A well paid job, you do not have the “ability” to lose?
What job is that?
Poor choice of word. I meant likelihood or realistic possibility.
irisheconomy.ie/index.php/20 … s-q1-2013/
Seamus coffey makes a point that the banks state that where borrowers with restructured loans are fully meeting their new arrangements that doesn’t mean that the loans are now servicable because many of those loans have a payment holiday or less than interest owd repayment amount that can’t be sustained in the long term.
There is huge scope for “creativity” in these stats, and I’m sure the banks and CB are happy for some to be applied. The “true” picture is worse than what we are presented with, you can bet on that.
I want to see Japlandic’s graphs on this but they are blocked here 
BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q2 2013 figures
(note: analysis below includes restated figures for previous quarter)
centralbank.ie/polstats/stat … istics.pdf
(We also have a thread for latest Residential Mortgages figures here)
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&p=687306#p687306
Outstanding:
Total BTL mortgage loan accounts outstanding - at end of Q2 2013 148,529 (Q1 2013 149,395) [Change in period: -866 or -0.6%]
Arrears:
Total BTL mortgage arrears cases outstanding - at end of Q2 2013 which are:
- In arrears up to 90 days 9,622 (Q1 2013 10,002) [Change in period: -380 or -3.8%]
- In arrears 91 to 180 days 4,739 (Q1 2013 4,609) [Change in period: -130 or -2.8%]
- In arrears over 180 days 25,587 (Q1 2013 24,760) [Change in period: +827 or +3.3%]
of which - In arrears 181 to 360 days 6,369 (Q1 2013 6,561) [Change in period: -192 or -2.9%]
- In arrears 361 to 720 days 8,985 (Q1 2013 9,267) [Change in period: -282 or +3.0%]
- In arrears over 720 days 10,233 (Q1 2013 8,932) [Change in period: +1,301 or +14.6%]
Total BTL arrears cases over 90 days outstanding 30,326 (Q1 2013 29,369) [Change in period: +957 or +3.3%]
% of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days 20.4% (Q1 2013 19.7%) [Change in period: +0.7%]
Repossessions:
BTL properties in possession - at end of Q2 2013 502 (Q1 2013 479) [Change in period: +23 or +4.8%]
-
of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order to date in 2013 45
(Q1 30, Q2 15) -
of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2012 Not fully provided
(Q1 Unknown, Q2 Unknown, Q3 28, Q4 22) -
of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned to date in 2013 107
(Q1 47, Q2 60) -
of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2012 Not fully provided
(Q1 Unknown, Q2 Unknown, Q3 46, Q4 66)
Restructured Mortgages:
Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of Q2 2013 21,563 (Q1 2013 21,504) [Change in period: +59 or +0.3%]
- of which are not in arrears 131,182 or 61.1% (Q1 2013 13,141 or 61.1%) [Change in period: +41 or +0%]
So we can see:
- Arrears went from 19.7% Q1 2013 to 20.4% Q2 2013
- 30,326 (20.4% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 21,563 (14.5% of all BTLs) restructured =
51,899 or 34.9 % of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (up from 34.1% in Q1 2013)
Where’s ‘here’ ?
If BTL landlords who are collecting rent on properties and not paying the mortgage were to have the properties repossessed by the banks, then there would be a decent chance of the current renters being able to afford to buy one.
Rents in Dublin have gon fucking crazy at the moment. It’s a genuine source of worry in our family at the moment that we will somehow have to find €4,000 or €5,000 of after tax income to cover a rent increase, or else move into a poorly-insulated 1980’s shithole with one toilet. While all the while my taxes are being used to prop up the market and protect the same landlords from having their investments repossessed.
Which minister is the right one to shout at about this? Jan O’Sullivan doesn’t seem to give a shit about the working renter. I don’t think anyone does, we seem to be the single largest grouping in Ireland without a lobbying voice.
Work.
That can easily be fixed. Start here and the accom & property forum on Boards to get going.
Even something as simple as letters to local elected reps will get attention. A nice standardised letter will do the trick to let them know renters are starting to get organised and that responses (or lack of them) will be publicly known.
I’d like to see a table showing all the TD’s (and councillors) with a “renter friendliness” rating.
**BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q3 2013 figures **
(note: analysis below includes restated figures for previous quarter)
centralbank.ie/polstats/stat … istics.pdf
(We also have a thread for latest Residential Mortgages figures here)
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&p=687306#p687306
Outstanding:
Total BTL mortgage loan accounts outstanding - at end of Q3 2013 147,610 (Q2 2013 148,529) [Change in period: -919 or -0.6%]
Arrears:
Total BTL mortgage arrears cases outstanding - at end of Q3 2013 40,426 (Q2 2013 39,948) [Change in period: +478 or +1.2%]
which are:
- In arrears up to 90 days 9,199 (Q2 9,622) [Change in period: -423 or -4.4%]
- In arrears 91 to 180 days 4,552 (Q2 2013 4,739] [Change in period: -187 or -3.9%]
- In arrears over 180 days 26,675 (Q2 2013 25,587) [Change in period: +1,088 or +4.3%]
of which - In arrears 181 to 360 days 6,403 (Q2 2013 6,369) [Change in period: +34 or +0.5%]
- In arrears 361 to 720 days 8,675 (Q2 2013 8,985) [Change in period: -310 or -3.5%]
- In arrears over 720 days 11,597 (Q2 2013 10,233) [Change in period: +1,364 or +13.3%]
Total BTL arrears cases over 90 days outstanding 31,227 (Q2 2013 30,326) [Change in period: +901 or +3.0%]
% of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days 21.2% (Q2 2013 20.4%) [Change in period: +0.8%]
Repossessions:
BTL properties in possession - at end of Q3 2013 516 (Q2 2013 502) [Change in period: +14 or +2.8%]
-
of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order to date in 2013 76
(Q1 30, Q2 15, Q3 31) -
of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2012 Not fully provided
(Q1 Unknown, Q2 Unknown, Q3 28, Q4 22) -
of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned to date in 2013 138
(Q1 47, Q2 60, Q3 31) -
of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2012 Not fully provided
(Q1 Unknown, Q2 Unknown, Q3 46, Q4 66)
Restructured Mortgages:
Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of Q3 2013 21,607 (Q2 2013 21,563) [Change in period: +44 or +0.2%]
- of which are not in arrears 13,152 or 60.9% (Q2 2013 13,182 or 61.1%) [Change in period: -30 or -0.2%]
So we can see:
-
Arrears went from 20.4% Q2 2013 to 2% Q3 2013
-
31,227 (21.2% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 21,607 (14.6% of all BTLs) restructured =
52,834 or 35.8% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (up from 34.9% in Q2 2013) -
The % of arrears cases over 90 days (31,227) which is 21.2% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 538 in the 12 months from Q4 2012 and Q3 2013 = 1.72%
And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.
BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q4 2012 and Q3 2013 was 98 or just 0.31%, meaning
only 1 in 323 residential mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.
This despite there being 8,675 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 11,597 over 2 years or more in arrears
irishexaminer.com/business/b … 50980.html
Maybe 15% of the 20k buy to lets more than 1 year in arrears have rent receivers.
What % are not let out?
What % is the rent being handed over but not covering the mortgage?
AIB dragging their heels as usual. Considering how many staff are underwater with buy to lets it is not surprising.
AIB going from 40 to 1,100 rent receivers and BoI doing something similar? That should be a boost for one profession.
Maybe they can all go out and buy houses then. 
**BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q4 2013 figures **
(Note 1: analysis below includes figures restated by Central Bank for previous quarter)
(Note 2: BTL figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&p=687306#p687306)
Report Link
centralbank.ie/polstats/stat … istics.pdf
Outstanding:
Total BTL mortgage loan accounts outstanding - at end of Q4 2013 145,530 (Q3 2013 147,610) [Change in period: -2,080 or -1.4%]
Arrears:
Total BTL mortgage arrears cases outstanding - at end of Q4 2013 39,250 (Q3 2013 40,396) [Change in period: -1,146 or -2.8%]
which are:
- In arrears up to 90 days 8,544 (Q3 9,218) [Change in period: -674 or -7.3%]
- In arrears 91 to 180 days 4,366 (Q3 2013 4,552] [Change in period: -186 or -4.1%]
- In arrears over 180 days 26,340 (Q3 2013 26,626) [Change in period: -286 or -1.1%]
of which - In arrears 181 to 360 days 6,030 (Q3 2013 6,354) [Change in period: -324 or -5.1%]
- In arrears 361 to 720 days 8,092 (Q3 2013 8,675) [Change in period: -583 or -6.7%]
- In arrears over 720 days 12,218 (Q3 2013 11,597) [Change in period: +621 or +5.4%]
Total BTL arrears cases over 90 days outstanding 30,706 (Q3 2013 31,178) [Change in period: -472 or -1.5%]
% of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days 21.1% (Q3 2013 21.1%) [Change in period: 0%]
Repossessions:
BTL properties in possession - at end of Q4 2013 503 (Q3 2013 516) [Change in period: -13 or -2.5%]
-
of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2013 100
(Q1 30, Q2 15, Q3 31, Q4 24) -
of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2012 Not fully provided
(Q1 Unknown, Q2 Unknown, Q3 28, Q4 22) -
of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2013 183
(Q1 47, Q2 60, Q3 31, Q4 45) -
of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2012 Not fully provided
(Q1 Unknown, Q2 Unknown, Q3 46, Q4 66)
Restructured Mortgages:
Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of Q4 2013 21,777 (Q3 2013 21,607) [Change in period: +170 or +0.8%]
- of which are not in arrears 13,070 or 60.0% (Q3 2013 13,162 or 60.9%) [Change in period: -92 or -0.7%]
So we can see:
-
Arrears remained flat at 21.1% for Q3 2013 and 21.1% Q4 2013, despite a fall of -472 cases.
-
30,706 (21.1% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 21,777 (15.0% of all BTLs) restructured =
52,483 or 36.1% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (compared to 52,785 or 35.7% in Q3 2013) -
The arrears cases over 90 days (30,706) which is 21.1% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 283 in the 12 months from Q1 2013 and Q4 2013 = 0.92%
And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.
BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q1 2012 and Q4 2013 was 100 or just 0.33%, meaning
only 1 in 300 residential mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.
This despite there being 8,092 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 12,218 over 2 years or more in arrears
To re-calculate something from an old thread
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=43136&p=599721&hilit=arrears#p599721
In round figures.
No. of households in the state (CSO 04/04/13) 1,658,243
Residential mortgages in arrears of more than 180 days : 81,201
BTL mortgages in arrears of more than 180 days : 26,340
(81201 + 26340)/1658243 = 0.065
I.e. 6.5% of housing stock is not currently paying mortgage
So we have a factor for a rough estimate of mortgages in any area gone past 180 days.
E.g.
South Dublin - 90,148 x 0.065 = 5,859
Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown - Private Households (Number) 75,953 x 0.065 = 4,937
Monaghan - 21316 x 0.065 = 1,385
For reference Daft has 2,388 properties listed for sale today in Co.Dublin.
That’s a lot of possible repossessions, trade downs, firesales etc.
I.e. Until this mortgage crisis is sorted, however it happens, it’s a bit early to be talking about any bottom.
Notes:
CSO households table here
Suppose all residents stay where they are the BTLs still account for 1.6% of potential repos.
Correct me if I’m wrong please.
Actually, I’m not technically correct as I left out the empty houses.
1658243 + 289451 empties = 1947694
180 days (81201 + 26340) = 107541
107541 / 1947694 = 0.055
I.e. 5.5% of housing stock (occupied and empty) is mortgaged and arrears greater than 180 days
But now you have to somehow include empties if calculating for your area but probably doesn’t change the result much.
That’s insanely small repo figure, considering the scale of crisis we are in! This government is really taking advantage of the large group of society who are not the home owners. Just look at house price and rents increases in Dublin over the last year - all carefully planned by VIs and the government. And we are the ones who have to foot the bill through higher taxation for those who doesn’t pay a cent on their BTL mortgages and pockets all the rental income. This is truly outrageous if you ask me!
I’m going now to write a letter to my TD and tell him that there is a large group of people who will not vote for FG if they don’t change their “no repo under no circumstances,even for BTLs” policy.
+1
I’ve started that letter loads of times and never sent it. This time I will.
Are those numbers correct?
Well, I wrote a rant to Michael Noonan. Not expecting a big reaction.