Central Bank concerned at rapid rise in house prices

In a review of risks to the Irish economy, the Central Bank noted that house price growth in Dublin is now higher than that recorded at the peak of the property bubble in 2006.

rte.ie/news/business/2014/12 … k-economy/

All the more reason why the new rules should come into effect immediately.

My first thought on reading the thread too

As has been discussed elsewhere I’ve taken the affordability Pepsi Challenge on several houses vs the same house in 2007 (but with lower taxes, MIR etc) and have often found them to be far less affordable today

The government won’t listen anyhow. They obviously don’t believe in downside risk

The rules are coming despite the bluster of our politicians. They would have to agree to what should be done instead for a start.

with a drop in oil prices, reflecting lower world and Chinese demand, this will presumably reflect lower world growth rates, and given Ireland’s position as a small open economy who has put a lot of faith in major multinationals, this will likely affect our growth rates too.

that can only lead to a downward spiral for Irish house price right?

Unless government continue to restrict supply through not allowing higher density units, and better infrastructure to bring more of the Leinster region into commuter distance of where the jobs are.

Not sure what you mean by reflect/reflecting. Low prices are a result of supply outstripping demand and will boost global growth and demand. It’s good news except for oil-rich states, holders of energy stocks etc.

Good to see the CBI fighting back with its own PR.

Indeed… is there any indication on when the CBI are likely to publish details of the final rules that they will implement? I would have expected that they should be deciding over the next few days…

Its a pretty damning indictment of government policy

a)excessive house price inflation
b)Manipulation of housing market
c)Failure to act on planning
d)Failure to aid construction industry (finance not available to complete units/ build required units)
e)Increase risk in financial system
f)Failure to provide political capital to sort of long term arrears(looks like CB would like more repossessions)
g)Give away budget when international economic environment worsens
h)Dependency of Multinationals
i)Ignoring risks to fragile economy

yeah, this is weird, in the Summer, when stocks swooned, the high Oil price was blamed (c. $110); now the same people are saying low oil prices are making stocks drop… Seems that anything which correlates with stocks dropping is immediately the cause, rather than stocks dropping because they’re dropping.

As I see it, low oil prices are in the interim a net positive (those who depend significantly on Oil nation spending may disagree); but over the longer term low prices will see less investment and pricing power swinging back to the large producing states.

BAU then

prices over corrected so…

i’ll get my coat :wink:

It’s alright, Fine Gael have a solution…

MORE CREDIT :smiling_imp:

I suspect the main target was the Department of Finance. The CB are basically calling the DOF idiots.

It really is depressing.

You are spot on with all those points - the economy is fragile and pretending everything is fine doesn’t address the fragility.

On g) - multinational dependency - this is a very very serious issue. Lip service has been paid over the last 10/15 years (i.e. quangos bleating on about “promoting an indigenous export-led economy”). Well? Where is this indigenous economy? It’s not happening - we are even more reliant on Google/Facebook/Twitter/etc. Tax haven rules are being tightened up in the USA, in Britain and in Europe. There is no strategy for addressing the multinational issue. Actually, there is - leave it to the next government.

The big concern with the low oil prices is that they are a symptom of low international demand for oil. This is caused by the weakness in the global economy (as well as continued high output). Many commodities such as minerals, dairy, ag commodities etc are suffering from the same lack of demand and this has caused a slump in almost commodity prices. The implications of low oil prices may appear positive to many however there are major downsides too. Shale oil production requires massive up front capital investment. If these producers are wiped out, there will be serious implications for banks and other holders of high yield debt. It could lead to an overall flight from riskier assets including property in emerging (and recovering) markets :open_mouth:

Amazing that the IT and the Journal aren’t even this story so far… The Indo has a very small piece on it while RTE have it as big news

Indeed and multi-national workers are seen as a cash-cow ripe for soaking through the personal tax system… while this is true of all workers, the multi-national policy, such as it is, is to get jobs with good salaries and then soak them (and now their DC pensions…).

The multinational doesn’t pay any tax - you have to get your tax from somewhere, so you milk the workers (SARP executives are exempt though)

SARP is a form of feudalism - if you’re a member of the Irish nobility, you get a 30% tax discount on your earnings (unlimited earnings) and are BIK exempt (i.e. BMWs, Mercs, etc.)

Eh, yeah, that’s what I said…

Well, is it a bubble? It’s not clear that it is, as any number of threads here attest. The CB document itself states that the very significant price rises (occurring for over two years now in Dublin) are due to lack of supply.

There is little evidence that this supply problem will be overcome (either due to deliberate efforts to constrain supply, the complexity of planning and related matters or degrees of political incompetence) to the extent necessary in the next, say, 2-3 years. A bubble 'popping ’ to my way of thinking would mean steep price falls in a shortish period. Do people genuinely feel that 2015 will see, say, a 15% price fall in Dublin? I just can’t see it.