Britain leaving the European Union.


#5343

Agreed.

However to paraphrase a 21st century Irish collossus, “we are where we are”.

There may come a time for playing hardball but up until that point, being needlessly antagonistic (as per some suggestions) is not in our best interest. For what its worth, the current approach appears to have worked pretty well thus far. My point is simply that there may come a time when a change of tack is required…again in our common interest, and that that same interest may not automatically align with that of Brussels.

Now you’re approaching the central, defining (and thus far unarticulated) question that is lurking in the background of this entire debate.

In other words, in today’s world what exactly is the point of Irish independence? In the past, it was quite clearly to give some form of expression to both cultural and religious traits that marked the majority of us different from our neighbouring island since around the time of the Protestant reformation. In a post-Gaelic, post-Catholic Ireland, those differences no longer appear to exist and (presumably), economics becomes the sole driving force behind any argument for or against all future political (and even social) endeavour. Therefore, if as you suggest, it will become costly to be European at some point in the near future, what exists to stop the emergence of a new strain of southern Unionism for example, especially if post-Brexit UK is not the calamity that has been predicted? I would seriously doubt that Una Mullally’s vision of a new Irish national identity loosely anchored around the type of progressive principles that are in retreat practically everywhere else (including the western European mainland) is viable in any real sense.

Yes we are entitled to apply for Consular assistance from any EU Embassy. However, given the fact that very few Irish people speak French or Spanish, not to mention Lithuanian or Hungarian, they generally head straight for the Brits. Thats just how it is.

Id say most of it yes. Which is to be expected surely?

Indeed


#5344

rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/031 … _measures/

It seems a little like stating the obvious, but many in England seem to be hard of listening, or determined to be seen to have won something (second prize in a beauty contest, perhaps?).


#5345

rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/031 … ch-brexit/


#5346

If thats what they want to believe I have no problem with that. Probably time to let them get on with whatever pantomine they need to get this over this line.


#5347

From what I have read of the changes to the WA the UK can only apply to exit the backstop if it can prove bad faith on behalf of the EU, this to be determined by the Court of Justice of the EU.

I would be amazed if enough of the ERG buy this form of words and get the WA over the line in the HOC. So what happens next will still be in the lap of the gods. It is a failure of strategy on both sides that it has still come to this risk-filled scenario. The strategy of the EU side to impose a phoney baloney backstop and harsh WA on a divided and weak UK political leadership may in the long term come back to bite the EU and Ireland on the ass, if it encourages a real rise in English nationalism by imposing this humiliating agreement to frustrate the UK leaving the EU.


#5348


#5349

Well that was short lived


#5350

Now what?
The vote goes down tonight. And tomorrow the Commons votes to take ‘no deal’ off the table.

Then?
There was talk that they hoped to close the gap tonight and lose by less than last time (which is a win, see?), then twist arms, warn Tories of no Brexit/extension and May offers to resign - or persuade a few more Labour votes to switch to ‘Aye’.

Is there any real chance that if she’s hammered tonight, May will just resign…in resignation. It seems so unlikely that she can get some new change to the deal that would satisfy the ERG/DUP/Cox without reopening the text (which is off the table, according to Juncker and Member States).

That would lead to an extension for an election but not necessarily a conclusive result. Labour/Corbyn are not very popular right now.


#5351

Did Varadkar have to come out this morning at 8.30am? On BBC Today radio, they cut from interviewing Gove to go straight to Dublin and then back to Gove to say ‘well, he says nothing has changed?’

Last night one of the reporters said the UK was anxious for Dublin ministers to keep their heads down. Not that we should take instruction from London etc. etc. but it makes me think that Varadkar’s calculation is to help foment May’s defeat (and maybe demise), leading to an extension followed by either an election or a new vote.

Does he reckon the risk of no-deal is gone and so hardball could deliver an even softer Brexit than the WA?


#5352

I think Varadker was covering his arse. I was on Twitter after the announcement came out and it was in meltdown saying we’d been thrown under the bus. He may’ve paniced and put out the statement to stop the bus throwing narrative getting too much motion.


#5353

The bus throwing is a UK narrative, as it’s effectively what England/Wales are doing to Scotland and Northern Ireland and expect the EU to do the same to us, “cause that’s how unions work, inni’t?”.


#5354

Seemed a bit premature - if he’d waited until Cox’s codpiece was revealed, it would have been clear that nothing substantive had changed. Maybe they presumed the UK AG had been lined up in advance to give it the green light (somehow) and allow ERG-types to vote for the deal.

Sounds like the UK’s latest wheeze - publishing its tariff plans for a no-deal Brexit - are terrifying from an Irish perspective. But also seem obviously in breach of WTO rules and an effective Smugglers’ Charter. They have had a very long time to figure this bit out but it seems like it will cause them serious problems unless they get very favourable treatment from the WTO.

I’ve got it! Simply leave the WTO 8DD
There were no WTO restrictions when Brittannia rules the waves - just revert to the default position of not being part of any awkward multi-lateral organisations. But trading freely with nation states, of course…


#5355

They actually seem to offer Irish producers the best of both worlds from my reading. No border between NI and Britain and NI and Ireland means Irish producers can flood the British market via NI.

Meanwhile NI and British agri producers will face our EU tariff border!


#5356

Only if the UK is planning to abandon traceability requirements for food. That or turn a willing blind eye to the circumvention of tariffs.


#5357

I just can’t see how this would be allowed under WTO ‘most favoured nation’ status - they’d have different tariffs at the UK-Irish border compared to the UK-French border. And it’s inconceivable that the EU (Ireland) could reciprocate by offering tariff-free access across the Ireland-N.I. border. It would allow the UK to import goods from outside the EU, move them to N.I. and then into Ireland and then to anywhere in the single market. C’est pas possible. The EU is a rules-based system.

More likely this is a blame apportionment gambit: ‘We were willing to waive tariffs across the Ireland border for a while until we sort everything out, but the EU insisted on tariffs and checks…and now there’s a border despite our best endeavours.’


#5358

One estimate I read had 90% of vets working in the UKs agri business are EU immigrants. UK vets do horses and pets.

The UK has always run a cheap import regime for the masses going back to the corn laws repeal so I can’t imagine that changing suddenly. Irish producers have brought up the matter of Tesco importing sandwiches from Britain with labeling that doesn’t clearly state where the meat comes from, and likewise the COOP store group have been criticised by Northern Ireland agri businesses for promoting British only produce over UK.

Their whole agri verification regime is highly dubious.

It’s in our interests to lay down a regulatory border like we did during the foot and mouth outbreak.


#5359

The tories will flood there country with South america beef and asian chicken. As pointed ut this would be much more of a threat than stuff going north.
If it destroys there own agri sector it doesnt matter once they can keep a lid on inflation in an unlikely no deal scenario.


#5360

Yip, the average punter in England doesn’t give a crap where his KFC chicken is sourced, as long it’s cheap and cheerful.


#5361

And still the chaos continues…

theguardian.com/politics/li … itics-live

Proposing motions, trying to withdraw them and voting against your own motions

Looks like a long extension and a general election in my opinion
Good riddance but probably someone worse to take Maybots place


#5362

Chlorinated chicken.
Because it’s finger lickin’ :sick: :sick: :sick: