The last bit doesn’t follow at all. Parliament doesn’t get to vote down a “No Deal”. Remember all the political shenanigans over the “meaningful vote”? This became Section 13, Sub-section 11, of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. The government can announce at any time that there is no prospect of concluding a deal with the EU or, if there is no agreement in principle by 21 Jan 2019, it must make such an announcement. Then within five days the government must propose how it intends to proceed. At that point, the Commons will consider the proposal and there will be a motion “in neutral terms”. That means the Commons can neither veto nor amend the proposal. The Lords will then go through a similar process.
Now, it may be that the government is under immense political pressure at that point, and it can choose to take the Commons’ views into account. But as it stands today, parliament cannot reject a “No Deal”. I don’t think it will have to wait until 21-Jan either. If there is no breaking of the deadlock in November (i.e. the next two weeks) there is no chance of an emergency EU summit in December, and it would seem sensible to acknowledge that “no deal” is upon us.
Theresa May has also reiterated today after JoJo’s resignation that there is no possibility of a second referendum. So clearly her head would have to roll before such a thing could happen. So it’s hard to see what the government proposal could be except to go ahead with no deal and crash out of the EU. Now, I would expect all hell to break loose at that point and anything could happen. But seeing as Corbyn favours a GE, even if the government was toppled you would be facing into a minimum six weeks of an election campaign.
So consider the timing. The “no deal” announcement process will take three weeks – five sitting days each for the government to come up with its proposals, and five each for the Commons and Lords debates. Even if this was all put in train at the end of November, you’d be looking at an election in mid-February, a month before Brexit date. If the can-kicking went beyond November you could even see the UK in political crisis and in transition between governments on Brexit day itself. You’d like to think everyone would see this for the nightmare it is, but unfortunately both the Brexiteer Ultras and the Corbynistas might see it suiting their game plan quite well.