By Election - Tallies suggest race between McEntee & Byrne

Back to our obsession with civil war parties:

irishtimes.com/news/politics … -1.1341686

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Genuinely depressing.

Not at all surprising though?

Opinion polls and betting suggested it was a 2 horse race

Or, indeed, people would rather whinge about the outcome rather than participate in changing it.

Politics really is showbusiness for ugly people.

It’s not that history that worries me. The strong early performance at the polls of the populist direct democracy party is what fills me with dread for what the future may hold. Answers with mass appeal. Xenophobic answers. The tom tom beat of latterday tribalism. The present day ff/fg dichotomy while fairly depressing, at least mitigates to an extent the tyranny that the Irish people en masse would be capable of. Call me cynical but I’ve been watching them closely this last ten years or so. It’s not the politicians that bother me. Certainly the media play a large part in the mass political consciousness. But any further tendency towards a belief in the greater wisdom of large numbers of people in the face of what our democracy has produced this last ten years, is to be feared.

In my experience most people go for what looks like the easy answer

If that doesn’t work they look for the next false messiah preaching even easier answers

Rinse, repeat,

A sign of things to come in the General Election? Labour fucked.

and have tried to fudge every decision that is needed to fix the mess

I’m actually surprised Labour did so badly. I used to know Eoin Holmes quite well when he was in the music business (He was PR for various record companies around town including Sony in the 1990’s. It must be 20 years ago when I had a beer with him one night, along with two young lads from a Manchester band - Noel and Liam!) A bit of a charmer and a good talker - I thought he might have scored a strong personal vote, despite Labour’s woes. I wonder did all that ideological box-ticking they’ve been up to recently have an effect (The “hating” on private schools, and all the gay marriage stuff etc.)

Noel Ahern & Liam Lawlor? Were they organising a whip-around?

breakingnews.ie/ireland/mcen … 89481.html

Ah yes keeping it in the family

rte.ie/news/2013/0328/378747 … -election/

Fine Gael’s Helen McEntee on 39%
Fianna Fáil’s Thomas Byrne on 33%
Sinn Féin’s Darren O’Rourke on 13%,
Direct Democracy Ireland’s Ben Gilroy 6%
Labour’s Eoin Holmes on 4%

DDI getting above labour is a disaster for Labour.

At first glance I was surprised that over 30% of the electorate thought that that voting FF was a good idea.
However, considering that the turnout was about 38% with the quota is expected to be around 12000, (with 24,000 votes cast), this leaves about 7000-8000 died in the wool FFers.

Has this changed from the last GE? well last time out he got 5,715 first pref votes.
This time out he gained just over 2000 votes, which is roughly what his running partner got last time out Nick Killian (2,669).
In GE2011 Thomas Byrne’s total after Killian was eliminated was 7,354 and he finished with 8,173.
Thomas Byrne’s total in by-election 2013 is likely to be about 8000 votes.
So FF have not changed since GE2011.

Considering Labour voters did not bother to show up it is not a great outcome for Labour, SF or FF.

**
Edit - numbers incorrect**

There is a lot of good farmland in Meath.
The Labour party would want to round up all the farmers, drive them off the land and into the city.

Utterly depressing - at 26 I can’t believe how she is qualified to handle the demands of public office.

Wait a minute - this is Ireland - our public officers are expected to fill their boots, say whatever their told to by whips/advisors and inconvenience their junkets/funeral attending/general hob-nobbing with the few days a year the Dáil actually sits.

I reckon she’s got what it takes…

interesting how the family dynasty works in Irish politics

here is the GE 2011 result
electionsireland.org/result.cfm? … 1&cons=731

FG have held their vote. Fianna Fail have gained at expense of a Labour collapse.
Smaller party in coalition gets hammered in the polls. Labour will have to orchestrate a withdrawal from Government on a chosen issue to avoid being wiped out in the next GE.

Ah but her surname is the same as a former TD

In any case no matter how old she was or how much experience she had all she’d do is vote whatever way the Whip instructed her to

I was thinking about this over lunch

Will they simply hang on in for the full 5 years of the gravy train or try salvage something for the next GE i.e. a full term on the gravy train is worth 2 in the bush

Considering that FF only ran 1 candidate that have not really gained.
Sum the total from the 2 candidates in GE2011 and you get close to the by-election total in 2013.

This is how FF work, and how they became such a powerful machine in getting their man over the line.

The collaspe in the Labour vote is in large part due to Croke Park II. A very large proportion of Labour voters and indeed members are public servants. The low turn out indicates that they simply decided to stay at home.