Britain leaving the European Union.


#4334

Is it not a qualified majority required on the EU side?

In the end Ireland will be told to play ball and be good Europeans.


#4335

I’ve no idea of the procedure but if member states think the Withdrawal Agreement is a “mixed agreement” covering national and EU competencies it has to go to each Member State to ratify in accordance with their own laws.

Given that the much less comprehensive Canadian trade deal was considered mixed I don’t see why the WA would not be. Though it’s fundamentally a political decision rather than a legal one. Politicians might be happy ratifying at the Council to buy 2 years’ Brexit peace.


#4336

The last bit doesn’t follow at all. Parliament doesn’t get to vote down a “No Deal”. Remember all the political shenanigans over the “meaningful vote”? This became Section 13, Sub-section 11, of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. The government can announce at any time that there is no prospect of concluding a deal with the EU or, if there is no agreement in principle by 21 Jan 2019, it must make such an announcement. Then within five days the government must propose how it intends to proceed. At that point, the Commons will consider the proposal and there will be a motion “in neutral terms”. That means the Commons can neither veto nor amend the proposal. The Lords will then go through a similar process.

Now, it may be that the government is under immense political pressure at that point, and it can choose to take the Commons’ views into account. But as it stands today, parliament cannot reject a “No Deal”. I don’t think it will have to wait until 21-Jan either. If there is no breaking of the deadlock in November (i.e. the next two weeks) there is no chance of an emergency EU summit in December, and it would seem sensible to acknowledge that “no deal” is upon us.

Theresa May has also reiterated today after JoJo’s resignation that there is no possibility of a second referendum. So clearly her head would have to roll before such a thing could happen. So it’s hard to see what the government proposal could be except to go ahead with no deal and crash out of the EU. Now, I would expect all hell to break loose at that point and anything could happen. But seeing as Corbyn favours a GE, even if the government was toppled you would be facing into a minimum six weeks of an election campaign.

So consider the timing. The “no deal” announcement process will take three weeks – five sitting days each for the government to come up with its proposals, and five each for the Commons and Lords debates. Even if this was all put in train at the end of November, you’d be looking at an election in mid-February, a month before Brexit date. If the can-kicking went beyond November you could even see the UK in political crisis and in transition between governments on Brexit day itself. You’d like to think everyone would see this for the nightmare it is, but unfortunately both the Brexiteer Ultras and the Corbynistas might see it suiting their game plan quite well.


#4337

The whole thing is enthralling. It’s rare to have such a major geopolitical event approaching via a countdown.

Even if May still had the Cameron majority and had sorted the Irish sea border, she be facing Scotland demanding the same exemption.

Even if the UK stays aligned with the SM after next march I can see their exports been heavily checked for compliance and they won’t be able to do a thing about it without a seat at the table.


#4338

Corrected quote - it was D4000.

You’re right on the withdrawal treaty, but any future trade treaty can be vetoed. fullfact.org/europe/eu-veto-brexit-deal/
This has been threatened with the Canada deal and TTIP was killed off pretty sharpish.


#4339

EU member countries are insisting on seeing the proposed text of any withdrawal treaty before May takes it back to the UK parliament. Apart from adding scarce days to the whole timeline, I reckon it’s a sign that the EU members are losing faith in the Brits’ sincerity in the negotiations. Hardly surprising – every time the Brits consider signing up to something they seem to have a side discussion with themselves about how they can weasel out of it later.

theguardian.com/politics/20 … rexit-deal


#4340

Thanks ps200306, I didn’t know that. There’s a good explainer about Parliament’s ‘neutral terms’ vote on a no-deal here:

instituteforgovernment.org. … ote-brexit

It concludes (similar to you),

"The procedural niceties of ‘no deal’ only matter if the Government survives them. The Government claims that Parliament cannot force ministers to adopt a particular stance in the negotiations. In particular, the Government has argued that ministers could take the UK out of the EU without a deal, even if that was not the will of Parliament. In reality, however, the politics of a ‘no deal’ scenario, or a scenario in which the Government could not get its deal through Parliament, would be extremely fraught.

The Government would probably come under political pressure to resign, to subject itself to a vote of no confidence in the Commons, or to move a motion for an early general election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. What happened next would depend not on the precise terms of the EU Withdrawal Act, but on the UK’s Brexit policy, as it then stood, and on how the EU27 responded to it."

If - and that’s a big if - the above happened, then a People’s Vote scenario has to be the eventual outcome.


#4341

Just to lighten things up a bit.


#4342

I don’t see this at all. Theresa May is adamant that there must not be a second referendum. The Leave Campaign is equally adamant. Even most Tory Remainers agree. Corbyn and his followers want a general election, not another referendum. Most people accept that a rerun of the referendum would be a disaster for British democracy, not to mention that both political parties would suffer the ire of their Leave voters. There is simply no way a Tory government will sanction a referendum. In any case it would probably be too late. Britain is out of the EU on March 29th, at which point there is no Remain option, only an application to rejoin.

British law prevents a referendum happening in any less than six weeks – 14 days for the referendum to be approved by the referendum commission, and a statutory minimum of 28 days before the vote can be held. But [ is much more likely*months * (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/not-enough-time-to-hold-referendum-on-final-deal-before-brexit) than six weeks. A general election followed by a referendum would take us well into next year, at which stage EU membership would be receding in the rearview mirror. Not to mention that whatever government is in place will be devoting all its energies to crisis management in the wake of Brexit. Another referendum is probably less likely than martial law! :open_mouth:

I don’t think a “People’s Vote” in any shape or form is a realistic option. With the latest EU rejection of May’s backstop fudge, a crash out “No Deal” is by far the most likely option. There are two substantial groups in parliament that this would suit. The Raving Tory Loonie Leavers will take a Brexit by whatever means necessary. And Corbyn will be rubbing his hands in glee at the shit hitting the Tory fan, so that he can step in to pick up the pieces without having to piss off either his Leave or Remain constituents.


#4343

CEO of Thyssen-Krupp UK speaks up:
theguardian.com/politics/20 … krupp-says


#4344

He’s right - about all of it, including the fact that people in his position are going to be fine while younger and poorer people suffer. Boris and Rees-Mogg will also be graaaaand.

If you want some grim mid-morning reading, try Chis Grey’s latest on the stubborn ignorance of leading thinkers in the Brexit movement. They were ignorant from the start but it’s the refusal to engage with the detail and messy reality of executing Brexit - even at this very late stage - that is really stunning.

Anyone, including civil servants and ‘experts’, who points out the complexities and risks involved in various Brexit futures is a fear-mongering Remoaner.

Given this ignorance - and the understandable ignorance of the electorate who follow the lead of David Davis and co. - a second referendum might not give a different result. Or it might give a different result but not by much. There could easily still be 40% who vote Leave.

I think they need to crash out with no deal and live the reality for a few months, then hold a referendum. In the meantime, maybe a Christmas-time crisis leading to an election could trigger an extension of Art. 50 so that the option of not leaving is still there for another year or so. UK MEPs are already trying to soften up other MEPs to give them an extension. At least that would avoid having a vote about rejoining the EU. If they leave and rejoin, they are unlikely to get the terms they have today (the rebate etc.).


#4345

Senior Ministers Are Telling Theresa May To Go For A No-Deal Brexit If The EU Won’t Make Concessions

I can see why the backstop is unpalatable but what they are proposing - unilateral control over when it ends - is not a backstop at all. It’s also not what they signed up to in December.

The hard brexiteers are saying in one breath that the backstop won’t be necessary because when the future relationship is hammered out we’ll be so closely aligned as to make it irrelevant, but in the next breath they want to ‘break free’ from EU regulations and strike bold new trade deals (i.e. they don’t want/expect to be closely aligned - helpfully reminding the EU why a backstop will actually be essential.

Meanwhile, they have another problem. Even the UK-wide backstop - which most UK MPs don’t seem to love - is only going to work for EU leaders if they are sure the UK will be following all the customs union and single market rules. They can’t let them trade in the single market if they are not bound by labour, environmental and other pesky EU regulations, as the UK would then have a competitive advantage over other members of the single market.

The gas thing about it all is that whatever ‘deal’ is done or not done this year is not the end - not by a long shot. I don’t think this is well understood in the media. This is just the deal on the Withdrawal Agreement. The future trading relationship is the next big bit and that is going to be another impact with reality for cake-and-eat-it Brexiteers.


#4346


#4347

I think the EU27 are meeting next week to prepare for a no deal scenario. Even if a transition deal is reached I can see the flow of UK goods being subject to regulatory checks in lieu of the great global Britain that the Brexiters promised is awaiting them.


#4348

Breaking: negotiators have agreed a deal. Now the real fun begins - UK cabinet members to get text this evening, followed by cabinet in the morning to explain what it all means, and then probably a subsequent cabinet meeting 24 hours later where they can sign off/kill one another/quit/mutiny.

It’s the beginning of the end of the beginning.


#4349

Rumours flying on both sides of the channel right now. Brussels “sources” suggesting the text of a technical withdrawal agreement has been finalised. In the UK it is rumoured that May is calling her cabinet members in one by one tonight, in advance of a meeting tomorrow to get collective cabinet agreement. Raab would then fly to Brussels to bring back the official agreement for consideration in London while EU leaders consider an emergency summit. No details as yet on what is being proposed for the backstop. In separate news the Labour motion to force the government to publish the attorney general’s legal advice on the backstop will go through unopposed, as the DUP indicated they wouldn’t support the government on it. EU27 ministers in Brussels tomorrow, ostensibly for “no deal” planning, but the rumour is they may be discussing something else.


#4350

Glad we’re finally getting to crunch time. Feels like every week for the past few months have been the ‘moment of truth’, only for truth to retire back to its box for another few days.

So…predictions?

  • Who will quit? (Raab? Fox? Leadsom? The Attorney General? All of the so-called Pizza Club?)

  • Will the DUP wear it?

  • If it’s obvious by the weekend that this won’t get through parliament, is it curtains for Mrs May?

Then what/who?


#4351

Cabinet meeting confirmed for tomorrow.


#4352

Sterling vs. Euro has shot to a seven month high.


#4353

Where are they getting the part about having 5 or 14 days to respond?