Call the bottom!

Bottom

  • Now (Jul 2010)
  • 6 months
  • 1 year
  • 18 months
  • 2+ years
  • 3+ years
  • 5+ years

0 voters

There has been a good history of predictions on this site but the latest trend seems to be to rubbish everyone’s claim of this is the bottom or that is the bottom (of the housing market!),
Whats the concensus?
Is anyone prepared to actually predict the bottom?

2Pack predicted October 2011, as I recall.

viewtopic.php?p=41216#p41216

I’m only calling the bottom for my part of Ireland i.e. the west and northwest. This will be 5 years plus away as there is absolutely no fundemental reason to stop the ongoing fall in house prices plus a degree of oversupply which would not be addressed by bulldozing every ghost estate in Longford, Roscommon and Leitrim.

3 years+ and I’m an optimist.

There is no bottom. Housing will reach a permanently low plateau :laughing:

Erm, I’d go with Q3/Q4 next year too.

We’ll probably know we’re getting to it because in Q1 there will be a slight rise as the spring selling season reasserts itself. So if not next year, then the year after.

Not that we will have a price index to judge from.

Of course, it will depend somewhat on the class of credit available, which is going to be largely dependent on Mr. Elderfield’s reforms of credit and debt limits.

Property always goes down! :smiley:

Being optimistic I’ll say June 2014. Eight years after the bubble burst in June 2006.

I went for the 5+ years.
It has taken 4 years to fall 50%, the next 50% fall will be much longer drawn out.

It’s also important to note that rents are also falling, thus the point at which it makes financial sense to buy (instead of rent) gets further and further away.

Perhaps I am sticking my neck out, but I believe rents have to rise for a sustained period of time before people look to buying as an alternative.
Rents also need to keep rising to entice investors back into the market.

**But most of all, 4 years on, 50% fall … and yet we still havent even started selling the NAMA properties.

Consider you want to buy a property. It’s at the bottom of a cliff.
The cliff top is about to give way - you know this because there is a massive amount of TNT strapped to it.
Although the person with their finger on the button won’t tell you exactly when it will be pressed, you know it has to happen soon.

Now this person keeps telling you to buy nonetheless.
They try their best to convince you that the demolition will be ‘controlled’ and thus entirely avoid your property.
When you ask them how many times they have done this before, they answer ‘never … but we know what we’re doing’.

Your choice.

Property is now over the crest of a wave that began after WWII, there won’t be any bottom, just a downward trend (currency and inflation-adjusted) lasting the next forty to seventy years.
Only buy if you’ve seen the master bedroom and are happy that, barring accidents or disease, it’s the room that you’ll be dying in. :cry:

The Bottom…

I’ve been waiting, such a long time,
Looking out for you,
But you’re not here,
What’s another year?

I’m not sure where the optimisim is coming from. We haven’t even began to pay back the billions of debt this depression has caused.
Income tax increases are going to be an annual event now for the next decade.

The Bottom!

Oh, I see, it’s a poll. Optimistically 3+ years but I’m no expert.

Here’s a theory - since this site is full of, how can i put it, doommongers, (joke) I reckon the result of second in the poll will be a realistic and dare i say educated guess at where the bottom is.

That’s a theory alright…

But that is calculating prices to fall 100% :open_mouth:
I also think it will be years rather than months 'till we hit rock bottom but I think we will have the bulk of the drop over with in another 18months.

You’re taking the piss right? :laughing:

There’s a can of worms opened up!

I think he means 50% of the remaining 50% which is 25%. So the total fall will be 75%, if you know what I mean.

Nah just my warped way of thinking - there’s always extremists and right behind them are the realists

Summer 2014 to Summer 2015 and you can take that to the bank!!