Britain leaving the European Union.


#5223

Would our imports not be impacted by lack of preparation at Dover rather than Calais. It would be our exports to the EU that could be affected by lack of preparations in Calais. Or am I missing something?


#5224

+1. As a lurker and rare poster, there is some bat shit crazy stuff on this site in the last few years. It makes the site a lot poorer imho.


#5225

I wonder what the “Economists for Brexit” group, led by Professor Patrick Minford of Cardiff Business School thinks about the whole thing?

forbes.com/sites/carltonrei … 576a485c4b

twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/statu … 3400243201


#5226

You could be right. I was probaby holding a mental image in my mind about long queues at Calais (or Dover or Rotterdam or Zebrugge or wherever) and possible delays to ferries affecting trade in both directions but you are right the hit is probably going to be more in one direction. Hopefully we are not going to get to test this scenario soon though.


#5227

+2. When you have a site owner lashing out at an established member for “poor quality shit posting”, especially when that poster is someone whose contributions I’ve generally found to be informative and well thought out, you know the site is on a slippery slope. And yet the same site owner is content to post pithy meaningless responses when the logic of his own assertions is questioned but somehow that doesn’t count as “poor quality shit posting”…


#5228

+3


#5229

@fitzy73 @JohnnyTheFox @blanchguy
This is the Brexit thread. By slagging off the site on this thread you are proving the point about the shit posting. There may be a thread already for those who want to discuss the falling quality of forum discussion.


#5230

Will the formation of the SDP for slow learners have any impact on Brexit? Would there be enough in it to replace DUP support for May? I’m not completely sure why they’re splitting from their parties right now, pre-Brexit I would’ve assumed they had a plan but not so much now.


#5231

I just don’t see how scrapping a whole pile of trade deals and then renegotiating them is a particularly productive use of time. If our Canadian experience is anything to go by, the process will be exasperating as well. Politicians and bureaucrats have more pressing challenges to address.


#5232

I appreciate that OW Yoda-like statements can grate. But The point is though that there is, and has been, an information war going on for the last 46 years about the European project itself and Britain’s relationship with it.The EU has a propaganda budget in Ireland and paid shills. There is so much media management on all sides that anyone who actually takes stated reasons at face value is a fool. That is not to say that right and wrong cannot be discerned. But they can really only be discerned at a remove of about 2 - 5 years. Even then you have to be careful not to fall for the “accepted narrative”.

It is only now that the assertions made and actions taken in the run up and immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote can be dispassionately looked at.

  • the economic predictions
  • the assertions about what Brexit would be like
  • Farage’s disappearing act

#5233

There nothing yoda like about saying a poster is shit posting. It’s just very poor form especially when slashes posts are fair and balanced from what I can see.

In relation to the look back, brexit hasn’t happened yet and can be dismiss by the Parliament. 3 years later there isnt any clear vision from anyone bar the laissez faire tory economics which always throws workers, the regions(NI etc) and environment standards under the bus.


#5234

That’s the thing - there has been no progress on even a plan for a deal from the leading brexiters, their backers, their ‘thinking’ wing. It’s almost as if they want chaos and stand to gain from it.

I’m not sure how imputing motives/stooge status on anyone who questions the failure of brexiters to produce is either conducive to discussion or indicative of a desire to engage.


#5235

There is a well thought out plan for Brexit.

What else do you need?

What I find either interesting or depressing is that the ‘debate’ has not changed in anyway over the last number of years. The same stupid sound bites and lies is all that is being repeated Ad nauseam.

That so many aspects of day to day life go into a legal quagmire and no one knows what will happen is dismissed out of hand by most people. A plain text reading of the law in regards to so many things means there may be large scale disruption is dismissed with, ‘they wouldn’t allow it’. Who exactly ‘they’ are is never explained.


#5236

+1 to the above.

While I think Slasher is generally an excellent poster, Im still struggling to see how the Honda story is directly related to Brexit given the fact that Honda are not relocating their factory to an alternative EU location.

Further, the ‘narrative’ is very much in the eye of the beholder so to speak. The following Guardian piece from January could be interpreted in a number of ways, to include the possibility that Brexit is delivering on some level for low paid workers in the UK ie positive blue-collar wage growth on the back of a marked decrease in inward migration from the EU.

theguardian.com/business/20 … y-earnings

Somebody else may be in a position to highlight when last it was that blue-collar wage growth outstripped inflation… but my understanding is that its quite some time that this was the case. And if that is in fact the case, could it be said that Brexit is in fact delivering for the blue-collar Brexit voters in opposition to the interests of white-collar remainers? Probably way too early to say…but possibly as relevant as the Honda plant closure.

Indeed, is that dichotomty (which has formed a central part of the medie-led ‘educated remainer versus stupid Leave voter’ narrative) even relevant? I remember reading that some analysis of voting patterns did not necessarily fit that particular asect of the accepted mainstream Brexit narrative.

As alluded to above, the answers will most likely only become apparent in another 3-5 years.


#5237

With the new EU-Japan FTA there’s no reason to keep UK operations going when Honda has stated that it simply can’t absorb the probable 10% tariff after brexit.

Would they shutter the plant if the FTA had happened without Brexit? Well Nissan has shifted future production it had planned from Sunderland to Spain so it’s very likely that Brexit has been a factor, but once these industries that plan in decades makes such huge decisions they have zero reason to waste time or energy on a nation that’s tearing itself apart over bendy bananas.

Taking the UK seriously is somewhat futile now. Instead all effort is going into helping them construct a delusion they can live with to get past their current parliamentary impasse.


#5238

Japan is not a low-cost manufacturing site. If the UK were remaining in the EU don’t you think it’s at least possible they would be beefing up their site to make these electric cars of the future that are supplanting the Civic? Shouldn’t they be? With the UK outside the EU they certainly won’t be doing so. In fact, Dyson - owned by Brexit promoter James Dyson is building their electric car facility in Singapore.

theguardian.com/business/20 … r-defender
also

Brexit was sold as Global Britain escaping the sclerotic EU and selling their great products all over the world, where are the gains in manufacturing? The UK is a net exporter of services (and rather poor performer in goods especially when Japanese cars are taken out of the equation) but the red lines mean cutting themselves off from the single market in services to a significant degree

AutoExpress is a magazine for car enthusiasts, so a little less biased than the Torygraph etc…:
autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/ … ng-decline

They’ll still have the Mini I suppose…

reuters.com/article/britain … SL5N1GZ4GG

maybe they will change the taillights too?

sorry for all the numbers and data in this post I guess it makes it perilously close to shitpost territory


#5239

Honda in Swindon arrived at about the same time as the company I started working for (in Swindon). A manufacturing location inside the EU (the EEC as it was then) was part of the reasoning behind it.

While running down existing production may not be related to Brexit in Honda’s case, any company that sites itself anywhere in Europe to gain frictionless access to the EU market must surely be looking at future access. The mood music coming from the Tory party is that there’ll be no customs deal now, and future deals are unlikely to be frictionless.

There’s some good information here on wage growth in the UK in 2018:
ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab … nings/2018
Unfortunately the North East is still losing out (take 2.3 percentage points off the gross wage growth figures to get the net growth figure) (Figure 7).

Absolute pay levels are also low in both skilled trades and Process Plant and Machine (Figure 13).


#5240

Good post


#5241

That’s a shocking baseline investment figure. It really feels like production lines are been run down. I think I read back when PSA bought Opel/Vauxhall the plan for the British plants was basic van production for the UK as they needed far fewer parts than cars and most parts could be produced in the domestic market.

I won’t be surprised if in the long run you see models continue on longer in Britain after they finish elsewhere, like the Beetle did in Mexico and old Renault production lines continued under Dacia in Romania.

A decade from now there’ll just be Nissan Qashqai and Juke remaining on British roads after disappearing everywhere else! Their parts will become the new currency!


#5242

Fair enough. Ive no reason to doubt any of what you’ve posted bar simply querying whether the decision may be solely attributed to Brexit.

In turn, you must appreciate that, as with everything, there are competing narratives around Brexit generally. The prevailing Irish version has been that Brexit is a project that was embarked upon by loons and louts who pine for the days of the Raj. That may ultimately prove to have been the case but the fact that the establishment figureheads and institutions that have been most vociferous in its espousal are more or less the same sources who led the cheerleading of the worst excesses of the Celtic Tiger (in the Irish case), or episodes such as WMD etc (in the case of the UK) has definitely played a part in the discrediting of anything resembling ‘expert’ opinion across the board. And why wouldn’t it? Even a child understands the principle underpinning the story of The Boy who cried Wolf.

When the same establishment mouthpieces insist on incorporating lunacy such as women having penises and men being able to get pregnant into people’s everyday reality (by way of extreme examples), whats then to stop the consumers of said information in casting the same information sources’ predictions of countdown to economic collapse in a similar light? Indeed, in the Irish context its interesting to note that many of those who toed a soft Unionist line throughout the Troubles and were complicit in what was more or less an ongoing campaign of demonisation of northern nationalists througout the conflict, have recently been actively ramping up the nationalist and anti-British rhetoric.

Personally, Ive no time for any of them.