Incredible scenes last night (watching on TV) of Remainers/Peoples Vote crowds cheering like their football team had scored. They feel like they are on to a win. Then ERG-types - and other Tories - one by one celebrating defeating their own Prime Minister because it makes a ‘clean break’ more likely. They can smell victory.
It’s a good point about the scale of the defeat being kind of good for Ireland in that if it were just the ERG and DUP factions everyone would be looking at Ireland to make the backstop time-limited. Still totally unclear what happens next. (Here’s are four opinions from the Guardian side of the spectrum).
An extension of Art. 50 seems odds on now but all the Brussels correspondents (RTE, BBC, Guardian, Telegraph) are saying EU Member States are completely sick of the whole saga and would only allow a short extension if there was a clear plan. They souring of relations has people in Europe dreading the prospect of the UK somehow reversing its decision by referendum and deciding to stay after all. Imagine having to deal with them after this on normal EU business.
I hope they have a cross-party think-in and opt for Norway-for-now which becomes some kind of EFTA-forever. Or, if not actual EFTA membership (because they don’t want them either), a very similar looking set of agreements that effectively means regulatory alignment. Worse than EU membership - but that was obvious from the get-go.