Britain leaving the European Union.


#5596

However, if they’re not bluffing, then history will record that the path chosen by the current EU-led Fine Gael administration was the most disastrous since De Valera went to Economic War in the 1930s.


#5597

Ideological bullshit.

There is only one strategy that a party committed to peace on the island of Ireland, but also to the well-being of the people of the Republic, can follow and that is some class of backstop. The English are setting the direction on the exit,

Boris and his Tory boys are interested in consolidating power in their own backwater. The rhetoric will turn to the perfidious/stupid/crafty Irish soon enough - we will be vilified as either the principal opponents or as stooges; the blame game will fall back on the old racism. No irish, no europeans (in that order)…


#5598

However, if they’re not bluffing, then history will record that the path chosen by the current EU-led Fine Gael administration was the most disastrous since De Valera went to Economic War in the 1930s.

Firstly, didn’t you promise to stop posting?

Secondly, since even Shanker Singham, chair of the alternative arrangements committee, publicly admitted that the only way to fully avoid a hard border in NI is to have a backstop - there is literally no alternative to Ireland’s position where a hard border is avoided. We either accept that a hard border is once again erected - or we do not. Personally, I do not and will not accept that. And frankly I have significant issues with people do.
As for the “most disastrous”, aside from the fact that the impact of a no deal is slightly over 6 months GDP growth (and leaving aside the fact that there will be a similar impact from any form of Brexit), Ireland will do quite well out of Brexit - we will reduce reliance on the (dwindling and unreliable) UK market and be the English speaking common law gateway to the EU.
The only thing similar to the 1930’s economic war, is the effect of a no deal brexit on the UK. Bring the popcorn.

As for “EU leading Ireland”, clearly you are deliberately trolling or lying at this point - you were entirely unable to address the fact that the backstop (both the NI and UK-wide) are massive headaches for the EU- and any form of FTA between the EU and UK will by definition favour the EU (the UK is a services economy which would not be covered by an FTA and it has short/partial supply chains only- so will lose entire industry chains).


#5599

There is no need to be bringing the age old Irish victim complex into this, I thought we had moved beyond this. Avoid the distractions and keep your eye on the ball, this is senior hurling now.

The Johnson government is even more radical than I feared. They are also very cocksure of something, it seems they have some sort of a plan. Could the plan be:

  1. Assume that not enough Conservatives will want to bring the government down by a vote of no confidence or by revoking Article 50 before October 31st. Because an election has the risk of bringing in a Corbyn-led government which to most Tories seems to be a worse thing than a no deal exit?

  2. Once the no deal exit is accomplished is the UK going going to then announce that they will leave the Irish border as a free trade area (open border) only if the EU leaves the UK as a whole in a free trade area?

Both of these seem to be risky plays but this looks like an incredibly radical cabinet that Johnson has assembled, that could be liable to risk taking unlike May’s?.


#5600

Why should a change of trading arrangements on the border threaten violence? Surely only headbangers would resort to violence if good checks were introduced? Its incredible that so many people are falling for this Provo-inspired nonsense.


#5601

You have been on here parroting the official Irish and EU position even as it has all gone south. Just like the bust of 2008 you will find that the official or group think analysis is wrong (once again). Perhaps all you guys are stuck in the denial phase. Wake up and smell the coffee. The reality is that the WA/backstop are both as dead as a dodo, it was a good try to thwart them leaving in a meaningful way but it has failed. The UK is leaving the EU by no deal unless there is an intervention and the primary objective for Ireland should be damage limitation, not cheerleading a war of the trading blocks where we get significant collateral damage.

You are saying that no deal Brexit is no problem for Ireland, only a small percentage of GDP blah, blah, blah. I wish people should stop talking about our stupid GDP figures which include the IP of IT multinationals and the turnover of aircraft leasing companies and has little relevance to employment on the ground.

Instead focus on the employment in sectors and regions of the country. I bet that you are a “townie” with no understanding of the importance of the agricultural sector to employment in most of the country, both directly to farmers and indirectly to small local towns. There are large areas of the country where almost all the local employment is either directly related to farms or to the public and construction sectors. If we have a no deal exit with subsequent tariffs on commodities such as beef and cheese I hope that you are prepared for the protest marches you will see in Dublin as prices and salaries collapse for thousands of people and affect other linked sectors such as transport. If you are indeed involved in government I would advise you to start working on huge emergency supports for this sector because this scenario will unfold unless there is an intervention.


#5602

Protest marches in Dublin? Block the M50 with tractors and they’ll soon waken up.


#5603

Only the “Headbangers” need to resort to violence. As the alternative arrangement committee on completion of their report admits, there must be regulatory alignment or there will be the introduction of infrastructure. Infrastructure that will be targeted and have to be backed by the military.
It is not “just a change in trading arrangements” any more than erecting the Berlin wall was " just a change in trading arrangements".

It is those falling for brexiter nonsense that we should be worried about.


#5604

Im not sure the new fangled Republicanism is really that convincing.

As Ive sad from the start of all this, the interest of the EU and the Irish Government would intersect and align up to the point that it became clear that No deal was about to happen ie there is an argument to suggest that the tactic was sound up to the point that Theresa May remained PM.

That point has passed now given the makeup of the current Tory cabinet. As a result, the interest of the institutional EU and Ireland are no longer in alignment.


#5605

Shrill and somewhat schizophrenic given the above statement would mean that you have ‘significant issues’ with yourself ie your chosen path is the one that will have caused the very thing you claim to be dead set against.


#5606

You have been on here parroting the official Irish and EU position even as it has all gone south. Just like the bust of 2008 you will find that the official or group think analysis is wrong (once again). Perhaps all you guys are stuck in the denial phase. Wake up and smell the coffee. The reality is that the WA/backstop are both as dead as a dodo, it was a good try to thwart them leaving in a meaningful way but it has failed. The UK is leaving the EU by no deal unless there is an intervention and the primary objective for Ireland should be damage limitation, not cheerleading a war of the trading blocks where we get significant collateral damage.

You are saying that no deal Brexit is no problem for Ireland, only a small percentage of GDP blah, blah, blah. I wish people should stop talking about our stupid GDP figures which include the IP of IT multinationals and the turnover of aircraft leasing companies and has little relevance to employment on the ground.

Instead focus on the employment in sectors and regions of the country. I bet that you are a “townie” with no understanding of the importance of the agricultural sector to employment in most of the country, both directly to farmers and indirectly to small local towns. There are large areas of the country where almost all the local employment is either directly related to farms or to the public and construction sectors. If we have a no deal exit with subsequent tariffs on commodities such as beef and cheese I hope that you are prepared for the protest marches you will see in Dublin as prices and salaries collapse for thousands of people and affect other linked sectors such as transport. If you are indeed involved in government I would advise you to start working on huge emergency supports for this sector because this scenario will unfold unless there is an intervention.

We should first note that Boris’s plan is almost certainly to win an early election in September then ditch the DUP and accept an NI backstop. But let’s assume it is not.

It is good that you do not deny that the overall effect of a no deal on the Irish economy will be relatively minor and in fact bring several opportunities - the state has and will have significant capacity to support those negatively affected by brexit - and help support seeking and growing external markets for Irish.
As regards cheese exports, Ireland and the UK export similar quantities and types of cheese. In a no deal brexit, due to tariffs, the UK will be unable to export its cheese to either the EU or countries and blocks with which the EU has deals: e.g. Canada, Japan, Mercosur.
( see e.g. here https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1153376840343588865 )
So there will be a lot of opportunities for Irish dairy exporters.
For beef exports, there are some but fewer opportunities to immediately substitute markets - and for those affected, the state should definitely provide assistance - whether developing markets, changing agricultural products, moving up the value chain or whatever is required.

I have spoken with a couple of beef farmers about brexit and they agreed that unwavering support for a backstop and ensuring peace was much more important than markets - even where it affected them economically.


#5607

Lads, the Backstop is a complete red herring. If Ireland somehow agreed to its removal tomorrow, there would be something else that made the Withdrawal Agreement unacceptable. The goal posts will always be moved by the fundamentalist Brexiters whose goal is to leave with no agreement at all. The only reason it’s even an issue is because there is a bloc of 10 DUP votes that is badly needed to secure any agreement. If those votes weren’t needed, then Brexit supporting unionists would have been abandoned years ago.


#5608

It certainly looks like Bojo is anticipating an election …


#5609

No I am absolutely not agreeing with you that the overall effect of no deal Brexit on Ireland will be “minor” - it will be very severe in the short and medium term for several sectors.

Your belief that beef farmers are willing to heroically see their livelihoods put on the line to somehow ward off the extreme Republican tendency to violence if they see a customs check is quite out of whack with the actual sentiments on the ground. These have been firmly relayed to the government by IFA leaders. And I am happy to see that the government in response to this has today announced a relief package to see assistance to beef farmers who are already losing money since prices paid at the factories have already cratered in advance of Brexit.


#5610

My overall feeling now is that the Brexit threat is now impending, the gloves should be off now and the best course of action for our government to try to avoid the threat of a no deal Brexit is a bilateral meeting with the UK government, conducted well away from the media.

At this meeting the firm message from the Irish government should be that a no deal exit will undoubtedly result in tariffs that will be damaging to sections of the Irish economy but the UK government will still be in a position where they require a deal with the EU, a deal that has to be approved by all remaining 27 governments.

The Irish government should make it clear in the meeting that that they will only approve a future UK-EU trade deal if the UK government pays reparations to the Irish government for the consequences of a no deal exit (damages caused by tariffs) and that in such a scenario the Irish government may also support the demands of other governments such as the Spanish over Gibraltar at that point.

Perhaps that might soften Boris’s cough over his no deal strategy.


#5611

Things really are getting nasty. Not even making a courtesy call to Varadkar/Coveney is a fiendish tactic. Johnson is off to the races…or is that Leo :grin:


#5612

Too easy.

Think.

When was the last time an IRISH Taoiseach played mind-games with a sitting US President of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA when visiting IRELAND?


#5613

Qanon-alike suggestive rhetorical questions? #conspiracy_nuttery

Bojo called Leo today. Cordial but no budge on the backstop.


#5614

So what are the options for the UK if they crash out, negotiate from a weaker position? He may have an bedfellow in trump, but trump will run him and the British people over to get more favourable trade terms for the USA. I Can’t see much happening until September. Nothing like a deadline to focus minds


#5615