Britain leaving the European Union.


#5243

A little different perspective from my day to day life. I work quite a bit in Lesser Developed Countries, large parts of Africa and Asia.

At present I’ve a computer server that’s not being used in one country that could be used in another part of the company in another country. No problem, call DHL and ship it, what’s the big deal?
Get someone to box it up, call DHL, they pick it up and it gets shipped to country B and it is then impounded by customs! Why? The customs paper work is not filled out properly by DHL or someone. Customs won’t release the server unless we pay $6k because someone didn’t tick the correct box saying it was used or second hand equipment. Also, we don’t have the encryption import export license properly approved. Three weeks later after paying $1k we get it extracted from customs and returned to sender. I now have a squabble with DHL over shipping fees and the $1k extraction fee.
Ok, let’s try this again. Fill out the paper work again properly and double and triple check it and get DHL to ship again. It’s meant to be en-route again, crossing my fingers that it gets there.

A couple of years ago I sent one of these servers from UK and it got lost in customs for 8 months. $30k of equipment. No one could find it. I stopped asking and started plan B when it suddenly turned up. I had assumed it ended up on E.Bay, looks like I was being too cynical.

I bought one of the servers locally a year ago and it took six weeks to get a license clearance from Cisco. I had the physical box, but it wouldn’t start. Apart from customs there are restrictions on the type of encryption that can be used in different parts of the world. The project was delayed for six weeks because where I was working was not on the pre-approved list of countries that the US government allows Cisco automatically sell their kit.

In Ireland, I call Dell and it is delivered next day.

Next April I don’t know if I’m going to be able to move equipment between an Irish office and a UK office smoothly. All of these agreements that allow stuff to move about smoothly are tied up in EU regulations - those nasty regulations that people complain about.

Dealing with countries outside of the EU is a massive pain. No one knows what is going to happen next April. This is what people are afraid of. Anyone that deals outside the EU know it is a massive pain and they are terrified of what might happen. And the only plan for how to deal with any of this is that: * someone somewhere will do something about it. They wouldn’t dare not to. *


#5244

Meanwhile behind the scenes the City of London have concluded an interim arrangement with the EU to make sure the money isn’t affected by Brexit.

There is going to be loads of these types of deals so that if B-day happens with a no deal then it won’t be the end of Europe. This is the Y2K-like prep that no one talks about that the Brexiteers will cling onto saying that project fear was a sham.

I can’t see the EU allowing that City extension lasting past two years. They’ll want to secure that kind of stuff on their own territory and eventually places like Singapore will insist on it being wound down as it’s outside their FTA with the EU.


#5245

OK. Do you have any thoughts on what’s causing the absolute collapse in investments so? You must do! (there’s nothing on which you don’t have a view)

Maybe it was all Lehman Brudders?

Wha’?

Many of the retorts around this reminds me of the denial around the Irish Property bubble.

The raison d’etre of this website was to counter the narrative from the VIs and Politicians that Ireland could be rich from selling property to each other. People here recognised that debt bubbles had to come to an end and productivity and real value creation/international trade mattered. Anyone who dared to suggest otherwise was told to take hike - preferably on a short pier.

instead of countering with data and logic it’s all yoda-esque non-sequiturs about narratives and propaganda.

Simple logical propositions like - “how can the UK get better global trade deals than it currently has?” are never addressed.

The greatest propaganda machine over the last half-century has been the Murdoch/Dacre/Torygraph/Express machine churning out falsehoods about the EU. It’s no accident that so many hacks are/were high up in the UK government (Nigella’s Dad, Gove, BoJo and his bro, Jo) - for them, a considered piece of analysis is an 800 word Op-Ed piece - guess what, leaving the EU needs a more detailed plan!

Go back many pages in this thread and one noted sage (Mossy) kept spinning the line “It’s not the UK who want a hard border it’s the EU” - well now the UK is proposing tariffs on beef - including Irish beef - how does that happen without a hard border?


#5246

Thanks for posting that article re a temporary patch for financial services in the case of a no deal Brexit. I was wondering what might happen in that area since financial services from the City of London is such a huge part of the UK 's economy and underpins such a massive amount of business in the EU and worldwide. Although the agreement that you linked to only covers the derivatives area and is only for one year. I hope that there are other agreements being put together in areas such as commercial lending and insurance. I am aware that many UK financial institutions have opened offices and shell companies in various locations in the EU so that they can continue to provide services via these arrangements, but I imagine that these could entail regulatory complications.


#5247

Slasher:

+1


#5248

Well this is the heart of it, isn’t it ? I always said before the vote that Britain would be 5% poorer and 10% happier. I may need to revise those numbers though :stuck_out_tongue:

In your world

  • the propaganda war has only 1 side
  • the same Irish establishment that sold us up the River is now batting on our behalf
  • nationhood, agency and independence have no value in themselves. They only have value to the extent that they deliver investment and growth

#5249

That sounds like a perfectly reasonable proposition to me. :smiley:


#5250

UK: “The hated EU bureaucracy made us do it!” :angry:


#5251

I know there are bigger hurdles than this, but …

Science and the EU: how Brexit will impact astronomy


#5252

The people who will lose out the most by nothing being done will force their representatives to work out a deal that protects their interests. As demonstrated by the City of London deal.
If you’re small fry, forget it, you’re screwed until all the vested interests are dealt with first.


#5253

In response to another poster providing evidence of Honda having recently also closed a plant in Turkey (europe.autonews.com/automakers/ … ing-market), you yourself responded as follows -

What does that mean if not that Brexit was likely not the sole reason for the plant moving to Japan?

Heres another article suggesting that the automobile industry in China is experiencing its worst year in 20. Could this also have impacted on the Swindon closure? Presumably. Does it mean that Brexit had no impact on the Swindon closure. Presumably not. Is it capable of being a combination of factors? Highly likely.

zerohedge.com/news/2019-01- … r-20-years

This place also became a haven for people with a Bearish outlook who created their own groupthink around a fervent belief that the market was some kind of self-correcting eco-system that operates to a set of rules similar to a form of natural law. When the greatest crash in history finally arrived they were all going to swoop in and buy period homes in Ranelagh for pennies in the pound. There was also going to be an unprecedented economic reckoning from which the existing Irish establishment would never recover. You’ll note that the bank bailout/NAMA/inter-generational PAYE debt burden were never factored into any of these predictions.

I dont think Brexit is a particularly good idea. As it stands currently, it appears to be little more than a shit show with numerous potential outcomes, most of which appear negative, not least for Ireland. However, it is the result of a democratic vote. Not only that (and at the risk of repeating myself) it is just one element in an ongoing incoherent scream against establishment figureheads (to include the EU) across the continent of Europe and beyond. Its basically an economic proxy for a clash of political worldviews. And what many of you guys appear incapable of grasping is that (regardless of what the Tory twits may have intimated) its not quantifiable in terms of trade deals or growth rates.

To quote GameBlame above

That kind of sums it up


#5254

Actually my point was you can look at one marque/factory and say there are many factors. When you look across a whole country’s auto sector and see that investment is now a fraction of what it was it should give one pause for thought.

Japanese people are very diplomatic. They aren’t going to come out and blame Brexit because in any event it would damage their sales among 52% of the population.

Turkey? In case you hadn’t noticed Turkey is now a badly run basket case

PDF
mofa.go.jp › files

google.com/url?sa=t&source= … 0919684426

Have a read of this


#5255

Period homes in Ranelagh? Was that your fantasy?

Some of us just wanted security of tenure, you know, a house is not a home.


#5256

Now that you mention it, there’s actually some eerie similarities between Brexit Loons in 2019 and some of the Pin posters around 2010

Sorry :-GC


#5257

I was talking to a colleague today about Brexit and he made the observation that in reality the UK cannot back down from its current position as it will be seen as a sign of weakness and that’s the last thing the UK needs going forward on its own in the world without the EU.

So with this in mind, the “no deal” scenario is the most likely B-Day outcome. Having said that, many interested parties have already put in place contingency plans to minimise damage to their industries/services already, so the Y2K comparison will play out for some. Unlike Y2K, the variable are many and complex as opposed to a clearly defined issue with a clearly defined solution.


#5258

Your friend is confusing “the UK” for “the Wingnuts”. Which is exactly what the Wingnuts want him to. The U.K. already agreed a draft deal to backstop NI and the DUP Wingnuts vetoed it, then they agreed a final deal with a broader backstop and all the Wingnuts vetoed it.

The Wingnuts seem to still think Ireland will back down. But Leo cares about his political future just as much as May does in the Tory party’s.


#5259

TM agreed a draft deal that was reject by parliament, it is UK -v- EU, not UK -v- IRL, the EU will decide the final outcome for Ireland.

Wingnuts or no wingnuts, Ireland has a small part in the EU/UK negotiations.

Remember the EU is currently 300 odd Million people, after B-Day it will be 230 Million(ish), Ireland is only 4 million, what do the other 226(ish) million’s representatives think of Ireland’s position?


#5260

Pedant alert: The EU estimated population in 2018 was 512 million.


#5261

OK, Remember the EU is currently 512 odd Million people, after B-Day it will be 442 Million(ish), Ireland is only 4 million, what do the other 438(ish) million’s representatives think of Ireland’s position?


#5262

Let’s be honest, that’s Wingnut logic. “The Irish are under pressure”. 3 more Honda type announcements in the next 10 days and it’s Game Over for the Wingnuts.

I don’t care. I want Leo and Simon to do what’s in Ireland’s interest, which their current strategy may or may not be doing.

Does Leo want to be AT the EU conferences in 2020 or not ? He needs to be in power to be at them. Why does nobody care about my feelings here ? If Leo actually succeeds I’m going to be sweating in a voting booth putting my number 1 beside Jane O’Carroll-O’Malley-McDaid, or whatever pearl wearing robot FG run in my constituency