Britain leaving the European Union.


#5716

Yup. It could totally disrupt many many different industries. It could be just bad or catastrophic depending on how strictly people intrepid the change in law. Agriculture is probably the hardest hit. Of course all this can be avoided. It requires a legal agreement with the EU for cross border recognition of standards and a way to ensure that the standards remain compatible. And also a dispute resolution mechanism. This agreement gets written into EU and UK law. The problem is that the British government doesn’t want such an agreement. We don’t want the EU writing laws for us. Or “No Deal” in the language of Brexit.

If such a scenario plays out, the only mitigating action available is to turn a blind eye to much of it in the short term. How long can such a blind eye remain, who knows? I’m guessing only a matter of weeks.


#5717

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-02/boris-johnson-s-brexit-plans-are-hammering-ireland-s-banks?srnd=premium-europe


#5718

Big day in Westminster Circus

https://www.politico.eu/article/commons-brexit-showdown-watch-like-a-pro-2/


#5719

Government defeated: 328 v 301. Boris has lost his first ever Commons vote. Surely a general election is only a matter of time.


#5720

Its still all up in the air. It seems pointless to delay for 3 months and the EU would be right not to grant., unless there was an election There needs to be an election even if that means Alexander the Oaf or Corbyn getting a clear majority.


#5721

Pointless to delay yet again but they will. My feeling is that if they do to allow an election (otherwise tell them to bog off) and formation of a new government, it should be for a month maximum to keep minds focussed otherwise it will keep getting put off again and again as nobody in the parliament seems to know what they want except the hardliners. Thoroughly sick and tired of this faffing about by the brits at this stage.


#5722

I disagree entirely. Endless delay without a resolution is the perfect situation for everyone.
The Leavers are always leaving.
The Remainers always remain in.
The EU still gets UK budget contributions.
Everybody’s happy. :smiley:
What’s not to like? :slight_smile:


#5723

The EU want shot of these wasters. They have spent far too much time and energy on Brexit and the UK are STILL at each others throats. There is other business in Brussels needing attention once the UK leave. Further extension and negotiation are out.


#5724

A government without a majority seeks an election from an opposition running scared.

As one Brexiteer said tonight in Westminster maybe a vote of confidence in her majesty’s opposition is needed.

Coming off the back of Tony Blair inspired conspiracy theories

In a speech to the Institute of Government in London, Mr Blair said: “The Brexiteers are laying a trap, to seem as if pushed into an election, whilst actively preparing for one.”

Denouncing Mr Johnson’s team as “a gang of adventurers”, he nonetheless predicted that an early poll would deliver a “comfortable” majority in the Commons for the Conservatives, because opposition parties would split the Remain vote.


#5725

There was a frank exchange between Matt Frei and a senior French politician on Channel 4 this evening. When asked about negotiations with the British, the answer was…bullshit there are none.


#5726

To coin a phrase that defines modern Britian - “Well, he would say that, wouldnt he?”

If he were in cahoots with a UK Remain faction (heaven forfend!) it would be in their interests to paint the Johnson govt as being incompotent and out of control, wouldnt it?

(Im not saying they’re not incompotent or out of control but I think theres far, far more to this than meets the eye…)


#5727

Ignorance, stupidity or spin?

Assuming theres any truth to this, and assuming Johnson gets his majority, then this will do to Fine Gael what the crash of 2008 did to Fianna Fail.

This is quite a gamble on the part of Varadkar and Co.


#5728

Ah well sure back in Government with largely the same policies within 5 or 6 years so


#5729

Future projections are always tricky but the figures are broadly in line with other job loss figures.
Boris can even get his family to vote for him these days. No reason to believe he anything other that the oaf he portrays. Still, the UK electorate no more than our own likes to elect incompetents.


#5730

Its interesting to me that all that the MP’s as a whole have a group think that it will be possible to kick the Brexit can down the road indefinitely. There doesnt seem to be any lip service given to any any other outcome to a request to extend (and pretend) another Brexit date, even in the british media at all.
What if the EU says no?
Surely at some point the French or maybe the Finns say enough is enough and say no more extensions. Anyone think we are near that yet?


#5731

IMO the EU will not grant the UK another extension. For what purpose? So they get another few months to argue amongst themselves? The deadline is October 31st. They are sick and tired of British domestic disputes (like the rest of us). They want them out by the deadline, unless the UK can pull their act together. I can’t see that happening in less than 60 days.


#5732

The EU don’t want a No Deal Brexit though.
Trying to enforce a deadline heightens that risk.

The simplest thing for the EU is to extend the deadline out indefinitely.
Then ignore the UK until they come back with their final decision.
Providing any of that is legal of course.

The second option is to start over with the negotiations, but this time with no deadline.


#5733

Basically the UK are collectively trying to abandon Brexit right now and there’s a mass face saving and blame game exercise playing out. The EU and Ireland need to continue standing back and allowing them implode.


#5734

Boris Johnson’s plans to diverge from EU rules after Brexit will reduce the bloc’s willingness to strike an ambitious trade deal with the UK, officials and diplomats in Brussels have warned. Mr Johnson’s team this week told their EU counterparts they want to abandon prior commitments made by Theresa May to maintain a “level playing field” in areas including environment and social standards in exchange for a free-trade area for goods.

However, Britain’s new demand clashes with EU conditions for trade negotiations and is fuelling concerns among governments and within the European Parliament, which would have a binding say over any deal. EU trade deals require approval from the EU parliament and the Council, which represents national governments.

Any pact with Britain is also likely to require ratification in national parliaments. The European Commission told a meeting of EU ambassadors on Wednesday that, given the political resistance in Europe against the recent Canada free trade deal and also to talks with Latin America’s Mercosur bloc, the obstacles to ratifying a UK trade agreement should not be underestimated. “There could be problems to ratify an FTA at any subsequent stage unless this [level playing field] is balanced,” the commission said, according to a diplomatic note of the meeting. Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s Brexit co-ordinator, told the FT on Thursday that “asking for a basic trade deal with the Union while refusing regulatory alignment and tearing up their level playing field commitments means the UK will find it very difficult to achieve an ambitious trade agreement with the EU”. “In this scenario, ratification would be further jeopardised,” he said.


#5735

The Withdrawal Agreement is designed to be a temporary measure (hence the backstop) until a final deal can be put in place. If the UK has no plans for an aligned trade deal as the permanent trade arrangement, is there any option other than a hard Brexit? And with it a hard border in Ireland?

It seems that the Irish government (on behalf of the peace agreement) and the EU (on behalf of the single market) are entirely right to insist on the backstop or some equivalent arrangement for Northern Ireland. Anything else would be surrender and would be hugely damaging to the integrity of Ireland and the EU in future.