It’s the Trump playbook in operation in the UK. The lack of a written constitution helps.
Opinion polls are usually nothing more than a snapshot of public opinion within a given margin of error but this poll could be a game changer.
A poll showing a majority, however slight, in favour of Irish unity will put pressure on the Secretary of State because he is obliged to run a referendum
“if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”,
He couldn’t ignore the evidence of opinion polls like this in making his decision. Lord Ashcroft is a Tory heavyweight.
( I doubt if 1 in 100 people in the Republic could name the secretary of state for Northern Ireland although in effect he is the governor of the province. The number in Britain would be even lower ! )
The most worrying feature of the pole is how divided the two communities in Northern Ireland are about Brexit.
While its inevitable that people will play politics around this issue in order to try and gain the upper hand, hyperbolic claims that suggest Johnson is about to morph into a fascist dictator anytime soon really need to be called out for the nonsense that they are.
Its worth pointing out in this regard that Johnson has tried to call an election, not once but twice, over the course of the past fortnight and has been scuppered in his intent by a Parliament which appears unwilling to respect the result of a democratically held rederendum, seemingly on the sole basis that it does not tally with the its own preferred outcome. Coup d’Etat, how are you
A further common criticism of the supposedly anti democratic nature of the process to date has been the referencing of Scotland and Northern Ireland being compelled to leave the EU in opposition to the wishes of majorities in both countries. To impose the will of a majority in England on people in Northern Ireland is, the argument goes, an affront to democracy. Imdeed, this is an argument for which I have sympathy. Nontheless, the same Parliament has recently declared its intent to impose English cultural norms as they pertain to the provision of abortion services in Northern Ireland against what appears to be the express wish of the majority in the North.
In other words democracy only ever appears to be ‘in danger’ when the liberal establishment suffers a loss.
The truth is that Johnson and his merry band are not fascists. They are simply old school nationalists who may or may not be somewhat looney tune delusionsal (the answer to that will only be answered in time). There is no immediate danger to democracy beyond, perhaps, the growing alienation of an ever growing constituency of the voting public from the entire political mainstream (of whatever hue) due to that same mainstream’s absolute refusal (over a period of decades) to represent the interests of anyone other than those who look, sound and act like itself…with the unwillingness to respect the result of the referendum being a latest example of same.
Im not sure where anyone said he is a fascist, but in the theme of strawman arguments…
I have to call bullsshhitttt on this one
Show us the polling data on this
You might look up how Hitler and Mussolini came to power.
Coup d’etat it wasn’t.
Not that I think the brexiters are fascists, but I do think they are chancers, like many in the Nazi administration.
Cummings makes a solid Goebbels, with Mogg cutting a dash as Heydrich?
…would it be fair to assume that you’re not a fan of the whole Brexit thing?
Numerous commentators were suggesting that the strokes employed to try and get Brexit over the line the week before last were akin to a Coup d’Etat. The Guardian article that I was referring to previously above also implies that democracy is in the process of being eroded via Brexit. I think this is somewhat ludicrous given the establishment attitude toward the result of the referendum in the first instance and its deliberate avoidance of elections in the second ie its all just politics, dirty and stroke laden yes, but basic politics and fully legal nontheless. Granted it isnt what we are used to seeing from the Brits.
Re the reference to levels of opposition to abortion in the North, its freely available via google. Most people support a degree of liberalisation under certain circumstances but not the type of unrestricted access that exists in the rest of the UK and whicj is now being proposed by Parliament at the behest of an MP from London ie the same principle of imposing Englands will on the North as is the case in Brexit. One however is deemed anti democratic while the other is deemed a form of liberation. Eye of the beholder and all that.
See here for some detail of attitudes commissioned by the University of Ulster two years ago https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ulster.ac.uk/amp/news/2017/june/ulster-university-research-reveals-attitudes-to-abortion-in-northern-ireland
I dont doubt that many of them may have spent their formative years dreaming of wearing uniforms. Id still expect however that the uniforms of their dreams would have been green rather than the greyish Hugo Boss variety !
Thanks for the link. It confirms my point entirely.
In relation to the erosion of democracy, politicians on all sides share the blame. I can live with their half truths but the outright liar’s currently in power are a danger to all of us. I have only a slight doubt that the UK will elect the lying oaf Johnson.
4 posts were split to a new topic: NGO Watch - Amnesty cell pushing for All Ireland Abortion
Ok, people need to calm down just a little bit.
Coup d’état, definition:
“a sudden and decisive action in politics, especially one resulting in a change of government illegally or by force.”
In absolutely no way can what happened in the UK over the last month be described as sudden or decisive; there has been no change in Government; there was no use of force. Nothing about what happened can be classified as a Coup d’état.
Okay, fair enough, the courts have ruled that some of the activity was illegal. This a Coup d’état does not make. A government bending the laws just beyond breaking point is not a Coup. It’s called normal business as usual.
Parliament may have been suspended, or Prologued, illegally. Okay. But what no one is mentioning is that Parliament could have overruled the suspension. They had the time to do so. Parliament choose not to.
This is why there’ll be no deal, and why prostituting ourselves over the border does us no good. Animosity to the backstop is an excuse. If the backstop was removed, there’d be another excuse not to have a deal.
Add together Tory, Brexit party, and UKIP and you get to 51%…
Talking about “prostituting ourselves” is nonsense and is the language of extremism.
Right now a useful analogy is that the UK government is driving a Landrover full speed ahead the wrong way down a one way street and won’t stop and the EU is coming up the street in a bus. The ROI is seated in the front of that bus. If there is an impact the UK will do a great deal of damage to itself but we are going to get a significant hit at the front of the bus.
Should we negotiate with the UK to at least slow down the Landrover to 30kmh and offer to slow to a halt ourselves so that most damage is avoided, or should we insist that any damage will be their fault and continue to play a game of chicken as you are suggesting we should do?
At least there now seems to be some talking going on behind the scenes, even if its very late in the day, initiated by sane people on the EU side who want to talk to the driver of the Landrover in a bid to get him to at least slow down. Forget the WA. If we could at least now achieve a simple written agreement that the UK would not apply import tariffs to ROI goods in return for the EU to at least partially ignore the NI trade border and agree the same for Northern Ireland exports then at least we could avoid some of the worst of the oncoming damage (thousands of job losses in both the Republic and Northern Ireland).
In support of Onion’s position:
It is sounding like an NI backstop that isn’t a called a backstop - perhaps a permanent trade deal decided for NI in advance of a permanent trade deal for the rest of the UK?
I think we all know that zero tariffs are fanciful in the event of the UK breaking its commitment made under article 50 and the GFA.
What may help is if the UK still has regulatory alignment for a few years while they figure out what they want.
O dear. Johnson is roasted in public.
So he or his security does not reserve the right to not appear in front a baying crowd shouting and honking horns like both sides do outside Westminster?
When he came to Dublin last week, Merrion square was fairly locked down anywhere within shouting distance of Govt buildings
i dont see any issue with his non appearance, it just makes him look meek and cowardly. The lack of detail on legally operable alternative is more of an issue.
Meek and cowardly … and a liar. He keeps on saying things are looking more optimistic with the EU. But the normally meek Luxembourgish PM let him have with both barrels in his absence. And the EU generally are getting tired of BoJo claiming he is making progress while not a single idea has been tabled in writing. He just keeps mouthing that they’ll have to move on the backstop in favour of “alternative arrangements”, without letting anyone in on what they might be.
Either he’s lying about having the slightest interest in cutting a deal or, more likely, he’s the victim of his own monumental arrogance in thinking he could stroll into town and set the agenda. As Xavier Bettel said, the decision to leave was unilateral, the decision about the future relationship is not.
Interesting tweet which seems to suggest that the UK could make a go of the whole thing, if permitted ie whats Singapore if not a success story?