Britain leaving the European Union.


#4228

That friction has already happened in some protestant communities in Ireland. African protestants are tending to establish their own churches as the Irish churches in the republic aren’t godly enough. An African service can last hours, be more like a Feile rather than the limp wristed weekly tea and buns by the clock meetup. Testimonies of gods help are as much about immigrants geeing eachother up with stories of financial and social progress. An orange order march would be rather tame and pointless to them.

Knowing people from staunch DUP land I don’t think we in the republic fully appreciate that if partition ends loads of them will clear out and there’s nowt that we can do or say that will stop them, and we certainly should not berate ourselves for that.


#4229

Where will they go? Their image of the motherland is a place that doesn’t exist - at least not in England. Maybe some corner of Scotland?
Best bet is US Bible Belt. Give them all special J1s so they can try it out…


#4230

Depends on what Britain offers them. I could see a good few of the hardcore rural types heading for the Australian wheat belt, plenty of evangelical movements like Hillsong to slot into, there was even a UVF off shoot in Alice Springs! White Australia is essentially a planter culture so they’ll fit right in with all the relocated white south africans and zimbabweans.

It’s amazing how easy it is to get a refugee visa to Australia if you’re white, although they don’t call it that! I went along to one Uniting Church service, which would be a traditional moderate Methodist/Presbyterian mix in Oz and it was full of the worst racist dregs of empire, the first greeting I got was “you’re very welcome, we need more of your type, too many blacks here”. I didn’t go back.

There’s already a small evangelical movement in the republic which is mopping up the most spiritually needy from all creeds, but like the white imperialist dregs in Australia, a loyalist sharing a pew with a taig might not be their type of christianity.


#4231

Its pretty incredible to think that something like a mass exodus could be a possibility.

Personally I dont see why we couldnt all co-habit the island peacefully. Its only two generations since men from both traditions were dying alongside each other in trenches in Flanders.

Id be of the view that the loss of the broader mass of the southern Anglo-Irish post-partition was a huge loss to the southern State upon its creation. Wasnt it Yeats who made an excellent speech in the Seanad (I think) on that very subject in which he described the reactionary tendencies of the fledgling State as being part of the reason for their departure. Hopefully history will not be repeated.


#4232

Time is ripe to reappraise Eirexit and Treaty of 1921
by Liam Weeks and Mícheál Ó Fathartaigh

irishtimes.com/culture/books/time-is-ripe-to-reappraise-eirexit-and-treaty-of-1921-1.3660376


#4233

Eirexit LMAO…


#4234

That’s quite surprising to me. What I heard from a former member was that the Uniting Church in Australia was quite doctrinally bland, and socially and politically liberal. On checking their Wikipedia page, I get the impression it might be different from one local congregation to another. Is it possible you just encountered one of the more reactionary wings?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniting_C … a#Theology


#4235

The only news that matters today

faz.net/aktuell/politik/wahl-in-bayern/

Do you remember how support for the moderate political parties collapsed post '98 in the North. Same thing happening in Germany. All thanks to Merkel. But Germany, unlike NI, actually matters. Especially as this is what all you pro EU people are shackling yourselves to.

The collapse of the SPD vote is the mostly startling. Now #4. Just three times the Linke vote.

Although the parallels are not exact reading this book…

amazon.com/gp/product/1626540187/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_taft_p1_i0

… should be a sobering experience for those who think the future of the EU is all wine and roses.

All the interviews I’ve read about the reasons why the working class and lower middle class voters are voting AfD is eerily similar to the reasons given for the collapse of the moderate parties back in the late 1920’s. The big parties more interested in federal parliament politicking than listening to the concerns of the average voters.

I know the French, for one, are starting to do the balance sheet for the EU status quo and are preparing to bolt if and when the situation arises. This is the end game. The discussion is out in the open in Italy but is now starting to be discussed in the Netherlands and the nordics.

Would not be the first time Ireland painted itself into a corner by needlessly antagonizing traditional friends. I’m reminded of the League of Nations fiasco post '44 and the very public international humiliation of '46. Another of those great moments in modern Irish history you dont read about in Irish history books.


#4236

A quick google around has produced.
historyireland.com/20th-cen … 860591086/
“Sean Lester, Protestant nationalist, Irish diplomat, League of Nations High Commissioner in Danzig (Gdansk) and the last Secretary General of the League of Nations,
His final task as Secretary General was to hand over the remaining functions of the League to the United Nations and in 1946 to preside over its dissolution.”

So jmc, please elaborate as to what you mean in your last line.


#4237

Looks like the attempts of a deal have fallen flat.
bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45857258

The UK and EU say key issues remain unresolved following unscheduled Brexit talks in Brussels.
Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier met for more than an hour ahead of a crunch EU leaders' summit this week.
Mr Barnier tweeted that issues, such as how to avoid a hard border with Ireland, were "still open".
A UK government spokesman said UK and EU negotiators "have made real progress in a number of key areas".
"However there remain a number of unresolved issues relating to the backstop," he added.

I still think that they’ll throw Ireland into a “second State” position where the sea crossings (& Air) to all ports to the UK & Ireland will have some form of customs checks to verify the origin of goods to allow the border to remain “soft” and open.


#4238

Basically the LoN was wound up in 1945 when the UN was set up. After the official winding up of the LoN in 1946, the last session, all the non Axis LoN members who were not founding members of the UN were invited to join the UN. Ireland very pointedly was not invited to join the UN. It was treated as one of the Axis / Axis collaborationist countries and only invited to join the UN in 1955. Like Francos Spain.

Despite all Sean MacBrides preening and strutting in the late 1940’s/ early 1950’s Ireland was pretty much a pariah state during this period. Due to its utterly boorish behavior during the early stages of the Marshall Plan although MacBride may have got his committee title, which is all he cared about, almost all money was stopped. Ended up getting less than even Sweden or Switzerland.

The Council of Europe was a pointless taking-shop. Of which there were many back then. Other than that, nothing. It was not until after 1955 that the ROI started being reintegrated into the international scene. After MacBride was gone. He was more interested in getting honors and gongs from the Communists anyway. He was a great friend of the Soviets to the very end. Never seemed terribly bothered by the millions they killed or the the hundreds of millions they enslaved.

Which is why you will find no statues to him and he has been pretty much forgotten even though he was one of the three most influential politicians in the first 50 years of the state. Him, Dev, and Lemass. What a trinity.


#4239

Thanks for filling in the gaps.


#4240

I would have said keeping Ireland out of WW2 was the only unquestionably good thing De Valera did. But anyway, there was certainly widespread British inspired vindictiveness post WW2. Isn’t it ever thus ? When a small weak country doesn’t do “what it’s told” and “what’s expedient for everyone else”. Look at Greece.

Back to the present, a clear problem for the British is how transparent the UK strategy has been since Cameron left: agree as much as possible excluding Ireland questions , then put them under enormous pressure at the end to agree whatever suits us. They’re acting like they’re dealing with colonial natives. But the EU is the empire now and the EU is the one with the competent colonial civil service. As I’ve said before, it’s interesting to see what perfidious Albion does when traditional Divide and Conquer tactics don’t work. The answer seems to be…they go nuts.

If we’re bringing Hitler and the 1930s into mind about German crises, what’s the UK’s Weimar score these days ?

  • weak government.
  • beggar thy neighbour threat on tax policies
  • repeated humiliation (May and her current and former cabinet humiliate themselves regularly while also being humiliated by Arlene, Tusk, Trump, Varadkar ! , Drunkard etc)
  • edit - the Brexiteers spend their time crafting a complete fairytale Dolchstoß Legende; that “Brexit was lost on the Home front”, “the people were betrayed by their leaders”, “the war could have been won if only…,.” And other crap

#4241

In the real world, the UN’s original members had to have declared war on the Axis powers. So Ireland wasn’t included.

In 1946 Ireland unenthusiastically applied to join and was vetoed by the Soviet Union because of the lack of diplomatic relations between the two (due to fears of the UK’s reaction. Diplomatic relations were established in 1971).

There then developed a 9 year period when the US and Soviet Union mutually blocked expansion to new countries (just 5 new members were admitted in 9 years).

After Stalin’s death in 1953, the big two super powers agreed not to use their mutual veto and in 1955, 15 countries joined.

Outside of the UN, there was certainly bad feelings from the US Minister to Ireland, David Gray, over Ireland’s neutrality during the war and in the European Recovery Programme (Marshall Aid) Ireland got mostly loans rather than grants.

However, in the post-war period Ireland did regularise relations with Atlee’s government in the UK and that was huge for the country.

There’s other bits and piece in the period like formally establishing relations with a few countries and being a founding member the Council of Europe in 1949. Ireland was also invited to join NATO in 1949 but declined as it was considered that that would formally recognise Partition.

A small, poor, neutral country, not in a strategic location not making an international splash during the opening phase of the Cold War doesn’t seem remarkable to me one at all.


#4242

Squeaky Bum Time

Britain and EU fail to reach deal ahead of summit

irishtimes.com/news/world/u … -1.3663492


#4243

Spot on. Fudging the border question now would give the British a card that could, and would be, played at every turn during trade negotiations.

When they say that all sides should agree to use imagination and good will to avoid a hard border in all eventualities, what they mean is that they’d like to be in a position to withdraw their imagination and good will at any point over the next two years (well decade really because that’s how long it’s going to take). The British would have nothing to lose by pushing us under a bus at any moment that suited them.

This has been obvious since the outset.

Varadkar’s made some mistakes along the way (that pre-dawn photo op last december, some of his more triumphalist public statements) but on the whole I think his, and Iveagh House’s, strategy has been sound.

Quiet diplomacy even before Article 50 was triggered, ensuring that Ireland never slipped from the agenda. Allowing the British to first ignore, then down play, attempt to fudge, and finally dismiss as insoluble, the border question. Whilst all the time building and maintaining support at a European level, to the point that the EU have offered the deal of the century to Northern Ireland.

Of course it helps that other EU players have recognised the British strategy from the outset also. Many Member State’s have just as much institutional memory of shuffling colonial pawns around the board as Whitehall. They realise it’s not in their interests to let the British hold back the Irish card to be played at a time of their choosing. It’s always been clear that Barnier got this, but Macron’s public statements last month make it clear that he gets it too.

This could all still go badly wrong. The best case scenario is still shit for Ireland. But I can’t think of anything that could have been done better up to this point.


#4244

Another serious problem has been the way the UK agrees things and then ministers like Gove and Davis say, ‘well, we didn’t really’. Then May instructs them to grovellingly apologise. This is bad enough in a short deal making process, but in a long complicated one it’s terrible.

I’m waiting for the next Leo Hand Grenade - he enjoys lobbing these at the British, where he makes seemingly off the cuff catty, condescending statements about the UK on the steps of buildings when going into and during Summits criticising their Bona Fides. They hate this and their press accuse him of lacking respect and being inexperienced.

He won’t have forgotten that no one on the UK side slapped down Arlene for her ‘GFA is not sacrosanct’ comments. They let her backtrack a bit but they let the comments stay out there. That’s a change from them. Leo’s cattiness probably won’t be about the GFA. He’ll say something catty about something they’re really proud of - ‘the Russians actually beat Hitler, not you, and the Focke-Wolf 190 was better than the Spitfire hands down’ :stuck_out_tongue:


#4245

Should he tug his forelock or doff the cap to the clearly incoherent nonsense of hard core brexiters?
Last time he irked that brits was when he correctly pointed out planes could be grounded in a no deal scenario.


#4246

The Brits simply can’t put together a coherent position or an effective negotiating team with the current political balance. The only thing that could make this more surreal is Sinn Féin taking up their seats in Westminster, making a pact with half a dozen Labour MPs to cancel out the DUP, and voting with Theresa May on a sensible backstop.


#4247

They’re only short by 4 votes on their own without the DUP. SF could bring 7 to the table on their own. I hadn’t considered it but it would be the most bizarre thing to witness.

It’d never happen of course because she’s not guaranteed the full backing of her own party.