CDS watch

Thought a thread that shows CDS levels would be interesting?
Allied 220
Bank 320
Nationwide 294
Ireland Inc 280

all 5y

Very interesting that now only AIB now has a lower rating than Ireland.

Makes a mockery of the state guarantee, its like a junk monoline insuring AAA bonds

after the lenihan crash…
6-12-24m 290
more than greece…

Anyone got any updates?

10y 280. Slight decline.

Slightly off topic, but is it possible for a retail investor to get access to CDS trades anywhere?

Dont know, but in the meantime… markit.com/information/news/ … y/cds.html

To educate and elucidate debate, see below the evolution of the CDS and the bund spread over the alst few years (10y cds euro and 10y bund spread)
Im sorry its ugly - not great at putting in tables.

Code 10year CDS Close 10y Spread over Bund BP
30/12/2005 3 -3.1
06/01/2006 3 -3.35
13/01/2006 5.69 -3.06
20/01/2006 5.69 -2.69
27/01/2006 3 -2.43
03/02/2006 4 -2.76
10/02/2006 3.5 -2.42
17/02/2006 3.25 -2.88
24/02/2006 3 -2.94
03/03/2006 2.97 -2.64
10/03/2006 3 -2.92
17/03/2006 3 -3.41
24/03/2006 4.1 -2.78
31/03/2006 15.909 -2.59
07/04/2006 4.1 -2.37
14/04/2006 3.316 -2.58
21/04/2006 4.13 -3.07
28/04/2006 3.38 -3.26
05/05/2006 3.56 -3.6
12/05/2006 14.282 -4.36
19/05/2006 3 -4.15
26/05/2006 3.67 -3.17
02/06/2006 2.57 -5.06
09/06/2006 3.38 -4.97
16/06/2006 2.75 -4.3
23/06/2006 3.79 -4.39
30/06/2006 4 -4.75
07/07/2006 3.13 -4.67
14/07/2006 3.06 -4.74
21/07/2006 3.1 -8.13
28/07/2006 3.56 -4.26
04/08/2006 3.4 -4.23
11/08/2006 3.44 -4.02
18/08/2006 2.75 -3.71
25/08/2006 3.88 -3.27
01/09/2006 2.75 -2.96
08/09/2006 3.19 -3.04
15/09/2006 3.4 -2.87
22/09/2006 3.5 -3.02
29/09/2006 3.31 -3.07
06/10/2006 3 -3.25
13/10/2006 3.5 -3.24
20/10/2006 3.5 -3.06
27/10/2006 2.75 -2.79
03/11/2006 3 -2.64
10/11/2006 9.269 -2.87
17/11/2006 10.281 -2.97
24/11/2006 9.991 -3.18
01/12/2006 3.5 -2.32
08/12/2006 2.69 -2.59
15/12/2006 2.8 -2.61
22/12/2006 11.409 -2.34
29/12/2006 19.553 -2.44
05/01/2007 12.263 -2.97
12/01/2007 11.019 -3.68
19/01/2007 11.537 -2.93
26/01/2007 11.463 -2.99
02/02/2007 10.575 -2.95
09/02/2007 10.785 -3.07
16/02/2007 10.608 -3.05
23/02/2007 10.98 -3.15
02/03/2007 16.032 -3.25
09/03/2007 17.589 -2.78
16/03/2007 20.105 -2.77
23/03/2007 19.558 -2.84
30/03/2007 19.404 -2.65
06/04/2007 20.991 -2.27
13/04/2007 17.105 -2.43
20/04/2007 2.5 -2.36
27/04/2007 14.234 -2.06
04/05/2007 3.1 -1.9
11/05/2007 13.604 -2.29
18/05/2007 2.694 -2.34
25/05/2007 12.928 -1.72
01/06/2007 12.757 -1.48
08/06/2007 13.404 -2.15
15/06/2007 15.848 -2.17
22/06/2007 3.8 -2.04
29/06/2007 3.2 -0.85
06/07/2007 3.2 0.15
13/07/2007 4.6 1.58
20/07/2007 5.1 2.12
27/07/2007 5.5 3.79
03/08/2007 5.5 4.75
10/08/2007 5.5 4.39
17/08/2007 8.8 3.63
24/08/2007 8 3.79
31/08/2007 7.3 3.64
07/09/2007 7.9 4.57
14/09/2007 7.9 4.95
21/09/2007 7.9 3.06
28/09/2007 9.5 3.34
05/10/2007 9.5 1.13
12/10/2007 9.8 1.59
19/10/2007 11.3 2.55
26/10/2007 10.8 2.54
02/11/2007 12.5 2.39
09/11/2007 13 3.33
16/11/2007 13 4.45
23/11/2007 15.3 6.7
30/11/2007 16.2 6.51
07/12/2007 19 16.75
14/12/2007 19.5 13.34
21/12/2007 19.4 12.25
28/12/2007 19.3 9.56
04/01/2008 22.9 12.05
11/01/2008 25.7 15.57
18/01/2008 28 14.72
25/01/2008 27 18.16
01/02/2008 27.2 17.88
08/02/2008 29.9 18.03
15/02/2008 29.2 19.27
22/02/2008 32.1 19.93
29/02/2008 32.4 20.91
07/03/2008 35.2 34.97
14/03/2008 38.7 36.51
21/03/2008 39.8 34.37
28/03/2008 36.7 33.24
04/04/2008 29.5 34.14
11/04/2008 32.7 33.72
18/04/2008 32.5 32.45
25/04/2008 29.2 28.03
02/05/2008 25.9 26.64
09/05/2008 26.1 28.69
16/05/2008 25.6 24.11
23/05/2008 26.5 23.43
30/05/2008 26 23.16
06/06/2008 25.3 26.84
13/06/2008 32.2 30.23
20/06/2008 32.5 28.22
27/06/2008 36.3 33.27
04/07/2008 37 29.87
11/07/2008 38 30.33
18/07/2008 37.8 29.57
25/07/2008 36.1 27.23
01/08/2008 36 28.73
08/08/2008 37 28.51
15/08/2008 37 29.83
22/08/2008 37 29.4
29/08/2008 37.3 31.88
05/09/2008 39.5 34.71
12/09/2008 39.8 34.81
19/09/2008 40.7 40.31
26/09/2008 40.5 39.54
03/10/2008 72.9 52.67
10/10/2008 79.2 58.71
17/10/2008 83.2 55.27
24/10/2008 128.8 69.6
31/10/2008 115.5 89.54
07/11/2008 113.5 88.2
14/11/2008 127.2 80.28
21/11/2008 192.5 86.3
28/11/2008 206.2 88.72
05/12/2008 236.3 112.16
12/12/2008 206.6 119.37
19/12/2008 179.7 127.27
26/12/2008 182 127.93
02/01/2009 185 124.04
09/01/2009 184.4 142.02
16/01/2009 248.4 178.13

Courtesy of irisheconomy.ie/?p=472#comment-503

5y 10y
Port 134/144 130/150
Ital 177/187 172/182
Gree 260/290 255/285
Spa 148/158 145/160
Irel 260/300 240/290
UK 140/150 137/147
Denk 109/119 108/120
Swe 110/125 115/130
Aust 145/155 145/145
Ger 56/66 56/66
Fran 63/73 64/74
Finl 55/65 57/67
Belg 115/135 113/133
Neth 105/125 105/120
Iceland 925/975 800/1000

Anyone else notice the chart on the 9 oclock news last night.
showing Irelands CDS rates and how they have escalated since the first bank gaurantee was annouced…
they even flashed up Greece on the chart and how we are second only to the greekies…
The newsreader sounded like they were crapping in their pants cos they hadnt a clue what they were talking about .
The comments sounded like they had been pinched direct from TPP
and the chart even looked like it had been taken form something posted by all you chart freaks …
pity RTE hadnt raised this back in August… when it doubled overnight

If motrose are goign to pinch their angles from TPP tey could at least give some credit or invite everyone onto Tubridy tonight…

Dear RTE,

Can I please have my ticket for PrimeTime when Tom Parlon is a panelist. I’m not really a big Tubridy fan.

conor_mc

In your face Europe…

The market is now implying that there is a 1 in 5 chance of Ireland defaulting over the next 5 years according to various sources.

Where on earth are you getting that from. 250bps on a 5 YR CDS is not a 1/5 chance. You need 20,000bps to be there.

In that case - the CDS market is not working too well!!!

Those guys are more optimistic than our VI guys ever were!!!

Not that much. You should be able to get a guide from spreads on corporate bonds.

For example, BB debt has an historical cumulative deault rate over 5 years of around 11%. For 10 years it is 20%.

If Irish debt is being priced at BB corporate, than that gives you a guide.

I’d suggest…

250bp is a 1/40 implied defauly prob but its an annual one, over the period of the contract. Soon we will be 1/33 and rising

Got it from here but yea now that I think of it, I was very wrong to believe it.

rte.ie/business/2009/0130/economy2.html