Britain leaving the European Union.


#5372

On the extension, some thoughts from around Europe:
bbc.com/news/world-europe-47557216
Including a hard enough line from Italy…

For those EU governments looking to aid national businesses, a No Deal Brexit is a godsend :wink:


#5373

Don’t get me wrong. I think Mogg is a lying sack of shit. But on that one point, that yesterday’s vote is largely meaningless, I can’t see why he is wrong.

I can not find any legal options to get out of the mess that the UK government has got itself into. The Government is bound by laws. There are things it can do and things it can not do. May can not simply declare that A50 is being delayed or repealed, a simple vote in the house isn’t enough because it has been written into UK law by the European Withdrawal Act.

Any way out of this requires primary legislation to be passed to open doors. In principle A50 can be extended easily enough. It requires Primary Legislation to be passed by the Houses in the UK Parliament though. This needs to be done in the next two weeks.

I can foresee a scenario that there could be a bit of a fudge to extend things by a few days. This scenario would only be plausible if the Government writes a bill to extend A50 and is unanimously supported by Cabinet to delay A50. Maybe then a grace period of days could be granted on the Primary Legislation thing. I can thought see many ways in which Mogg and his mates could frustrate this fudge.

What am I missing?

Months ago I put a bet on paddypower that there would be no extension. I’m feeling more and more confident that I’ll get that €50.

I just can’t see any way out of this that isn’t blocked by obstacles that take months to move. Months which are not available.


#5374

Leaving aside the economic aspect for a moment, in pure political terms which of those three options is most in the institutional EU’s interest at this point?

Option a)

(i) A March 29th crash out followed by post-Brexit economic crisis and potential political unrest in Ireland could be spun in a very positive manner with a view to safeguarding the EU’s longer-term future.

or

(ii) A March 29th crash out followed by negligible levels of negative fallout could damage the EU irreparably.

Option b)

As of now, extending for no good reason simply postpones one of the above (see (a)). It would also, presumably, ensure UK participation in the EU elections due to be held in June…which would inevitably become a de facto referendum on EU membership. Characters such as Farage and Tommy Robinson would no doubt be to the fore in any such campaign. This would be a gamble that could backfire and add to the number of anti-EU nationalists/populists sitting in the EU Parliament.

Option c)

Repeal A50 and stay in the EU. Are the chances of civil unrest more, less or the same as the crash-out options? Is there potential for a Treaty of Versaille effect (for want of a better term) and corresponding rise in extreme English nationalism should the referendum result be overturned? Perhaps Catbear or someone else in the UK could answer that. But Ive already today seen some Brexiteer MP invoking the judgment of God and his terminally ill uncle on the broader political class who, in his view, are refusing to act in accordance with democratic principles and adhere to the result of the Referendum on the basis of their hatred and disdain for those who voted the ‘wrong’ way on Brexit etc.

In political terms, perhaps its now more in the interest of the intitutional EU to cut the UK loose and hope that they simply cant swim.

The economic arguments will obviously differ but as of now it would appear to be a political problem that requires a political solution.


#5375

I presume this is why the vote on extending A50 is taking place tonight, before any discussion of what the extension would be used for. That discussion can take place while the legislation trundles through the rest of the process. Don’t forget there’s another step beyond passing the UK legislation – the EU has to accept it with unanimity of the other 27 member states. So the UK bit needs to happen in one week, not two. I’ve no doubt that can be made to happen if needs be. The much harder bit is coming up with reasons why the EU should take it seriously. We can guess in advance it’ll be a total fudge but it has to be something. Are MPs capable of doing that, especially with the DUP and Mogglodytes trying to frustrate it?


#5376

Good post.

Ireland’s best interests do not align with the EU on some of those options. We don’t want the UK as a key market and ally to see unrest or suffer economically, we don’t want to see the rise of English nationalism and we don’t want to see Ireland get blamed in the UK for blocking their unshackled exit from the EU.

There is also another possibility - May will rerun her WA vote next Wednesday for the third time, it might actually pass depending on what the DUP and other key Brexiteers will strategically do in the light of their remaining options, and the British government will use the short extension being requested to pass the necessary legislation.

All in all there is likely to be another fudge and a long extension where May steps down and a new Conservative leader is found somewhere who can drive a consensus with Labour on a soft Brexit. Or a UK general election is called during the extension although this may not produce a clear result and way forward either. The time required to pass the necessary legislation in all scenarios to avoid a no deal exit is still worrying though. No deal blocking motions passed in the HOC are interesting but not law.


#5377

From what I’ve heard on local radio in North England today both Tories and Labour will want to avoid an election if Brexit is postponed. Both Tories and Labour would be fighting a rearguard action against Ukip and all the other malcontents so maybe a few Labour MPs might cave to support Mays withdrawal.


#5378

So Labour vote against a second referendum having previous said they’d vote a people’s vote. Is this as naked party politics as it seems or am I missing something?


#5379

The short answer is yes, but there is an Election coming soon and Labour have to make sure they’re not outflanked by right-wing brexiteers.
Whatever your feelings about Brexit a right-wing JRM type neo-liberal/Tatcherite lead Brexit Britain would be a disaster for the British working class, the Labour movement and the progressive things it has done for Britain. If I was Corbyn this would be my nightmare and the thing that must be fought.
A Labour lead Brexit Britain would be outside the Neo-liberal EU and you’d no longer have to comply with the rules about state aid and not nationalising infrastructure, which is why it’s attractive to Corbyn.


#5380

I’m trying to follow this as much as possible but it’s just getting harder. Last night the Brexit Secretary (Barclay) closed a debate on the motion to request an extension by calling on the house to back the government’s motion. Then, minutes later, he voted against it. Against the government. Against the motion on extending Brexit. His motion.

WTF?

Meanwhile, former Brexit Secretary David Davis voted with the government - despite having previously walked out because he wanted a hard(er) Brexit than the Prime Minister.

And a motion for a second referendum was rejected by people who want a second referendum. The People’s Vote campaign said yesterday wasn’t the time to push this - but it might be next week. :open_mouth:

Back in the real world, I just invoiced someone in the UK - which is rare for me. Reverse VAT applies under EU directive something something. I asked them what would happen post-Brexit from a VAT perspective. They don’t know but they think they are leaving in two weeks. Even though, if they had been paying attention to the new, they’d know they almost definitely are not.


#5381

Surely the rise of the right-wing such as UKIP would help Labour as it would more naturally eat into the Tory vote?


#5382

Talking to some people on the ground in the UK not many seem impressed with Labour on Brexit, or Labour under Corbyn in general so there could be a leakage of votes to a new Brexit party from that source also. Plenty of anger about with their politicians in general.


#5383

May is negotiations with the DUP to allow them support MV3 and move the ERG with them. Third time might just be the charm.


#5384

Mogg out saying he will vote for the, ‘terrible deal’ etc if DUPes vote for the deal.

Muppets one and all
Dodds spouting about backstop changes. Beyond stupid


#5385

#5386

Aaaaand, in the short time the 'pin has been moved, we’re on for a delay, we’re going to vote on MV3, oh wait, no we’re not, there’s a new set of meetings, no there isn’t. It’s some weird mashup of farce and pantomime - whoops, there go my bloomers, oh no they don’t.


#5387

I’ve had to replenish the stocks of popcorn.:popcorn:


#5388

It’s a blockbuster omnishambles. Rotten tomatoes are refusing to rate it though


#5389

Squeaky bum time.


#5390

And part of the reason for the loss of patience:

“There are people who regard it as great television,” said Bobby McDonagh, a former ambassador to London. “But it isn’t funny.” But politicians and officials in Dublin still cannot help rolling their eyes at the present state of the mother of parliaments.

“A shit-show that just goes on and on,” said one official. “Makes you wonder how they ever ran an empire,” said another. “British politics is quite broken at the minute,” said Lisa Chambers, the Brexit spokesperson for Fianna Fáil, the main opposition party, more diplomatically. “People have been surprised just how chaotic it’s been.”


#5391

This isnt silly at all.
Its a pantomime, choreographed with Brussels.

Brave Mrs May (a convert to the Brexit cause, mind) declares Brexit, full Brexit and nothing but the Brexit!
Off she plunges, flag in hand, horse between her thighs, sword aflame, breasts a-flopping…
Boudica! Says the English
Grainne Mhaol! Says the Oirish
Joan of Arc! dit le français
The Fallen Madonna with ze big boobies! sez Der Chermans
Not him agaiN! says Yogi aNd the moderators!

All votes fail.
Long delay offered - for which May falls on her sword, as though she gives a shit.
The condition is that the UK holds a GE (Labours price for supporting the delay), participates in Euro elections and May resigns to pacify the ERG.
GE - Labour promises to renegotiate and offer referendum on outcome.
Labour win.
New - not 2nd - referendum on Labour Lite-Brexit deal offering 2 choices 1.Lite or 2.No Deal.
Lite wins and Labour delivers on Deal Delivery and Second Referendum and wins both.

All the rest is play-acting.