In your opinion. Many other people might say that the backstop was a concocted mechanism, totally overblowing the impact of trade checks on the border, which has turned out to be a handy mechanism to delay the exit of the UK from the EU. A mechanism which has backfired and has led, along with other elements of the WA, to no deal being more acceptable to many in the UK. At this point the backstop is a busted flush and the EU should be bringing a new deal to the table to avoid a no deal exit.
It is heartening that parties and individuals opposed to a no deal exit looks like they have come together for now and have managed to delay a no deal exit until January 2020 (assuming Johnson actually asks for this delay).
However it looks like this is only a delay and the Labour Party will only be able to delay a General Election for so long. All recent polling evidence shows that the Conservatives are most likely to emerge from the election as the biggest party, if not a majority, as Corbyns rating are so unbelievably bad. In fact unless there is a Lib/Lab pact the Liberals will gain many Labour seats. Council elections last night in 3 UK constituencies saw the Conservatives increasing their vote in northern and midlands areas, even given Johnson’s floundering behaviour at present.
If I get this right we should accept a hard border to help the Brits out of a corner they have backed themselves into. It would be pretty easy to put custom checks down the Irish sea. Just because the DUP doesn’t like it doesn’t mean it is not the best solution. it really needs the opposition to put on their big boy pants and get on with it.
My sister, who lives in Scotland sent me this, apparently projected onto Edinburgh Castle.
First of all lets look at this “hard border” phrase being bandied about. Given that the CTA will continue to apply this means that people will be able to move freely as at present. So we are talking about goods checks. The UK say they don’t intend to put infrastructure at the border. So “this hard border” doesn’t look all that hard does it?
Secondly I am suggesting that we do everything to avoid a no deal exit as among other things it is predicted to lead to a 50k loss in employment in the ROI, including 10k in tourism and many more in farming/food processing, plus God knows how many other known and unknown impacts. So its to avoid this shitstorm, not to “help the Brits out of a corner” as you put it.
I would love it if we were able to get the goods checks put into the Irish sea, bit we haven’t even been trying to convince the DUP that this could lead to a win/win for Northern Ireland. Why are we/EU negotiation team not meeting with the DUP to discuss? And asking the EU to allow NI become something of a free trade area, within both the EU and UK customs areas as the same time.
Its incredible that so many people want to stick forever to a rigid position - no change whatsoever allowed to the WA - when this potential shitstorm is fast approaching.
This was the EU proposal, the DUP said no, the whole of the UK had to be in the backstop.
The reason for job losses? Well that’s because these people are customers of Irish goods and services. The Irish government would do well now to remember that. Think the German car manufacturers have certainly got that message to Merkel by this stage.
Respect for the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the United Kingdom would also not go amiss. We may disagree with Northern Irelands position, but we must be seen to respect it. The beloved Good Friday agreement that everyone loves to bring up did after all require respect for NIs position within the UK, and acceptance that the Union (and by implication the United Kingdom internal market) is secure until such time as there is a possible majority in the North to challenge that position.
Unionists are watching how Dublin behaves here, and noting it for when the time comes for a border poll, and seeing how ‘inclusive’ and ‘tolerant’ Varadkar/Coveney etc really are of people who do not share their globalist/open border stances.
Oh, uk ‘said’ they wouldnt put any infrastructure or checks. Silly me for thinking they would have to. I guess i got it completely wrong then but they said so.
Lets see how they get on
The sooner the better they figure things out the better.
Yes but did we, and have we continued to try to, sell them that idea as a win-win for NI? And to also try to win over the Unionist party in NI to that idea.
In recent days Nigel Dodds has remarked that the DUP is open to the idea of NI being part of an All-Ireland common food standards area as a partial alternative to a backstop. So they have shifted a bit in their thinking, I hope that we are going to follow up with talks exploring ideas around this, and not merely sit on our backstops at this crucial time.
The DUP are well aware of what was on offer. The NI business community aren’t impressed with them. But the DUP did get an absolutely enormous donation, from someone who wished to remain anonymous, and was able to do so under NI election donor rules, which they used to pay for a Brexit wrap around on the London Metro freesheet. The DUP may not be swayed by the best interest of Northern Ireland.
Perhaps so but I imagine they have cold feet over the impact of a no deal exit and how it would affect their vote among NI farmers going forward. And might be looking for a way to climb down from their current position. Nigel Dodd’s remarks this week were interesting.
Simplest thing might be to slip them a few million £, border down the Irish sea. We’re happy, about 70%+ of NI population are happy, English wouldn’t give a rats and we can all move on…
Johnson’s hero Churchill put a border down the Irish sea during the emergency.
Unless the tourists are dragging trailers of brown ale, the 10k figure for loss of tourism seems unlikely given the CTA will remain in place whatever happens. Unless the UK renege on that agreement too.
If the British are not going to put a border in place, then happy days for our exporters too.
However, if the loss of jobs is based on a fall in sterling and a recession in the UK, then I don’t see that any sort of border (or not) makes a damn bit of difference. A Withdrawal Agreement is in the UK’s grasp, and it will be a self-inflcited wound (yet another!) to do without one. A bit like their bowling yesterday…
BoJo will resign probably, to force the opposition to quisling a deal or an extension. Election likely coming soon.
A good analysis of the miscalculations of Johnson/Cummins and a likely path forward.
I don’t know. There is no certainty that the opposition will win an election or the tories. I don’t see the oaf resigning either.
The Backstop permutations make my head hurt but would there be any merit in having the backstop include ROI/NI and Scotland thereby respecting Scottish wishes to remain and allow time for Scotland to choose its way forward without being dumped out of the EU. It also means NI is not being treated differently to (all) other parts of the UK. I am suspecting its grand for ROI/NI/Scotland but maybe a can of worms for the (rump) UK. Although maybe that Can is just another artifact of the Brexit vote result.
England leaving the UK is going to be Johnson’s big reveal on the 31st October. Leaves the other 3 countries in the EU and solves multiple intractable problems including the backstop and Scottish independence from England while remaining in the EU.
Who would have thought it, BoJo is contemplating throwing Arlene and the DUP under a bus.