Britain leaving the European Union.


#5676

You seem to be a variance with EU trade bosses then.

What is the Common Customs Tariff? EU customs tariff defined

“The tariff is common to all EU members, but the rates of duty differ from one kind of import to another depending on what they are and where they come from. The rates depend on the economic sensitivity of products.”

And how could the EU do a deal such as Mercosur if they couldn’t apply different tariffs levels to imports coming from different parts of the world?


#5677

Nope. Two different clauses are being referred to in your quote. Firstly the most favored trading nation clause, and secondly the rules of origin clauses.

Country B imports from A and pays what ever tariffs necessary. B then resells the item to country C inside the common tariff area but C does not have to pay taxes again. B has already paid them. They do have to provide paperwork that the relevant taxes have been paid though. If a business in Ireland imports stuff from America, they pay taxes, but they are then free to export that item tax free to Germany, because the taxes have already been paid. Because the EU is so integrated the paperwork of paying taxes is covered during normal tax returns without anyone noticing it.

How will Mercosur work? This falls under the exemptions to the most favored nations clause. Two trading blocks can set an independent agreement free trade between themselves if it covers substantially all trade. This substantially all, give a little wiggle room for setting lower taxes on some agriculture products because everything else is at zero tariffs.

The UK is not a trading block, so the exemption does not apply. Also, if they want to go down that route, then they need to have substantial all trade with the EU being zero tariffs. Having substantially all trade with the EU being zero tariffs is what they have at the minute and it puts massive hurdles in setting up trade agreements with other countries. This has been red lined by the UK government.


#5678

I sure the EU will do a deal of trade and tariffs etc once the UK does what it signed up to regarding the irish border, regulatory alignment, the divorce bill etc. Im not sure how trade will be killed stone dead with tariffs as there are many tariffs already on goods into the UK and EU. that might be a real issue is the paperwork and delays due to additional checks required.
Are you expecting the EU to cut tariffs to zero on UK goods to help them out because… the EU dont act in there own economic interests and are nice people?

If the UK want to go down the route of low standards and divergence, they these products would not even be allowed into the EU so tariffs will be the least of the worries.

All in all, there will be a lot of businesses going bust


#5679

As I said earlier international trade deals are not my area of expertise, and I don’t have time to look into the area in any depth right now, but I am sure that the EU and UK could sign a trade deal that solves the upcoming tariff issues, if only even a temporary one year basis while something else is worked out, or we wait for the UK to back down on its current pretty wild stance. Perhaps see if there is a change of government there over the year.

It is interesting that the idea of free ports and NI being looked at in its entirety as a free port has now surfaced. At least we seem to be now getting to the point where new ideas are now been floated about how to get out of this mess.


#5680

I am concerned in particular with tariffs on exports to the UK. If for instance tariffs on Irish exports of beef and cheese into the UK were suddenly to be applied at the going WTO rates of 50%+ then it is easy to see that trade been killed stone dead almost overnight, with subsequent widespread job losses, as UK importers would be free to import cheaper product from elsewhere. Irish farmers have zero margin already to absorb price cuts and I doubt that Irish meat processors would have the margin to absorb much of this level of tariff. That’s the livelihood of a great many Irish people affected right there. Cross border delays or regulations would not even come into play in crippling tariff land as there would be no exports to check.


#5681

amazing if true??

pretty fuking amazing alright - they’d be giving up all their leverage
why would the US do a deal with the UK (to lower US import duties) if there was no need for a pro quid pro (lowering of the UK tarrifs)

just because some twit in the Torygraph suggested it doesn’t mean the UK Gov is seriously suggesting it


#5682

Several sources in the UK Brexit camp including inside the current government have suggested it . I believe the thinking behind it is that it will cap inflation in the UK. It would be a massive boost for us if they did indeed apply zero tariffs on imports but I would also struggle to believe that they would actually do this.

But remember that this is a radical neo liberal government now running things. We have seen already that they are prepared to prorogue their parliament. We have to give some credence that they will actually do what they say on the tin.

The US under Trump could do a deal with the UK to spite the EU and to get access to internal markets in the UK including the NHS.


#5683

so:

I fancy my neighbour’s wife and his home generally - I open my front door, invite my neighbour to have his way with my wife, eat the food from my fridge because I hope he will reciprocate?


#5684

You’ve lost me there…

I see the UK as our biggest individual customer and most people in business learn to deal very carefully with their largest customers, even if the customer is behaving badly. A lesson lost on many public servants who are typically carefree with budgets and the prospects for private sector business since, at the end of the day, it is always someone else’s money or livelihood at stake, never theirs.


#5685

I don’t know the rights and wrongs of this but yes I do see GB as our biggest customer but one that has abused that position over the years. I see also that we have a strategic need to reduce our dependence on them whenever we can. We didn’t choose Brexit but if it has an upside it is that it moves on that strategic project of disentanglement. Of course there will be pain and that pain will fall disproportionately in certain places. The decision for Ireland is there to be made. Our Government seems to have made the decision (leaving aside some last minute compromise). I say we get on with making that work just as GB will attempt to do so with the consequences of their decision.


#5686

am not an expert on the WTO but as I understand it it is possible for the UK to offer zero tariffs on imports as long as it does this for the entire world. They have already said that they plan to do this (amazing if true) so I am suggesting that they put this into a legal treaty. From the EU side of things I understand that it is possible to conclude trade deals with different countries or blocs that apply different levels of tariffs so I don’t see why the EU can’t have a trade deal with the UK that does this. I could be wrong but I am sure there are ways for the EU to have a special set of import tariffs with the UK in this scenario.

If the UK did that, then it would destroy its agriculture internally - which could not compete with foreign producers.
It would prevent the UK from entering FTAs - since why would I enter an FTA with the UK when I am already offered 0% tariffs to export into the UK market- and when my products cannot be offered comparatively better terms than the next guy.

As for the government “lying”- the government has said that the only way to avoid a hard border is through the backstop - how is that lying?


#5687

As I said earlier international trade deals are not my area of expertise, and I don’t have time to look into the area in any depth right now, but I am sure that the EU and UK could sign a trade deal that solves the upcoming tariff issues, if only even a temporary one year basis while something else is worked out, or we wait for the UK to back down on its current pretty wild stance. Perhaps see if there is a change of government there over the year.

It is interesting that the idea of free ports and NI being looked at in its entirety as a free port has now surfaced. At least we seem to be now getting to the point where new ideas are now been floated about how to get out of this mess.

  1. The EU can’t do that because it offers a precedent to others: for anyone else to sign a zero tariff FTA with the EU (or with the US or anyone big), they get the FTA only if they sign up to certain rules and conditions - e.g. recognition of geographical protection for food (remember this caused difficulty in a deal with Mexico based on the use in Mexico of the word “Manchego”), fair dealings requirements- no illegal state support to their companies to destroy companies in the importing state while having tariff free access etc. This is a second issue which the UK refuses to accept.
    Aside from the fact that the EU would not offer that to anyone, and it sets a terrible precedent that these are not actually important to the EU and can be dropped if you ask nicely, why should we give up our leverage and ability to suck every viable business out of the UK just to be “nice” to the UK? Are they really being so nice to us that they deserve that? If they were that nice to us, how do you think they should show it?

#5688

It is interesting that the idea of free ports and NI being looked at in its entirety as a free port has now surfaced. At least we seem to be now getting to the point where new ideas are now been floated about how to get out of this mess.

A free port creates 2 borders - how does that help us when we want to have no border?


#5689

I see the UK as our biggest individual customer and most people in business learn to deal very carefully with their largest customers, even if the customer is behaving badly. A lesson lost on many public servants who are typically carefree with budgets and the prospects for private sector business since, at the end of the day, it is always someone else’s money or livelihood at stake, never theirs.

The UK is not our biggest - it is our third biggest at only about 10% of our exports and falling. Furthermore, the other 90% depends on our relationship with and standing within the EU.

Secondly, we are the largest export market for the UK where the UK has a balance of trade surplus - they need us more than we need them- to follow brexiter"logic".


#5690

Indeed, I’m not sure why the fuss is being made over trade, it seems like it is being used as a proxy for political concerns (dislike of FG being the lead one?).


#5691

For those shocked, but not surprised by Booj going ahead with the prorogation of Parliament, Sean Whelan describes it well:


#5692

Its a stroke alright.

But not really that different (apart from in its efficacy) to the various attempts to scupper the result of the referendum.

Anyway, theres very little anyone in Ireland can do now beyond beginning to put in place measures to prepare. But precious little evidence of that thus far. As of last week many people still believed that Brexit will not happen.

In terms of the economics, rather than focussing on the fact that only roughly 10 percent of export trade is with the UK, identifying the number of actual jobs concentrated within that segment, as well as the amount of linked employment in terms of spinoffs, espcially outside Dublin, plus jobs reliant on easily sourced imports from the UK, might be a good place to start. Id be surprised if these are not highly labour intensive sectors ie highly charged in politcal terms.

Its likely that the political blame game will begin pretty soon and that it will be the end of some careers and the making of others.


#5693

Anyway it seems that all this talk of Britain leaving the EU might not be such a big deal after all…our latest ‘policy’ appears to be to ‘turn a blind eye’ at the border for an indefinite period.


#5694

There is no alternative.

Most of the milk consumed in the Republic of Ireland is pasteurized in Derry. It may be produced in a farm in Kildare, or where ever, it is transported north pasteurized and then distributed south again every day.

Irish law says that all milk must be pasteurized in a facility certified to EU standards by vets with EU credentials. The pasteurizing facility in Derry loses its accreditation on Brexit date; so do most, if not all, vets in Northern Ireland.

Once Brexit happens it becomes illegal to sell that milk in Dublin; it is not certified as safe for human consumption. Forget about tariffs. It becomes illegal to sell the milk! So any discussion about tariffs is irrelevant in the short term.

Repeat for countless products and services.

The only way out of this mess is to not prioritize the checking of health and safety laws in Ireland in the short term. This will buy time for the facilities and people in the North to get all their paper work in order, hopefully.

This though is not a long term solution. This is a crisis management technique.

Eventually someone is going to drink bad milk and get sick. It will then be a case of why was it allowed to sell illegal milk in Ireland? This will eventually create a legal mess with countless legal cases. Whether the bad milk was caused by dodgy facilities will be irrelevant; the milk will have been illegal and not certified as safe for human consumption.


#5695

Yes to a degree.

The world was never going end. For example anytime a new Framework Agreement is adoopted of it is thereafter implemented via legislation in each of the Member States. This invariably causes a degree of confusion as new work practices are adopted that supercede the old. Court procedures may change for example without the express knowledge or agreement of practitioners who muddle through initially until a body of precedent is established by the courts through their interpretation and application of the relevant legislation. This occurs over a period of time on the basis of trial and error and has operated in this manner for 50 years.

However Brexit is obviously on a different scale. Its a shitshow in terms of messiness but the biggest danger currently lies in what appears to be the unwillingness of politically motivated people, trenchantly opposed to Brexit, to allow the preparations to commence, …presumably because they do not wish to pre-empt the event itself.

If, as those who are currently charting our course woukd have us believe, there is no alternative to the Backstop and if, as Johnson has stated, Britain is not for turning on the same backstop issue, then we need to get down to the business of planning for the amended work practices that will ensue after 31 October.

Personally speaking id say a policy of ‘turning a blind eye for a bit’ wont really cut it if there are 100,000 job losses over a short period of time. Fianna Fail have a role to play here. If they want to truly rehabilitate themselves in the eyes of the electorate then they need to demand that the Government begin the process of earnest preparation.

On the other hand, if ‘turning a blind eye’ will now suffice indefinitely, perhaps even up to the point that a trade deal can be agreed (?)( ie rendering the whole thing another Y2K), it raises obvious questions of its own around certain parties motivations.