BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions


#61

**BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q2 2014 figures **

(Note 1: Analysis below includes any figures restated by Central Bank for previous quarter)
(Note 2: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&p=687306#p687306)

Report Link
centralbank.ie/polstats/stat … istics.pdf

Outstanding:
Total BTL mortgage loan accounts outstanding - at end of Q2 2014 144,187 (Q1 2013 144,686) [Change in period: -499 or -0.3%]

Arrears:
Total BTL mortgage arrears cases outstanding - at end of Q2 2014 39,669 (Q1 2013 39,361) [Change in period: +308 or +0.8%]
which are:

  • In arrears up to 90 days 7,920 (Q1 2014 8,313) [Change in period: -393 or -4.7%]
  • In arrears 91 to 180 days 3,666 (Q1 2014 3,887) [Change in period: -221 or -5.7%]
  • In arrears over 180 days 28,083 (Q1 2014 27,161) [Change in period: +922 or +3.4%]
    of which
  • In arrears 181 to 360 days 5,531 (Q1 2014 5,900) [Change in period: -369 or -6.3%]
  • In arrears 361 to 720 days 8,016 (Q1 2014 7,979) [Change in period: +37 or +0.5%]
  • In arrears over 720 days 14,536 (Q1 2014 13,282) [Change in period: +1,254 or +9.4%]

Total BTL arrears cases over 90 days outstanding 31,749 (Q1 2014 31,048) [Change in period: +701 or +2.3%]
% of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days 22.0% (Q1 2014 21.5%) [Change in period: +0.5%]

Repossessions:
BTL properties in possession - at end of Q2 2014 611 (Q1 2013 568) [Change in period: +43 or +7.6%]

  • of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2014 to date 44
    (Q1 21, Q2 23)

  • of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2013 100
    (Q1 30, Q2 15, Q3 31, Q4 24)

  • of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2012 Not fully provided
    (Q1 Unknown, Q2 Unknown, Q3 28, Q4 22)

  • of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2014 to date 126
    (Q1 52, Q2 74)

  • of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2013 183
    (Q1 47, Q2 60, Q3 31, Q4 45)

  • of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2012 Not fully provided
    (Q1 Unknown, Q2 Unknown, Q3 46, Q4 66)

Restructured Mortgages:
Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of Q2 2014 23,790 (Q1 2013 23,037) [Change in period: +753 or +3.3%]

  • of which are not in arrears 14,401 or 60.5% (Q1 2014 13,903 or 60.4%) [Change in period: +498 or +3.6%]

So we can see:

  1. Arrears increased from 21.5% for Q1 2014 to 22.0% Q2 2014.

  2. 31,749 (22.0% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 23,790 (16.5% of all BTLs) restructured =
    55,539 or 38.5% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (compared to 54,085 or 37.4% in Q1 2014)

  3. The arrears cases over 90 days (31,749) which is 22.0% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 301 in the 12 months from Q3 2013 and Q2 2014 = 0.95%

And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.

BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q3 2013 and Q2 2014 was 99 or just 0.31%, meaning
only 1 in 322 residential mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.

This despite there being 8,016 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 14,536 over 2 years or more in arrears


#62

I did some further analysis of the figures

Q2 2014 is the worst quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

  • Total Arrears €000 @ 1,617,032
  • over 180 days, Number @ 28,083
  • over 180 days, Balance €000 @ 8,088,426
  • over 180 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,547,095
  • over 720 days, Number @ 14,536
  • over 720 days, Balance €000 @ 4,545,881
  • over 720 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,174,326
  • Total Arrears Cases over 90 days outstanding, Number @ 31,749
  • Total Arrears Cases over 90 days outstanding, Balance €000 @ 8,937,657
  • Total Arrears Cases over 90 days outstanding, Arrears €000 @ 1,581,771
  • % of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days, Number @ 22.0%
  • % of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days, Balance €000 @ 30.7%

Q2 2014 is the best quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

  • Residential properties in possession - at end of quarter, Number @ 611
  • Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Number @ 23,790
  • Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Balance €000 @ 6,112,369
  • Total restructured, not in arrears, Number @ 14,401
  • Total restructured, not in arrears, Balance €000 @ 3,605,095

#63

This might be a viable strategy if the problem was just house purchase prices. There is a simultaneous strangulation of supply of both rental property and houses for sale, particularly in Dublin which is the subject of most discussions about a bubble. It’s this strangulation of supply that needs to be addressed because it seems to exist very much with state support through NAMA and the financial institutions that benefit from state / ECB sponsored life support. It’s long past time to start clearing the septic loans, repossess and dispose of any assets secured on them and just write down the bad debt where there’s not the means to repay it once the security is repossessed.
A higher stamp duty on investors right now would be a barrier to resolving supply issues with rental property right now, it could even be seen as additional protection for incumbent landlords. Perhaps a more appropriate tax to resolve the rental issue would be a tax on unoccupied residential property, linked to the PRTB recorded average rent for the area and property type, tax at the rate of 10% of the annual rent, prorated for occupancy levels as recorded by PRTB registered tenancies, with a month grace between tenancies might be worth considering.


#64

**BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q3 2014 figures **

(Note 1: Analysis below includes any figures restated by Central Bank for previous quarter)
(Note 2: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&p=687306#p687306)

Report Link
centralbank.ie/polstats/stat … istics.pdf

Outstanding:
Total BTL mortgage loan accounts outstanding - at end of Q3 2014 143,354 (Q2 2013 144,187) [Change in period: -833 or -0.6]

Arrears:
Total BTL mortgage arrears cases outstanding - at end of Q3 2014 38,463 (Q2 2013 39,669) [Change in period: -1,206 or -3.0%]
which are:

  • In arrears up to 90 days 6,844 (Q2 2014 7,920) [Change in period: -1,076 or -13.6%]
  • In arrears 91 to 180 days 3,339 (Q2 2014 3,666) [Change in period: -327 or -8.9]
  • In arrears over 180 days 28,280 (Q2 2014 28,083) [Change in period: +197 or +0.7%]
    of which
  • In arrears 181 to 360 days 5,064 (Q2 2014 5,531) [Change in period: -467 or -8.4%]
  • In arrears 361 to 720 days 7,781 (Q2 2014 8,016) [Change in period: -235 or -2.9%]
  • In arrears over 720 days 15,435 (Q2 2014 14,536) [Change in period: +899 or +6.2%]

Total BTL arrears cases over 90 days outstanding 31,619 (Q2 2014 31,749) [Change in period: -130 or -0.4%]
% of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days 22.1% (Q2 2014 22.0%) [Change in period: +0.1%]

Repossessions:
BTL properties in possession - at end of Q3 2014 634 (Q2 2013 611) [Change in period: +23 or +3.8%]

  • of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2014 to date 57
    (Q1 21, Q2 23, Q3 13)

  • of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2013 100
    (Q1 30, Q2 15, Q3 31, Q4 24)

  • of which BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2012 Not fully provided
    (Q1 Unknown, Q2 Unknown, Q3 28, Q4 22)

  • of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2014 to date 196
    (Q1 52, Q2 74, Q3 70)

  • of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2013 183
    (Q1 47, Q2 60, Q3 31, Q4 45)

  • of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2012 Not fully provided
    (Q1 Unknown, Q2 Unknown, Q3 46, Q4 66)

Restructured Mortgages:
Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of Q3 2014 24,942 (Q2 2013 23,790) [Change in period: +1,152 or +4.8%]

  • of which are not in arrears 15,499 or 62.1% (Q2 2014 14,401 or 60.5% [Change in period: +1,098 or +7.6%]

So we can see:

  1. Arrears increased from 22.0% for Q2 2014 to 22.1% Q3 2014.

  2. 31,619 (22.1% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 24,942 (17.4% of all BTLs) restructured =
    56,561 or 39.5% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (compared to 55,539 or 38.5% in Q2 2014)

  3. The arrears cases over 90 days (31,619) which is 22.1% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 332 in the 12 months from Q4 2013 and Q3 2014 = 1.05%

And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.

BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q4 2013 and Q3 2014 was 81 or just 0.26%, meaning
only 1 in 400 residential mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.

This despite there being 7,781 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 15,435 over 2 years or more in arrears


#65

I did some further analysis of the figures

Q3 2014 is the worst quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

  • Total Arrears €000 @ 1,699,106
  • over 180 days, Number @ 28,280
  • over 180 days, Balance €000 @ 8,121,214
  • over 180 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,635,252
  • over 720 days, Number @ 15,435
  • over 720 days, Balance €000 @ 4,791,702
  • over 720 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,275,660
  • Total Arrears Cases over 90 days outstanding, Arrears €000 @ 1,669,738
  • % of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days, Number @ 22.1%
  • % of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days, Balance €000 @ 30.8%

Q2 2014 is the best quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

  • Residential properties in possession - at end of quarter, Number @ 634
  • Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Number @ 24,942
  • Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Balance €000 @ 6,336,893
  • Total restructured, not in arrears, Number @ 15,499
  • Total restructured, not in arrears, Balance €000 @ 3,828,530

#66

€2,910,912,000 in arrears, which will never, ever be repayed; & a balance of ~€13 Billion, that would probably have to take a 50% write down to get sold.

I need to go lie down, & then start thinking about emigrating again :frowning:


#67

Pretty much every western nation is massively in debt, explicitly (banks) and implicitly (public pensions). Even smaller countries who base their economies on attracting investment companies to locate there will have trouble because they invest in other western nations with debt problems.

Its very hard to emigrate away from it all. The only position I’ve ever come across that might get you away was an accounting job on the solomon islands. The position was based on having attracted a company to locate their making investments in Australia, but the rest of the Island was very much pacific island made up of fishermen and farmers, so you could make a life for yourself away from all the western debt, based on a decent wage in a low wage country. Not for me though.


#68

Some nuggets from today’s radio on the subject of solving homelessness:

Fergus Finlay on SO’R this morning - “Landlords in difficulty need a mortgage holiday for say, 2 years”
Catherine Murphy TD on Matt Cooper this evening - “Banks need to stop repossessing BTL’s and leave them be, until new housing is built and comes on to the market”


#69

:angry:

Just like you’d imagine that someone, somewhere in the media would point out how 60k+ houses in unrecoverable arrears, if repossessed & resold, might, just possibly, help out with the FTB’s

but no; the script hasn’t changed since 2005 !

I made the mistake of looking at the Indo web page today, & it’s the same shit from a decade ago :sick:


#70

independent.ie/irish-news/co … 15947.html

More background on the same story:

independent.ie/irish-news/co … 15450.html


#71

m.independent.ie/business/person … 11414.html

Interesting details on repossession proceedings, sticking to the facts. I particularly enjoyed the monthly breakdown figures for October, November and “Christmas month”.

I feel a trick was missed by referring to q4 when Christmas quarter would have been more appropriate. Perhaps reports could include details such as “mr & mrs x” drew down €xmillion Euro during QEaster, spent the money during Qschool holidays and have not paid a cent since Christmas month 2007.


#72

I posted that story on the residential arrears thread yesterday but hadn’t twigged the reference to Christmas month. :laughing:

I can only imagine the extra strain that’d be caused during mother-in-laws birthday month.


#73

**BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q4 2014 figures **

(Note 1: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&start=2880)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link
centralbank.ie/polstats/stat … tistics.pd

Arrears

Repossessions

Restructures

Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began

Conclusions

  1. Arrears went from 31,619 Q3 2014 (22.1%) to 29,224 Q4 2014 (20.7%), a fall of -2,395 or -7.6%

  2. 29,224 (20.7% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 25,334 (18.0% of all BTLs) restructured =
    54,558 or 38.7% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (down from 56,561 or 39.5% in Q3 2014)

  3. The arrears cases over 90 days (29,224) which is 20.7% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 460 properties in the 12 months from Q1 2014 and Q4 2014 = 1.57%

And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.

BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q1 2014 and Q4 2014 was 170 or just 0.58%, meaning
only 1 in 172 BTL mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.

This despite there being 6,815 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 15,386 over 2 years or more in arrears


#74

I did some further analysis of the figures

Q4 2014 is the worst quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

  • Total Arrears €000 @ 1,718,839
  • over 180 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,658,823
  • over 720 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,335,763
  • Total Arrears Cases over 90 days outstanding, Arrears €000 @ 1,688,817

Q4 2014 is the best quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

  • Residential properties in possession - at end of quarter, Number @ 635
  • Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Number @ x25,334
  • Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Balance €000 @ 6,353,612
  • Total restructured, not in arrears, Number @ 16,511
  • Total restructured, not in arrears, Balance €000 @ 4,002,098

#75

**BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q1 2015 figures **

(Note 1: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&start=2880)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link
centralbank.ie/press-area/pr … 12015.aspx

Arrears

Repossessions

Restructures

https://i.imgur.com/tptctHo.png
Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began

Conclusions

  1. Arrears went from 29,224 Q4 2014 (20.7%) to 27,492 Q1 2015 (19.7%), a fall of -1,732 or -5.9%

  2. 27,492 (19.7% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 25,676 (18.4% of all BTLs) restructured =
    53,168 or 38.2% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (down from 54,558 or 38.7% in Q4 2014)

  3. The arrears cases over 90 days (27,492) which is 19.7% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 593 properties in the 12 months from Q2 2014 and Q1 2015 = 2.16%

And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.

BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q2 2014 and Q1 2015 was 272 or just 0.99%, meaning
only 1 in 101 BTL mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.

This despite there being 6,160 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 15,361 over 2 years or more in arrears


#76

I did some further analysis of the figures

Q1 2015 is the worst quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

  • Total Arrears €000 @ 1,737,866
  • over 180 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,685,872
  • over 720 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,401,579
  • Total Arrears Cases over 90 days outstanding, Arrears €000 @ 1,711,050

Q1 2015 is the best quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

  • Residential properties in possession - at end of quarter, Number @ 654
  • Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Number @ 25676
  • Total restructured, not in arrears, Number @ 17,484
  • Total restructured, not in arrears, Balance €000 @ 4,200,066

#77

**BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q2 2015 figures **

(Note 1: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&start=2880)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link
centralbank.ie/press-area/pr … 22015.aspx

Arrears

Repossessions

Restructures

Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began

Conclusions

  1. Arrears went from 27,492 Q1 2015 (19.7%) to 26,057 Q2 2015 (19.0%), a fall of -1,435 or -5.2%

  2. 26,057 (19.0% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 26,004 (18.9% of all BTLs) restructured =
    52,061 or 37.9% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (down 53,025 or 38.1% in Q1 2015)

  3. The arrears cases over 90 days (26,057) which is 19.0% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 730 properties in the 12 months from Q3 2014 and Q2 2015 = 2.8%

And 56% of these were voluntarily surrendered.

BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q3 2014 and Q2 2015 was 410 or just 1.57%, meaning
only 1 in 64 BTL mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.

This despite there being 5,485 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 15,276 over 2 years or more in arrears


#78

I did some further analysis of the figures

Q2 2015 is the worst quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

  • over 720 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,430,793

Q2 2015 is the best quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

  • Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Number @ 26,004
  • Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Balance €000 @ 6,502,964
  • Total restructured, not in arrears, Number @ 18,268
  • Total restructured, not in arrears, Balance €000 @ 4,362,842

Likethe Residential figures, the BTL repos by Court Order are far high than prior years


#79

Interesting to see 82% are classed as meeting terms of arrangement but only 70.25% are classed as not in arrears. This suggests that 14% (12% of the 82%) of those classed as meeting their terms are in arrears.

Given the increase in “% not in arrears” between Q1 2015 (68.4%) & Q2 2015 (70.25%) that some of the arrangements, provided for the paydown of outstanding arrears rather than capitalization of the arrears.

Does this reduction suggests some people are overpaying their “sustainable” rate, no?


#80

**BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q3 2015 figures **

(Note 1: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&start=2880)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link
centralbank.ie/polstats/stat … istics.pdf

Arrears

Repossessions

Restructures

Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began

Conclusions

  1. Arrears went from 26,071 Q2 2015 (19.0%) to 24,890 Q3 2015 (18.1%), a fall of -1,181 or -4.5%

  2. 24,890 (18.1% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 26,198 (19.0% of all BTLs) restructured =
    51,088 or 37.1% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (down 51,914 or 37.8% in Q2 2015)

  3. The arrears cases over 90 days (26,071) which is 18.1% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 847 properties in the 12 months from Q4 2014 and Q3 2015 = 3.4%

And 38% of these were voluntarily surrendered.

BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q4 2014 and Q3 2015 was 525 or just 2.11%, meaning
only 1 in 47 BTL mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.

This despite there being 4,786 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 15,275 over 2 years or more in arrears