Britain leaving the European Union.


#4060

What you’re saying, is that Brexit (whatever that ends up being) probably won’t lead to systemic collapse.

What I’m saying, is that failure to have a withdrawal agreement, which includes a transition period, in place by the 29th of March next year would absolutely lead to systemic collapse. Certainly within the UK, and it would have very severe repercussions outside of the UK.

However, the most likely outcome, in my opinion, is that a withdrawal agreement will be reached, which will include a backstop provision very close to the current proposed wording. This will provide for a two year transition period during which the UK will have pretty much the same rights and obligations as they currently do.

It will also include some waffle about the EU’s intention strike a uniquely special trade deal (in so far as this is possible with the UK’s redlines).

This will be presented (a) to the leavers in the UK parliament as “take it or no Brexit”, and (b) to remainers in parliament as “take it or no withdrawal agreement”. Nobody will care what the DUP think.

Then one of two things will happen.

(a) Either the Parliament will reject it, the government will fall, a general election will be announced, and the UK will ask nicely for an extension to the Article 50 period to allow the election be held. What the election will be fought on will depend on the public mood, but you’d hope some hard questions about where the fuck all of this is heading might be asked; or

(b) And I believe this is more likely, parliament will accept the deal.

If the deal is accepted, in early April, the UK will sit down as a third country, with seasoned EU trade negotiators to negotiate the first of their wonderful Global Britain Trade deals. They will initially request a unicorns and fairies Canada+++ deal based on imagination and good will from all sides. They will not be in a position to threaten to withhold future payments. They will not be in a position to threaten to partition Ireland.

They will be eviscerated.

No other country will enter into trade negotiations with them until their future relationship with Europe is clear.

And the clock will be ticking towards the end of the transition period in 2021, after which, you guessed it, the Treaties will cease to apply.

Once the UK population finally realise that absolutely nothing that is on the table is anywhere close to as good as their current arrangement
(surely the penny has to drop before the end of 2019) I see at least three possible outcomes (presented in order of least likely to most likely):

(a) The public will direct their anger towards the politicians who brought them to this point and demand that EU accession talks begin immediately;

(b) The public agree that the best they can hope for is (i) a Canada style deal which would disastrous for integrated supply chains and their services industry, or (ii) a Norway style deal which would be humiliating, expensive, and they’d still have to deal with those slightly brown people who talk funny; or

© The public demand that the government negotiate harder so that they can have their cake and eat it. To allow this take place the government ask for a good long extension to the transition period, with progressively fewer rights, but the same amount of obligations. Ten years ought to do it. We’re not transitioning to nowhere, just transitioning to the point that no one in charge can be blamed for the problem.

So, yeah, I fully agree that Brexit probably won’t result in systemic collapse.

So long as a withdrawal agreement is in place by March 29th next year.


#4061

A very good summary.

The Breixteers in England are still (although perhaps slightly less than before) wittering on about ‘absurd’ and ‘silly’ notions that UK aircraft could be grounded, or truck drivers prevented from driving on the continent, or animal products stopped at EU borders. Like Poacher above, they assume that because it ‘makes sense’ to keep things as they are in these areas, it will magically happen, even with no deal. But as the EU patiently and repeatedly point out, all these things require a legal framework, outside of which the UK has chosen to place itself. And in the absence of new arrangements which replace existing legal agreements, there are certain ineluctable consequences.


#4062

I think driving licenses are actually an area that will be somewhat insulated from disruption. It’s governed by a UN agreement, to which all EU countries are signatories. The EU driving license format only smooths the process within the UN agreement so the UK exiting the EU won’t nullify the original UN agreement. A UK license will still have been issued by the national authority of a signatory to the UN agreement, therefore it is valid in other countries that are signatories. The most that can be required is that you obtain an IDP to go with it. I’ve had to do this to drive in other countries outside the EU and it is a relatively painless process. Just fill in a short form and send it together with a photo, a copy of your license, and €15, to the AA in Dublin and you’ll get an IDP back in the post a few days later. Then you’re good to go for a year. The same for insurance. The green card system has existed since before the EU and covers more countries than the EU. There’s nothing to stop UK insurers, or indeed insurers from other countries, offering UK drivers green card coverage to drive in other parts of Europe, within the EU or outside it.

There are many major areas for potentially catastrophic disruption but I think the driving abroad one is way overplayed.


#4063

Part of me thinks that the British public won’t truly understand how interdependent they are after four decades of economic integration with the EU until they see unmistakable effects on their shelves. I won’t be surprised if this thing goes right to the brink. It would be foolish for use to not prepare for a hard Brexit.


#4064

Indeed it is, thanks Evil_g!

Absolutely, and I think the reason is the differing legal systems - the UK and part of the Irish system are principles based to a degree with a common sense element underpinning (man on the Clapham omnibus). This has precedent. The European (and rest of the world, largely) have rules based systems. They cannot turn a blind eye to something that doesn’t make sense. Equally, you’re far less likely to get off (e.g. corporate manslaughter is more vigorously pursued because that’s what the law says you should do). Neither is ideal and I’m not sure you can mix them. I believe that Ireland has a mix - some inherited from the UK, some transposed from Europe. I may be wrong on all of this, but that’s my gut feeling.

The Brexiters are myopic about the consequences because it’d never happen in England that a silly law would get in the way of going about your daily business. Why can’t Europe be more like England! :neutral_face:


#4065

Back on the legal topic, ‘common law’ was the phrase I was grasping for above. And it appears we are still fully common law, so there you go. Let the loopholes abound. Anyway, I’ve never been more pro and agreement than I was after reading this and seeing the picture…
rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/091 … al-system/


#4066

It is to be sure EvilG - Yer marvellous!
Praise from Yogi?
Theres no higher accolade on The Pin y’know.
(Except getting banned. At least I’d imagine so. Its never happend to me. Obviously.)

Glad to see youve caught up with one of the real issues, Yogi.
Youre really coming along!

What’ll Europe do without the Brits listening systems, though?
Theres another clump for your pipe…

Gas crack the whole Brexit thing, isnt it?
Sure I was laughing me arse of this morning when the BBC led with Carneys “35% house price drop”.
Honest to God I was snotting into the auld Ready Brek!

Jaysus didnt the whole thing take off on the auld Social Media and by lunch time they’d figured that 75% of the country thought it was a good idea.
There were remainers, millenials, pensioners, transgenders, londoners… the whole shower was starting to ‘get it’.
Even Kamel Ahed (or whoever did the Carney interview and article) had to backtrack on Twitter.

I swear to God but the whole thing vanished from the BBC website soon after.

You’d swear the fuckwits at the BBC/BoE were so detatched from reality that they thought this was a bad thing.

And there - for those who doubt - is the vast, vast gap between the the governing and the goverened in England.

If I were in Ireland, and I were exposed to the UK economy (thats you everyone!), I’d be realising that a bad deal for the UK is going to make 2008 look like a picnic.

**Time to cut the bravado and start supporting the UK in return for a (term defined) UK subsidised UI.
**


#4067

edit: Pah


#4068

rte.ie/news/analysis-and-co … rg-summit/


#4069

Over on eureferendum.com

eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86994


#4070

Hmm, so what you’re all telling me is that my prediction that the UK would after Brexit be, “5% poorer and 10% happier” is going to be a bit wide of the mark ? :stuck_out_tongue:

Meanwhile Sweden (Yes Sweden !) is lurching to the right. And the EU fails to adequately address the wave of sub-Saharan Africans as it struggles to square it’s instinctive but toxic empathy with the reality that it has to look after its own citizens first. But migration is just a dripping tap - commentators here and elsewhere can happily label it as hysteria until the sink overflows. And admittedly Britain is the EU country that had widespread riots and looting in recent years.

What I’m saying is that middle England may just stick with their initial decision to unhook themselves from Crazy Merkel’s toxic empathy. If I was Theresa May I’d be doubling down on a push to the right on issues like migration.


#4071

Indeed, and by tieing themselves to unrestricted immigration from the Commonwealth. That’ll show johnny european foreigner he can’t mess with the plucky english!


#4072

I always see the Brexiteers referred to in this thread as ‘English’ but it’s easy to forget that the Welsh voted to leave as did large numbers of both Scotland and NI.
This seems to be very much a UK decision.


#4073

It’s also worth remembering that much of the “home” counties voted remain.
This is very much a vote based on the demographic make up of the population, those who benefited most from the “free market” voted remain, while those who were largely ignored by the elite and were losing out due to the “race to the bottom” voted leave.

If the referendum was about allowing immigration (both form EU & non EU), the results would have been similar, as in no to further immigration.


#4074

I think it would have a been wider No to immigration. They thought they were voting against Muslim immigration but they’re going to get more from the commonwealth. They’re only marginally reducing it by stopping Merkel’s whims.

And if Brexit goes wrong you have a good chance to see race riots / pogroms in North of England. England has a recent history of rioting and a long history of religious pogroms. There is effectively apartheid going on in places like Bradford. And the kind of people in the indigenous community who might do it would be delighted to get payback for the sexual abuse and grooming scandals. That won’t be forgotten quickly.


#4075

Yes Evil G’s post is a worthy attempt at fleshing out the mechanics of what may happen should cirxumstances play themselves out in a particular manner.

However, it is one which appears to afford a degree of reverence to the legal and administrative practices that underpin the functioning of the EU and the manner in which it may conduct a relationship with the U.K. Ie yes that scenario is a possibility (and kudos to him/her for sticking his/her neck out and stating exactly what they believe will happen), but it is one (IMO) that is predicated on the adoption/maintenance of a particular political stance on the part of those charged with responsibility for charting the course of the post Brexit UK and EU.

In other words, (IMO) a degree of pragmatism and goodwill on the part of those involved woukd be quite capable of overcoming any obstacles that are likely to be encountered. For example consider the manner in which a Framework Decision is adopted and applied to Irish law. Generally work practices change absolutely within Givernment Departments,sometimes within the courts maybe within the Gardai, to name a few. There is generaly a ‘window’ period during which uncertainty applies, ongoing legal advice is required and back and forth continues over a period between the contacts in the respective agencies and member states with a view to ironing out such difficulties. The processes themselves may be held up for a time but they don’t grind to a halt. New processes are established, new precedents are set and newer, broader knowledge is accumulated. Quite simply, people find solutions.

Obviously this is heightened and magnified in the case of Brexit but given the fact that people’s livelihoods rather than mere administrative or legal practices will be at stake I would be confident that timelines for solutions could be a lot shorter than those associated with the workload of the average civil servant.

However, this is obviously based on the existence of the political will to do so. And there obviously exists the likelihood that the EU side may understably not wish to find solutions that could potentially render Brexit somewhat more succesful than would otherwise be the case. Likewise, it may not actually be in the personal interest of the individuals charged with negotiating on behalf of the U.K. to see Brexit succeed…and that some ‘systemic collapse’ up north or wherever might be just the ticket in PR terms.

Nontheless, my position is that such an outcome would be as a result of a political failure on the part of the individuals in question rather than any real inability on the part of people to arrive at solutions (in the short term) that would allow them to get on with the day to day business of living and trading with each other.


#4076

No they didn’t. London voted to remain.

All of Essex, nearly all of Kent and about half of Sussex voted leave.

There is a ring of leave-voting districts that almost encircles London.

Look here.

People can understand why places on the east coast of England with low levels of education voted leave.

It is much harder to understand why Aylesbury - which is extremely prosperous and has done very well from low trade barriers and inward migration - voted to leave.


#4077

This is a perfect example why many people in the UK have lost faith in the elite and their leaders as they are being stigmatized as being “uneducated” because they voted the wrong way.

Many people have absolutely no idea what the “man in the street” is thinking and in many cases do not care, so just dismiss them as “uneducated”.


#4078

Educational attainment is highly correlated with voting to remain.

yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted/


#4079

Having moved to England just after the vote this is the thing that I most struggle with. The media here is just a partisan punch and judy show. In conversation the topic is barely mentoned by the average Brit and when it is broached I find their grasp on the EU is extremely limited, and don’t even get me started on their ignorance of their own country! And many of these are professionals I’m talking about, many of whom have worked abroad!

National media is a battlefield, whereas sometimes just listening to the local radio is where you’ll find out what the public are thinking. In a recent local radio vox pop both leave and remain voters up my way all expressed the desire to “just get on with it, stop mucking about.” I don’t believe there really is an appetite outside the remain bubbles for a “peoples vote”, if anything it’s probably rubbing people up the wrong way. Corbyn’s absolutely right to not push on this.

I reckon on the ground ending of Freedom of Movement is the great masses redline around which they’ll coalesce if pushed. Many conflated non-EU immigration with Freedom of Movement. Yeah, they haven’t fully understood it means the dream of retiring to the Playa da Blackpool becomes harder but then they mentally never viewed those stomping grounds as foreign anyway!

This is why I reckon we’re heading for a customs deal, and tough shít DUP, you’re getting an Irish sea border. If the DUP collapse the government they’ll get one with Corbyn anyway so that’s why I reckon the DUP will spin it as a compromise somehow. Call it damage limitation after bringing forward the prospect of a border poll by a few generations!