But even though it was all Lehman’s fault house prices were inevitably
going to fall and have further to fall. So…not all Lehman’s fault then???
Anyhooo fear not, recovery will be sometime next year.
(phew, first time I’ve ever heard a prediction like that.)
Then the bad news:
The ECB has revised it’s forcasts for GDP shrinkage for the Eurozone.
Now expecting 5.1%. Apparently the previous predictions were too
optimistic.
The writer failed to see the Irony of sticking an optimistic
Irish Central Bank prediction into an article about how the ECB’s previous
predictions turned out to be too optimistic.
And sure while we’re at it, we’ll make the Irish Optimistic Prediction
the Headline, and stick the dose of reality at the bottom and hope
nobody reads that far.
Northern Rock. This happened the year before Lehmans. The weaknesses of the NR funding model could be found in Irish banks. The problems for Irish banks were well advanced by the time Lehmans happened. Why does John Hurley still have a job?
Initially I didn’t, but decided to edit out the colour.
I’m fed up with the scapegoating of Lehmans. Yes, it accelerated the demise but the outcome would have been the same (the Irish credit/property bubble had already burst and it was only a matter of time before international investors fled). The real red flag event was Northern Rock as Irish banks relied on interbank loans and securitisation for funds.
It’s important not to airbrush Northern Rock from the picture. Especially when FF post-NAMA (plus extended guarantee) are looking to restart the Northern Rock model.
Never mind post-NAMA, the state has turned into Northern Rock. We are borrowing huge amounts of money in commercial paper and treasury bills (short) and using them to recapitalise the banks, build infrastructure, pay salaries hoping for an upturn to pay them back (long).
This is a man who on at least 4 occasions that we know of predicted that a Soft Landing was the most likely outcome for Irish Property.
A man who said that the Irish Banking System was well placed to absorb the shocks of international economic woes.
A man who claimed in Nov 2006 that Irish houses were 14% overvalued, but that that didn’t mean prices would fall.
A man who now claims that house price falls were inevitable, and they will fall further.
I can only assume that he’s now working on the assumption that he’s wrong so often that if he predicts further falls
he’ll be wrong again and house prices will rise.
It’s time to get these leeches back onm the salaries they deserve in respect of their importance and competences. This is a head of a Central Bank without jurisdiction over the monetary policy and who failed miserably on the whatever precious few responsibilities he has left. He should be on around 70k maximum. What does a Central Bank without money do in the first place??
