Britain leaving the European Union.


#5636

Yep, for the hard of reading:
Boris and the Brexiteers have no interest in an agreement; a hard Brexit is what they want as it solidifies their vote.
The British Parliament will no confidence Boris in September as no deal appears likely.
He’ll call a GE for November.
The UK will crash out at the end of October and he’ll rule by fiat until then.

I read an interesting comment that in reality, if the UK was serious about renegotiating the WA, they now have a 500 page text right in front of them that they can just put on “track changes” - and draft their own version for discussion. They can’t do that however because the fundamental problem is they disagree about what they want. They can never put anything in writing or do anything in detail - because their position falls apart at that time.


#5637

Seems like they can’t get anything to agree on or passed in the parliament. If the backstop wasn’t the current issue there would be something else.


#5638

Worth a watch. Donohoe clutching at straws.

#5639

Well, yeah, but you sort of have to keep the door open, even if you can see them in the distance running in the opposite direction and there’s no chance they’ll turn around.

I think there’s a lot of wishful thinking going on. As superman says, there is no majority for anything in Parliament, so nothing will get passed. As ps2 says, that’ll suit Cummings et al. right down to the ground, as that guarantees a no-deal.

About all that could be looked for is Parliament directing the government to seek an extension. In the event that Labour and Tory would vote together, Raab would just request in a form that could never be agreed to.


#5640

I think the only condition for an extension will be an election, followed by Boris and co leaving once they have a clear majority and the DUP are back in the political wilderness they deserve to be.
The EU knows shit is gonna get real when Boris has a majority (and he will, many Brits love him) and this will provide clarity and a known end date. He won’t be asking for any more extensions once he doesn’t have to kotow the DUP or anyone else outside of the Tories.


#5641

#5642

Not much ‘clear’ about the following depiction of what a No Deal Hard Border might look like from last January which directly contradicts your previous post above…

"The Taoiseach said it could “involve people in uniform and it may involve the need, for example, for cameras, physical infrastructure, possibly a police presence, or an army presence to back it up”.

“The problem with that in the context of Irish politics and history is those things become targets.”

Mr Varadkar was speaking to Bloomberg Television at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

This evening, a Government spokesperson told RTÉ that Mr Varadkar was not referring to Irish personnel in his comments and the Government had no plans to deploy infrastructure or personnel at the border.

The spokesperson added that Mr Varadkar’s reference to soldiers was about British soldiers.

In the same interview with Bloomberg Television earlier today, Mr Varadkar said the backstop, designed to avoid the return of border infrastructure, is needed to ensure those scenes never materialised".

It really is incumbent on those crafting policy on behalf of the EU to begin the process (even at this late stage) of communicating clearly the likely consequences of same for those who will be most severely impacted.


#5643

Read what Varadkar said again - but this time slowly.


#5644

A hard border, temporary, permanent whatever. It all depends on what our counterparts do following their exit. The further they (as in NI) diverge the more checks etc are needed.

There was plenty of gaslighting earlier this year about a no deal not requiring infrastructure or checks but this in my view is farcical. Farcical as any alternative arrangements suggestion from the ERG. Best guess is that there will be a figure it out as it goes along approach with some unpalatable decision delayed until the last minute


#5645

The article clearly communicates apolicy that at that point envisaged no circmstance under which Irish personel b
would be manning a border in the event of No Deal.

This is the message that has been publicly floated since the get go and has been the publicly stated reasoning behind the backstop.

Youve stated that this is not now nor ever has been the Irish/EU position ie thst would mean that whatever the position is/has been, its been far from clear.

There has been zero mention of 10 year “temporary” interim arraagements etc


#5646

Thats fair enough.

Time to spell things out however in practical terms in order to allow people prepare properly for worst case scenario…which is now likely


#5647

The article clearly communicates apolicy was that at that point clearly stated that under no circmstance would Irish personel be manning a border in the event of No Deal.

I literally so not understand how you can read what was said and think it means what you wrote here.


#5648

"This evening, a Government spokesperson told RTÉ that Mr Varadkar was not referring to Irish personnel in his comments and the Government had no plans to deploy infrastructure or personnel at the border.

The spokesperson added that Mr Varadkar’s reference to soldiers was about British soldiers."


#5649

There is a massive massive difference between currently “no plans” and “under no circumstances”.

I currently have no plans to shoot my neighbour. That doesn’t mean that under no circumstances whatsoever would I be prepared to do so.

Considering this is careful diplomatic speak - (even if occasionally misspoken where done orally and off the cuff), it must be carefully read.
I assume that you are aware that that is the case and that you are being deliberately mendacious in your interpretation.


#5650

No Im not being mendacious.

Im suggesting that the clear intent of statements such as that above has been to publicly imply (and to never subsequently contradict) the notion that Irish/EU policy has been at all.times to avoid the imposition of physical infrastructure along the border through the guise of the Backstop mechanism. Further im not aware of any public mention of interim measures.

In other words if the Taoiseach coukd only countenance British personnel manning the border, and if the British consistently maintained that they had no intention of doing so, then i dont accept that the policy around the issue has been in any way clear…if it is the case that we are now preparing to install Army/Guards/INIS/Revenue therein.

At this point it would be better for all concerned if those in officialdom began spelling out the practicalities and varied potentialities around what seems to be an increasingly likely outcome.


#5651

Im suggesting that the clear intent of statements such as that above has been to publicly imply (and to never subsequently contradict) the notion that Irish/EU policy has been at all.times to avoid the imposition of physical infrastructure along the border through the guise of the Backstop mechanism. Further im not aware of any public mention of interim measures.

Indeed the position (and reality) has always been that the only way to ensure no hard border is the back stop - and also that that (no hard border as set out in the joint report) is the only to avoid a hard border.

At this point it would be better for all concerned if those in officialdom began spelling out the practicalities and varied potentialities around what seems to be an increasingly likely outcome.

That is most likely not going to happen any more clearly than it currently is because anything the Irish government say will be used and twisted by the brexiters and their propaganda organs. So any statements must be carefully calibrated.


#5652

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/the-british-are-deluded-about-germany-s-fear-of-a-no-deal-brexit-1.3981678?mode=amp
+1
Anyone who can read beyond the Anglo-Saxon-phone media can see the EU have bigger fish to fry.


#5653

#5654


#5655

it will be interesting to see how this would pan out in reality
I think we would be lucky to get away with 50k losses but the figure is still dependant on what the UK would do AFTER a crashout

Either Way the uk wil lbe in the sH1T

Toilet paper shelves ‘could be empty’ if no-deal Brexit causes supply delays

Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2019/08/14/toilet-paper-shelves-empty-no-deal-brexit-causes-supply-delays-10572133/?ito=cbshare

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