Britain leaving the European Union.


#4729

Extending or not extending, both will cause trouble.
But I doubt that either will bring people out on to the streets.


#4730

O would be inclined to think that the smoothest path Gould be to continue on using existing processes until they are superseded by new processes.
Thus ensure minimal disruption.
Politics may put a few spanners in this approach, EU needs Brexit to fail.


#4731

Arguably Brexit has already failed and it had nothing to do with the EU.

Despite the rhetoric no one seriously expects that the UK is going to have an economic “Brexit Dividend”. That’s not the EU’s fault, it was the PM that decided the UK’s red lines to exit from the single market etc. and that has inevitable economic costs.

As for setting up the UK as an independent free trading nation, the the UK government has balked at the prospect of going it alone and looks like it it intends to cleave to the EU and its regulatory level.

While in terms of reducing immigration, there are signs of immigration substitution from the EU to ROW but still at the same numbers. Though that’s still in flux so who knows.

Taken as a whole, we’re firmly in BINO territory where the UK has swapped a formal relationship with the EU member states, mediated through the treaties, for an informal relationship with very similar results, except the UK will not be at the decision table.

As for the EU’s approach to Brexit you may or may not like their 3 priorities of the UK’s financial commitments, EU citizen rights, and the border, and the tacit position that single market membership means total acceptance of single market rules and ECJ oversight, but the EU has conducted itself transparently throughout the negotiations. There were no unexpected demands from the EU and if the UK was caught on the hop with the backstop it’s hard to see how that can be laid at the EU’s door.

In the Withdrawal Agreement the EU made a huge concession in allowing the UK to have the extendable EU membership-lite to 2021 and another in the total UK customs union so long as it is necessary. Further in the talks Barnier’s team made clear to the UK that even out of the single market, the intention was to treat the UK’s products extremely favorably with exceptionally low levels of regulatory checks.

The UK can point to hardball over totemic issues like France pushing fishing rights or Spain on Gibraltar but the EU could have been significantly more awkward in negotiations.

The EU was never going to cheer lead Brexit however if you had said to Brexit campaigners in 2015 that the EU’s 3 demands were finances, citizens and the border and that the EU would publish those demands openly, I suspect they would have anticipated the UK would be in a really strong position.

That they’re not says more about Westminster than Brussels.


#4732

Id agree. Delay looks the main option. Saying no to a delay would be one of the potential triggers for a No Deal


#4733

Another cracker from Tony Connelly:
rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/011 … -connelly/

At this stage, we’re at:


#4734

My experience of working with Marketing people on big projects is that once it looks like a brief can be delivered upon, you can be sure it will change. You will always end up with some element of the the brief that cannot be delivered, be it a technical impossibility or just a schedule issue. The cynic in me has always though that this is intentional on the part of the Marketing people, if they got exactly what they wanted and the product was a flop, it’s all on them, however when they can point to something from the brief that could not be delivered, they can point to that and say… if only we could have had that? Methinks there’s a lot of this going on with BREXIT too, a large cohort of BREXITers who won’t state categorically what they do want are making sure to point to things and say that’s not what we wanted.


#4735

More on the precendence crisis:
bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46853689


#4736

Sunny Beach for the win!
theguardian.com/politics/20 … an-resorts

Guess Brent had it right after all :neutral_face:

The return of the paperwork of the pre-EU days also gets a mention:

As I’ve said elsewhere, travel between european countries pre-EU involved lots of awkwardness; driving and pets in particular, but one thing not mentioned here - currency. With the UK banks falling out of the single market for banking, will they all have an EPOS/ATM presence? If not, will we see travellers cheques come back? Queues for currency? Without membership of euro settlement, will currency need to be balanced? (Euros to British travellers need to be matched by sterling purchases by eurozone? Could we see a currency crisis?).


#4737

Travelling within the GBP zone is already a hassle when Northern Ireland and Scottish notes in England get knocked back!

Anyway things mightn’t be so bad, down at my local north England Tesco last night I saw a bottle of prosecco in the food donation bin.


#4738

I don’t see why not. I had no difficulty using British and Irish cards in ATMs in the USA.
Daily limits might have been lower, but otherwise they worked fine.


#4739

Is this the real backstop?


#4740

Hmmm, I wonder if my memories pre-date ATM cards!


#4741

Leave Tory opinion on supporting May’s deal:
theguardian.com/commentisfr … cy-commons


#4742

When UK leaves the EU how much space will be freed up?

1GB!

:laughing:

:-GC


#4743

Boom Boom!
(Are we still allowed Basil Brush? He wasn’t found in a foxy threesome with an underage lamb?).

Anyway, no deal = hard deal, at least that’s the pressure some in EU are putting on:
rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/011 … al-brexit/


#4744

According to Bloomberg Transferwise has restricted transactions to £10.000 for the next day or so.

Probably a lot of currency speculation going on around the vote. What’s it going to be like approaching a hard exit?


#4745

I think the issue will be charges - at the moment if my memory serves me correctly there is a limit on the fee that banks can charge for ATM withdrawals within the Eurozone but there was also an accommodation for the UK on the basis that they were in the EU but not the Eurozone - that means that you didn’t get charged very much for withdrawing STG with an EUR card - it wasn’t as cheap as an EUR/EUR withdrawal in other EUR countries but there was a limit - I reckon this will be gone now.


#4746

When is she going to inform us about her resignation?


#4747

230 down

bbc.com/news/live/46874049
Truly, the end days are here. :open_mouth:

If I were a gambling man, I might go out on a limb and lay a small wager that this is the end of the beginning of discussion of the endless circular procrastination about whether the British establishment can decide what Brexit is, might be, might not be, or possibly even isn’t.

But then, I’m not a gambling man. :frowning: :unamused: :wink:


#4748

It’s justifiable to say that Westminster democracy is broken, no consensus to move forward and most likely there won’t be enough support to take out the Tory government in tomorrow’s vote.

My eyes are on Scotland’s reaction.