BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions


#41

All well and good, and I intend to do the same myself, but who does one imply will get my vote if they don’t change their policy? Is there any politician/party out there actually pointing out how badly rigged the game is, and making noises about changing it?


#42

I think letters are worthwhile but not “rants”

Surely the approach is to empathise with those in difficulty but point out that lack of movement on “hopeless cases” is stalling the market, does nothing for the bansk balance sheets (unless we can get a Deloren to 2006) and hurts competitiveness


#43

A spoiled vote (0) is worth less to him than a vote for him (0 vs +1).
Obviously, a vote for a close competitor (-1) makes the impact of losing your vote even greater (-1 vs +1)


#44

Did all that, pointed out the lack of spending, saving like mad, accommodation costs sucking away too much of everyone’s income, lack of competitiveness…
Finished by asking him what his plan is, or if he has one.
I hope he replies, I kept it clean.


#45

This is one I’d like to hear

Unfortunately I’m guessing its hide under a bunch of coats, Homer Simpson style


#46

well even Stephen Donnelly (the great ginger hope ) is banging the drum for those who feel they should be entitled to buy back their own mortgage at a discount - in other words cherrypick - and leave the rest of the country pick up the cost of the really stinky parts of the loan book - “13000 families thrown to the wolves”! XX

stephendonnelly.ie/ibrc-liquidat … he-wolves/

stephendonnelly.ie/an-outrageous … stupidity/

so, arguable the smartest, best educated Independent is on the same page as Eilis O’Hanlon in the Sunday Independent


#47

Not mad on him - he’s well spoken but a lot of what he says is pure guff (allbeit in prefect grammar).


#48

If you’re going to be a politician, you’ve got to be able to get re-elected. Otherwise you’re not going to be a politician. They all need an angle, and independents need an angle more than those in parties. Socialists/community activist types in poorer urban areas have a relatively straight forward career path laid out of themselves. Piss and moan in the Dáil without any hope of implementing a policy and carry out grunt work on the ground. Beyond these areas there isn’t the homogenous constituency profile that allows for independents to get elected without latching onto a campaign that is in virtually without exception wrong. Hard core parish pumpery of the Healy Rae’s, Ming’s turf, a local hospital generously paid for by non-locals that needs saving, or in this case Donnelly’s ‘have your neighbours pick up the tab for your mortgage’ schemes. Politically it makes sense what he is at, but as he’s an independent, as sure as night follows day, it is a crock of sh1t.


#49

Stephen Donnelly has been at this for a long time. More than a year ago on Today with Pat Kenny (when it was still on RTE) he managed to make the argument that BOI forgiving mortgages would not cost the taxpayer anything because BOI is privately owned and then, two minutes later, argue that capital shortfalls arising if BOI was unable to rollover debt would have to be picked up by the taxpayer because of an implicit guarantee without acknowledging or being called on the contradiction. He also made the statement that writing down mortgage debt was what it took to ‘fix’ Iceland so we had no option but to do it here. No mention of the fact that Iceland also defaulted on external bank debt, underwent a major currency devaluation and implemented capital controls.


#50

**BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q1 2014 figures **

(Note 1: Analysis below includes figures restated by Central Bank for previous quarter)
(Note 2: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&p=687306#p687306)

Report Link
centralbank.ie/polstats/stat … istics.pdf

Outstanding:
Total BTL mortgage loan accounts outstanding - at end of Q1 2014 144,686 (Q4 2013 145,528) [Change in period: -842 or -0.6%]

Arrears:
Total BTL mortgage arrears cases outstanding - at end of Q1 2014 39,361 (Q4 2013 39,250) [Change in period: +111 or +0.3%]
which are:

  • In arrears up to 90 days 8,313 (Q4 2013 8,544) [Change in period: -231 or -2.7%]
  • In arrears 91 to 180 days 3,887 (Q4 2013 4,366) [Change in period: -479 or -11.0%]
  • In arrears over 180 days 27,161 (Q4 2013 26,340) [Change in period: +821 or +3.1%]
    of which
  • In arrears 181 to 360 days 5,900 (Q4 2013 6,030) [Change in period: -130 or -2.2%]
  • In arrears 361 to 720 days 7,979 (Q4 2013 8,092) [Change in period: -113 or -1.4%]
  • In arrears over 720 days 13,282 (Q4 2013 12,218) [Change in period: +1,064 or +8.7%]

Total BTL arrears cases over 90 days outstanding 31,048 (Q4 2013 30,706) [Change in period: +342 or +1.1%]
% of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days 21.5% (Q4 2013 21.1%) [Change in period: +0.4%]

Repossessions:
BTL properties in possession - at end of Q1 2014 568 (Q4 2013 502) [Change in period: +66 or +13.1%]

  • of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2014 to date 21
    (Q1 21)

  • of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2013 100
    (Q1 30, Q2 15, Q3 31, Q4 24)

  • of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2012 Not fully provided
    (Q1 Unknown, Q2 Unknown, Q3 28, Q4 22)

  • of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2014 to date 52
    (Q1 52)

  • of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2013 183
    (Q1 47, Q2 60, Q3 31, Q4 45)

  • of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2012 Not fully provided
    (Q1 Unknown, Q2 Unknown, Q3 46, Q4 66)

Restructured Mortgages:
Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of Q1 2014 23,037 (Q4 2013 21,777) [Change in period: +1,260 or +5.8%]

  • of which are not in arrears 13,903 or 60.4% (Q4 2013 13,070 or 60.0%) [Change in period: +833 or +6.4%]

So we can see:

  1. Arrears increased from 21.1% for Q4 2013 to 21.5% Q1 2014, despite rise of +342 cases.

  2. 31,048 (21.5% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 23,037 (15.9% of all BTLs) restructured =
    54,085 or 37.4% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (compared to 52,483 or 36.1% in Q4 2013)

  3. The arrears cases over 90 days (31,048) which is 21.5% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 279 in the 12 months from Q2 2013 and Q1 2014 = 0.9%

And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.

BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q2 2013 and Q1 2014 was 91 or just 0.29%, meaning
only 1 in 345 residential mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.

This despite there being 7,979 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 13,282 over 2 years or more in arrears


#51

Thank you theJackal for your continuing contributions to the arrears threads and topic in general.


#52

I think this is faulty data, maybe not drastically. What is their definition of “in possession” - by the bank, by a receiver?
Do Corporate owned residential investment properties get included in the total investment properties number of 145,000?


#53

David Hall just given another infomercial on RTE TV News. As always, treated as if he represents a bona fide charity. No hard questions asked…


#54

Hall is the ONLY commentator I heard in the radio/tv today

You’d swear someone out there didn’t want balance XX


#55

Ireland: BTL mortgage arrears rise to 40,000 - a State protected group? - -> finfacts-premium.com/free/ir … cted-group


#56

Just saw a sane man on the news.
He suggested higher stamp duty for investors.
Then he said: “high prices baaaad”.
Did I just dream that?


#57

Good article, thanks! Worrying situation.


#58

I just posted this in ‘The Madness is Returning’ thread

*Wow…scare piece just there on the RTE 9pm news on the latest arrears figures.
They moved on to house prices, shortage of tradesmen, rising asking prices and rising demand.

They spoke to Frank Quinn of Blackrock Higher Ed Inst (or something like that) who they said called the bubble in 2003. He effectively said we’re currently in another one and need to get investors out of the market through higher stamp duty or the like, a la Bacon recommendations from 1998.
Will that happen asked the rte reporter…prob not said Frank, as the Govt and a lot of people think rising house rices are a good thing.
And are they asked rte…NO said Frank.

Is the tide starting to turn in the media???*


#59

I saw it too. Mass hallucination?


#60

Mass wishful thinking?
Would it be weird if I sent him a thank you card. :open_mouth: