Britain leaving the European Union.


#5819

Hi Poacher. I’m blushing here but in fairness you and I were some of the few on here that could see that the backstop mechanism had failed and it was time to try something else.

I agree with most of your analysis above but would differ on a few details. The solution I had envisaged more recently was in fact a free trade zone for NI. The Johnson deal moves some of the way there but the EU have not really been encouraged to relax their customs rules enough in my view.

Taking the long term view it would be in everybody’s interest to see the NI economy been built up to be more self-supporting and having NI as a proper free trade zone with open borders to both the EU and the rest of the UK would have been a great way to bolster their economy. Our government should have been on a mission to convince both the EU and Unionists that this would have been a good thing. The Johnson deal leaves NI in an uncertain place from a business perspective, For instance in 6 years it could join wholly in customs terms with the rest of the UK so there is not a huge incentive for firms to set up there.

I don’t see any great incentive for a push for a United Ireland happening in the next 10 years as NI will still be reliant on massive subvention from the UK and we will have been seen to have been part of the betrayal of the Unionist community over the Johnson deal.

I think that Johnson’s deal will be backed by all the ERG and just about enough Labour MPs to squeak through the HOC. The alternative will be an extension with a UK GE and Johnson will romp home. Remain in the UK have lost mainly due to a shocking array of political leaders, notably Labour’s.

So we are now going to be facing into the reality of a hard Brexit at the end of 2020 which will be a burden for Irish exporters and I can only hope that the UK will stick to their aspirations for zero tariffs on EU exports to the UK, which is only in the political declaration at this stage. So we still have to cross that massive bridge in 2020.


#5820

Um, well done on the backslapping lads, very stylish.
Isn’t this the original backstop (NI only) deal that May proposed? I’m struggling to understand how it being presented by the slippery piglet makes it different?


#5821

As I understand it the originally proposed NI-only backstop would have had NI in the EU Customs Union and Single Market for goods for ever. From reports the Johnson deal has NI in a fudged version of the CU and the NI Assembly can vote to leave in 6 years despite Irish opposition so its not really a “backstop” any more. But I have not read the texts of either so perhaps others can provide a better analysis.


#5822

I did notice in the text that NI can have different VAT rates than the rest of the UK.
They can match Ireland on rates, exemptions, etc.


#5824

Its hardly jumping around the Courtyard of Dublin Castle now is it?

On first look it appears to be the least worst deal on offer for Ireland in so far as it seeks to avoid the hard border option.

Even Guardian columnists are welcoming it and questioning what opposition to it would be likely to achieve. Basically, the railroading of Ireland (the supposed impediment to the previous versions) has been removed.

How it differs to May is that it creates a de facto border of sorts at the Irish sea, something that May expressly ruled out.

However the devil may be in the detail if northern nationalists feel theyre being set up for another boundary commission type scenario. Lets see.

It hasnt passed the Commons yet but apoears to stand a better chance of doing so than the previous offerings


#5825

Make no mistake its better than a no deal Brexit but I still do not like it by any means. We will be facing a hard deal exit for Great Britain after the transition period with attendant worries over tariffs and quotas and extra required documentation for our exporters. Plus the saga of negotiating a UK EU trade deal that we still have to sit through.

It is really regrettable that the Remain-leaning MPs in the UK were unable to agree around a form of soft Brexit and get it accepted as a cross-party formula for the UK to leave in a way that would have been the least damaging for us. I really do not like Corbyn and his posse’s fence sitting strategy and the Lib Dems were no help either with their ultra Remain stance.


#5826

The original NI backstop would have ended when some agreement was in place between the UK and the EU. It had the ‘potential’ to be permanent.
To me it is very little in the difference, single market, customs union, with one potential outlet and more admin costs paperwork etc. Who knows if it will pass. I’d be surprised if everything runs smoothly in the next few weeks never mind the trade deal.

I can’t even see how you get a majority without agreeing to a referendum.


#5827

It’s hilarious how quickly the narrative has shifted here. Before Boris came along, maintaining the integrity of the union was one of the biggest issues on the Brexit side. That’s all been torn up and virtually all of the Conservative party members look likely to get behind the deal - all of a sudden the DUP are very isolated. Of course by tomorrow, the whole thing will have turned ass about face when Boris loses the vote (courtesy of the DUP) and we are back to square one.


#5828

Tactics versus strategy.


#5829

I’ll just leave this here.


#5830

If we’re backslapping, didn’t I say that they needed to rename the backstop as the name was toxic ?They listened and called it a protocol. And fudged it up a bit.

It’s fierce interesting. DUP overplayed their hand. I wonder could they muster the Ulster street into a general strike ? Theyre a crafty bunch.

What’s terrible for the DUP is the lack of a veto. Because they wanted a precedent of being able to veto reunification as well. I’m not betting on reunification any time soon btw, with all the population replacement and resettlement going on in ROI.

I’m still hearing knobheads like Con Coughlin saying that Britain is going to reassert itself on the World stage. When in actual fact the whole withdrawal has been Suez for Slow Learners. After cocking up so badly who would invite them to do anything on the world stage ?


#5831

So do we have ADF Johnson dead in a ditch yet?

Defeated in the letwin vote because no one trusts the slippery piglet. So it looks like he is on the backfoot for Monday. Cluster muck to continue.


#5832

Eoghan Harris “proves” that he was right all along on Brexit (as on everything else). Only one teeny tiny point eluded his prodigious foresight - he said Boris would never abandon the DUP :clown_face:

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/eoghan-harris-boris-feels-our-love-spare-some-for-our-unionist-neighbours-38612431.html

His ability to be “right all along” is truly remarkable for a man who has gone from Trotskyist revolutionary to avid supporter of David Trimble with many weird stopping points along the way.


#5833

ERG member Liddell-Grainger scolds his local farming community:

image

And he tells them to suck it up:

image

As it happens, the NFU hierarchy didn’t vote or campaign for Brexit, they took a neutral stance because their council was pro-Remain while their deluded farmer members voted Leave. It seems the farmers have now taken fright at the possibility of no deal, no CAP replacement, and no tariff protections. In fairness to them, this is what they were sold in 2016:


#5834

Now it dawns on Eoghan Harris what a disaster the DUP have brought upon themselves by supporting Brexit. He tells them they must choose been Brexit and the Union. Very logical, but if the DUP leadership now turn to their supporters and say Brexit will destroy the union, what credibility will the DUP have left?

[https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/eoghan-harris-an-open-letter-to-the-dup-conference-in-belfast-38634530.html]
(https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/eoghan-harris-an-open-letter-to-the-dup-conference-in-belfast-38634530.html)

No coverage down here of an amazing poll by LucidTalk in NI over the past week. Among other fascinating findings, 75% of DUP supporters would prefer a no Deal Brexit if the alternative was remaining in the EU. These are not just turkeys voting for Christmas, they are lemmings rushing headlong to their doom.

Now more than ever we need a serious debate North and South about the future of this Island but the media down here is simply not up to the task.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-65-of-voters-in-northern-ireland-believe-brexit-makes-irish-unity-more-likely-within-ten-years-38635481.html


#5835


#5836

Revisiting my October marker to update:

Tactic was Deal. Strategy was GE.

Well Done Borris you American born Russian agent you! :ninja:

Continue…


#5837

Mr Varadkar is awful awful positive on the UK result.

"It’s a positive thing that we have decisive outcome in Britain in their elections, we had for a few years a parliament that wasn’t able to form a majority around anything, now we have a majority in the House of Commons to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement, and next steps will be to ratify that agreement which guarantees no border between north and south, the protection of the common travel area and British and Irish citizens rights will be protected.

https://www.irishnews.com/news/generalelection/2019/12/13/news/taoiseach-leo-varadkar-boris-win-is-a-positive-thing-1790153/

I would have assumed the total opposite, thus sounds like turd polishing spin for domestic consumption so the natives don’t catch on to what has occurred, but I’m open to reality correcting my biasesesesss you seee.e.e.e.e…e.e.e.e.eee.e…


#5838

I’ll tell you what’s mad…the idea that the relative strength of your opposite numbers parliamentary position will change your negotiating position. It doesnt.

It’s a madness that’s intoxicating the Tories right now.


#5839

Yeah, I saw a news presenter yesterday suggesting that the EU will be more accommodating because Bojo has a stronger mandate. The other mad thing is Bojo’s notion that the EU trade deal is easy because the UK is starting from a position of total regulatory alignment.

I’m afraid the “Get Brexit Dunners” are in for a sharp shock after January. The EU has been crystal clear that they have no intention of giving the Brits a competitive advantage through market access without corresponding commitments. The choice will be either to stay in alignment and pay for market access, or to hammer out individual deals in dozens of different areas which will take as long as it takes.