750

The English do not care about the impact of a border in Ireland. For the tories, a hard border would trash the Anglo-Irish agreement, resulting in a return to warring camps in Ulster. This would be an ideal outcome for the Tories, as it would guarantee electoral majorities.

The guarantee of talks failure and a hard border is also the end game of the hard brexiteers and their Russian backers. Personally, a number of them stand to gain financially like Mogg who has positioned his off shore companies to benefit.

While the EU is unsympathetic to the problem child of the UK, it is tied in collective decision-making. The need for unanimity on a withdrawal agreement, means there is limited scope for maneuver.

The English want a hard border, but to blame the EU for it.


#3751

Operation Banner essentially took up where the retreat from Aden ended, many who had fought the last withdrawal from far empire moved on to fight in the near empire. I doubt the UK could deploy 20.000 troops in NI now like they did in 1970, especially when contingency planning for a hard Brexit included pulling back field generators from Afghanistan just to keep the lights on in NI.

The hard brexiters don’t have plans, only aspirations. One EU official said of the Checkers paper that it could be mistaken for an EU membership application! :smiley:

The troubles were the British governments attempt to exert its authority by force, in that the GFA was a UK surrender.

The Loyalist are at the core of the Brexit fantasy. They’re a cargo culture to the British Empire, a time when the UK was a terms giver and not a terms taker. Trashing the GFA won’t bring back the empire, but as a cult they see no other way to exist. In many ways the GFA is the pin that’s keeping the UK together. Pull it out and dominos fall.


#3752

All the knives are out on the Sunday front pages:

  • Betrayal of Brexit (Sunday Express)
  • Rees-Mogg says PM has broken trust of public
  • Boris Johnson is preparing a bombshell speech over resignation
  • Ex-minister: I quit over secret plan to foil Brexit (Sunday Telegraph)
  • Davis brands PM ‘dishonest’ over his Brexit alternative (The Sunday Times)
  • Mandelson joins Brexiters with attack on May’s EU ‘humiliation’ (The Observer)
  • May: Back me or there’ll be no Brexit (The Mail on Sunday)

What a mess! The Brexiteers are incandescent. Even Labour Remainers think May’s approach is the worst of all worlds. And those in between, the people backing May and soft Brexit, are flogging a dead horse as her “Alt Max Fac” can’t possible be acceptable to the EU. But at least you can always rely on the Brit press to twist the knife.


#3753

Brexit Britain is out of options. Our humiliation is painful to watch

theguardian.com/commentisfr … _clipboard

Not sure what else to say, the alternatives appear to be all closed off. TINA means tina.


#3754

That’s not a bad article but it’s still quite amusing to see the British right on left/liberal chattering classes who have spent decades shitting on and denigrating their own country and society finally coming around to the realization that their incessantly negative labeling of Britain may actually be about to become reality. I’m reminded of the English work colleagues who lectured incessantly about the evils of the various privileges they enjoyed vis a vis non white Europeans etc etc being outraged by the Brexit result mainly on the basis of the possibility of their visa free travel to Europe being taken away ie. That same ‘privilege’ being reduced somewhat.

The forces behind Trump appear intent on dismantling what was the post WW2 global hegemony in which Europeans got to live the good life on the back of American military might…on the understanding that those same Europeans basically staying away from anything that resembled any form of political extremism, be it right or left leaning.

Someone within the American regime (possibly an element within the military who didn’t share Hillary Clintons love for multiple simultaneous invasions and wars) may have decided to pull the plug on that particular arrangement. Ultimately , what many within the echo chamber that constitutes public discourse across Western Europe appear not to be aware of is that the world beyond Western Europe has changed immeasurably over the past decade. From Phillipines to India to Russia to China, right across the muslim world and now to the USA, the movement has been in the opposite direction to that of Western Europe. Western Europe, with its ever softening societal norms, while still the best place to live (as per the reasoning behind the unprecedented levels of inward migration) is actually the anomaly in global political terms.

Who’s to say therefore that the US military (or whoever is pulling the strings) hasnt taken a look at a hungry, ever growing China, a strengthening Russia and a fattening, softening Western Europe and decided that it’s future interests lie somewhere other than where they have lain since 1945? Perhaps, from a longer term perspective, an alliance with Russia (if achievable) in opposition to the Chinese (the coming threat) would prove more beneficial than the maintenance of a one sided relationship with an EU bloc that appears to be in decline and which offers very little militarily? Indeed, if Russia is on board as an ally, then the need for strong allies in Western Europe becomes less of an imperative.

If such came to pass over the course of an 8 year Trump Presidency,Brexit could actually prove to be a blessing over the longer term…like a drunk man in a pub who wanders out mistakenly and wakes up in his own bed, remembers nothing, but then hears that the pub burnt down in his absence killing everyone inside. In other words the EU is on seriously shaky ground at the moment. And while Brexit is risky and may cause problems for the UK in the short term, over the longer term it could actually turn out to be a stroke of luck. Still, obviously, nothing is certain at this point


#3755

Hmm, probably only if you think there’s a first movers advantage in being below Puerto Rico in the US pecking order.


#3756

Trump is a weird sort of puppet with far more strings attached than is normal for puppet…this by way of explaining the contortions he goes through daily or even hourly. The white house is full of whackjob puppeteers that he personally hired to do the pulling.

In the end the Chinese will hit his weak spot (probably Iowa soybean farmers to be precise) and his 8 year reich plan will implode along with the soybean industry. Here we’ll keep the head down quietly until the cunt has gone. :slight_smile:


#3757

She refuses to consider the ingenious advice of the US President - to ‘sue the EU’ instead of negotiating. May looks fairly exasperated at this stage - and doesn’t care that her personal relationship with Trump is FUBAR because it’s not worth much.

Brexit is alike a Rubic’s cube that never worked - but May has been handed it without being told it was impossible. Just as she’s wondering whether this cube was ever right in the first place, she’s got an idiot shouting ‘Sue Rubic - just sue him.’

Maybe it’s as useful a suggestion as any XX


#3758

Its working out well for Puerto Rico… XX


#3759

There is no such thing as a soft Brexit, the only Brexit that can happen is a hard one or none at all. The EU, a regulatory entity, simply cannot undo the various treaties and agreements made between it’s members over the last few decades just to satisfy requirements of the British. As a poster mentioned previously, any deal they get would also then have to be given to Canada and others. Even a hard Brexit doesn’t mean the UK will no longer be affected by European regulations, take for example GDPR, after a hard Brexit British companies will still need to adhere by it if they want to business with European citizens, same as businesses in all countries, or if British citizens travel to the European union, their government simply won’t be able to influence any changes to it after Brexit, the exact same applies across the board from Food regulation to manufacturing. Brexiteers seem to think that Brexit means the EU ceases to exist, it will still be there and the British will still need to transact with it and therefore have to abide by a lot of its rules, like it or not. Brexit is merely an illusion of autonomy in a Globalised world.

I like the Golf club analogy used by I think it was ‘Pouca’ in the FT comments, my own take on the analogy:

Club member: My family and I don’t like the way you make your rules, We don’t want to be in the club anymore.
Club committee: OK no problem, you know that means you won’t be able to get the benefits of membership nor play on the course anymore, apart from the open day we have once a month for non-members, you’ll still need to follow the rules on that day though.
Club Member: No we want to play all the time and we’d like some of the benefits of membership, we just don’t want to follow your rules anymore nor do we want to pay your fees.
Club committee: Is it that you want to follow completely different rules?
Club Member: No, we’ll play by the same rules we just like the notion of setting our own, we just don’t want you setting rules we need to abide by or to pay any fees.
Club committee: Hmmm, ok. Well we’ll continue to set the rules for our club without you, you just won’t have a voice anymore. And we can’t give you any special status, you’re either a member or not a member there is no in between, even if we were willing we are unable to change the rules just for you.
Club Member: How about we follow rules A & B, but not C&D, can we play whenever we want then, for free?
Club committee: No, if you want to play the course you have to play by the rules, we have built these rules over decades and everyone agrees to abide by them, we simply cannot make an exception just for you.
Club Member: OK OK, I promised them we would get the benefits of membership even after we left so how about we follow B, C and D, but not A?
Club committee: No, if you want to play the course you have to play by the rules.
Club Member: OK OK, how about we follow A, C and D, but not B?
Club committee: No, if you want to play the course you have to play by the rules. Etc etc for 2 years
Club member: OK so we have come up with a white paper that details how we are going to follow some of the rules and not others and still get a lot of the benefits of club membership including playing on the course and not paying fees, we have torn ourselves apart negotiating with ourselves on it before we sent it over on the assumption you will say yes because we are crossing our own red lines here, so please throw us a bone, some of the family are even saying we are not really leaving the club.
Expected response: You are leaving the club as per your own request, and as stated numerous times already if you want the benefits of membership you have to play by the rules, all of them. You’re membership expires next March for which you still owe us fees, see you at open day after that and don’t forget, even on open day you still have to follow the rules.

There simply cannot be a soft Brexit, at least what the British perceive that to be, either exit as a third country with a trade deal similar to other non-members or don’t exit at all.


#3760

Yes, but TINA’s not for Turning. EU turn if EU want to


#3761

There can be a no deal brexit, with WTO rules. For everyone. Next March.

So BMW would need to apply tariffs to sell into the considerable (for them) UK car market. Johnny Walker will need to impose tariffs to sell it’s Scotch to Italian bars. The leave side maintain this will hit the EU more than it will hit fortress Britain.

For Ireland that will mean concentrating on a dozen big importers/exporters who make up the vast majority of the trade back and forth between Ireland and the UK. With tweeks after that for the small players cross border.

So for a good 35-40% of the British electorate this is the alternative.