Britain leaving the European Union.


#5141

theguardian.com/commentisfr … orge-soros

George Soros is not the first person of late to draw a comparison between the current state of the EU and the final days of the Soviet Union. Across Europe there is genuine fear that the European Union may be on its last legs. At the very least it is one of the possible future scenarios. And a large reason that such a scenario is being viewed as having potential is down to the quite obvious retreat of what may be described as the liberal world view across the continent ie the ideology to which the continents powerhouses have been anchored for nigh on 50 years is in the process of being rejected by significant sections of the population such that the centre ground is moving to the right. As per the above article even George Soros is of the view that this is not a temporary phenomenon but is rather a shifting of the plates that is likely to remain in place over the coming decades.

In Ireland however, there appears to be no evidence that the establishment is even aware that any of this is even a possibility. Perhaps this may be chalked down to the fact that the Irish establishment has only over the past 5 years or so, succeeded in embedding the type of social democratic liberalism, that has reigned elsewhere in Europe for a generation, into the heart of the Irish body politic. In essence, what is now perceived as old, outdated and flawed across much of the rest of Europe is still viewed in Ireland as a kind of new bright and shiny departure from what’s perceived as having been a somewhat puritanical past.

In light of this, question marks must surely be raised as to whether the type of mono-conceptual group-think that has informed the Brexit debate on this island is really in Irelands long term interest. In this regard the only approach considered has been one of intransigent compliance with the EU line as it pertains to the backstop issue. While it is obviously in Irelands interest to avoid a hard border on the island at all Costs, one would hope that this approach is borne of the furtherance of Irish self interest alone and that a few plan B options are lurking in the background. In other words, if a hard border was to come about because of slavish adherence on the part of the Irish political establishment to a line in Defence of a world view and a European political establishment (and even European political institutions) that may not be around much longer (at least in their current form), especially given the numerous likely attendant long term implications for our relationship with our nearest neigbour, that would not only be a disaster in base economic terms but it could go down as one of the worst mistakes in modern Irish history. That nobody in Irish public life appears to be even factoring in alternative outcomes is a worry…you’ll note Soros doesn’t mention Ireland even once in the course of that article ie we are a tadpole proxy within a Brexit debate that is itself a proxy for bigger, broader issues that are playing themselves out across the continent and beyond.


#5142

…or we could give up and ask to rejoin the UK now- they sure care about Irish interests as can be seen by this withdrawal process- and as can also be seen by the treatment of Scotland and NI (ignored) and the economic situation in the UK regions (the worst in Europe).


#5143

Its worth repeating that, assuming the referendum result is honoured, three options present with regard to the issue of the Irish border as follows -

  1. hard border on the island.
  2. some form of border at the Irish Sea
  3. ireland steps out of the customs union (in some form) with Britain

3 is a non runner. Numbers 1 and 2 are possibilities with 2 being the clearly preferred option from an Irish perspective. How to get to 2 should be the intent undwrpinning all Irish government policy. Currently it’s not clear that this, as opposed to promoting the interests/Defence of a clearly weakened political ideology and world view, is what currently informs the actual intent behind Irish government policy around the matter.


#5144

Never assume that option 3 is a non-runner while it remains an option it’s still in the running, that A50 bus is warming up!


#5145

One could be cynical and ask if Soros is shorting the Euro now.


#5146

I would say the Irish Government are sick of hearing these EU demise stories from British diplomats/politicians desperate to get us on board the Brexit train.


#5147

nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opin … mpire.html

There is more.


#5148

Ah the buck passing demonisation (and ad hominem) begins (NYT = Propaganda asset) An opinion piece constructed out of the same old tired characterisations rolled out ad nauseum at this point with no recognition of the will and consent of the people of getting down and dealing with a people lead reality. A marked difference. The British “elite” here are being scolded for letting the people loose in the matrix and given a last chance to sort this mess out.

The concluding paragraph reads:

Sinister warning.


#5149

m.independent.ie/opinion/editor … 18812.html


#5150

Beautiful non sequitur from the Indo as usual. No idea what the first part has to do with the second.
The backstop etc is to avoid a hard border
No deal - hard border. I dont mean to be blunt but is there something in this that doesnt compute. Its not rocket science, its not even difficult to understand.
The indo says its real that stark. Id say its really that bleedin obvious
Typical drivel by the legacy media


#5151

Depends on what Irelands primary intent is in all of this ie Is it to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, or is it to defend the fortunes of the EU and the political elite who run it?

Since Brexit was decided upon these two aspirational ideals have intersected somewhat thereby eliminating the need for any real decisions to be taken on the part of the Irish Givernment and Diplomatic service. What happens if it becomes apparent that these two outcomes are no longer fully compatible with one another (as is quite possible over the coming weeks) ? What then from Varadkar and co?


#5152

rte.ie/news/analysis-and-co … t-jackpot/

A less kind view is that the DUP have nailed their colours to another sinking ship.


#5153

Play the long game. After a no-deal Brexit, yes we may have to erect a border. But the UK will still be looking to sign an FTA with the EU. What do you think our precondition would be?


#5154

Fair point…assuming our interests get an airing during any such negotiations


#5155

Well we know the German’s and Polish government would sell us out. But I was just thinking yesterday how bloody lucky we are that all that all French people are united by one thing - they hate little Englanders.


#5156

@GameBlame
What’s the opposite of “little Englander”, “Big Europer”?


#5157

You are making an assumption that the French will put themselves out to “look after Ireland” when technically it’s far easier for them to simply draw the line along the entire English channel and make that the customs union border, it is already the Schengen border.


#5158

I think Sammy Wilson has coined the term “Devilish Euromaniac”

But in all seriousness, Little Englander has no opposite. It’s like Communist. The opposite is anyone who isn’t a communist. A good litmus test is the Empire. Little Englanders always think the Empire was a “good thing, basically”. Anything bad was just regrettable.


#5159

@GameBlame
Communist, the opposite might be individualist.

The EU could be considered by its critics as another form of empire. Just not their empire.

[recap…

[quote]
Communism: a theory or system of social organization in which** all property is owned by the community** and each person contributes and receives according to their ability and needs.
imho, generally our current system is a bit of a mixed mode setup. Some property is community owned. Big earners pay big tax. The market decides prices and who gets what. (But not in all cases).
Since the word property comes from the Latin, privus: “one’s own, individual”, the whole communist concept of property seems to be contradictory to the original meaning for the word. (Anyway, that’s an aside, and probably best left for another thread.)
]


#5160

In the brave new Brexit world, Britain will throw off its shackles and retake its place among the economic and military great powers. That’s the theory. In practice, you probably shouldn’t act aggressively toward someone you’re trying to cosy up to for a sweet trade deal. Especially when they’re much bigger than you.

theguardian.com/politics/20 … ip-hammond