Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists
Investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel.
“Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.”
It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point.
Almost one million investors lose £5.3bn in massive China Ponzi scam - -> telegraph.co.uk/finance/chin … -scam.html
Tomorrow could well be the craziest day ever seen in Asian markets (or at least since the late 90s currency crisis) following Shanghai’s reopening after a 10 day closure for the new year. There are dozens of issues at play, from overvalued equities, capital flight, a currency that doesn’t know if it needs to be up or down, the aforementioned property bubble , street violence in Hong Kong, bad loans coming due (I shudder to think of what horror stories are lurking in the dark corners of Chinese banks’ books) and they all seem to be coming to a head at the same time.
Zhou’s statement yesterday that all is essentially well could be his Comical Ali moment.
Shanghai Stock Exchange opening hours are 1am-7am GMT for anyone interested in seeing what happens.
1.35am – Shanghia Composite -2.60%, Shenzhen Composite -2.87%, Hang Seng +2.18%.
Chinese retail sales up over holiday period. Central bank says no reason for Yuan devaluation.
Rebound in mainland markets hotly anticipated.
rem - as I think I’ve said on this thread before - all the late comers watch USD/CNY … forget that, watch CNY/JPY, much better indicator of Chinese relative competitivity…
if you look at a monthly chart of that then it’s pretty obvious why the Yuan was raising in value too fast … investing.com/currencies/cny-jpy
the huge drop in USD/JPY i.e. Yen strength of the last couple of weeks has taken pressure of the Chinese to devalue further…
You can never underestimate the power of magical thinking. If you will the authorities to fix the problem so you don’t have to pay attention to risk, shure it’s bound to happen. The thing is, though, experience says that the authorities only step in after a large amount of money has been lost. It’s not that there isn’t moral hazard, it’s that the moral hazard is only for some… if you’re not in the ‘some’ camp, you’re screwed.
Currency pegs are the massive problem that really allow these things to go crazy then, eventually, blow up.
I mean a country with the size, wealth and opportunity of China … pegging its basic means of transaction to the US Dollar (or any other IOU) is moronic and really an anachronism.
The Great Chinese Crash with Robert Preston on BBC2 TV now fairly scary
Caught the end of that - very interesting but fairly scary allright
All kinds of wrong going on here. I’m beginning to think the degenerate takeaway owners you see in casinos at 5am are more reflective of the Chinese character than the supposedly solemn calculating communist party cadres thinking in terms of centuries we’ve been presented with.
Moody’s look like they’ve had a bad Chinese.
well, that’s my takeaway from this story…
Heat rises on China tycoon Ren Zhiqiang - Lucy Hornby in Beijing - -> ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e6c12c24 … 62ba3.html
Chinese Tycoon Criticizes Leader, and Wins Surprising Support - -> nytimes.com/2016/03/19/world … .html?_r=0
China detains 20 over online letter calling for Xi Jinping to resign - -> irishtimes.com/news/world/as … -1.2587024
China wants laid-off coal, steel workers retrained, relocated or retired early -> uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china- … KKCN0XD0PF
The fall of Xu Xiang - China’s hedge-fund king - -> irishexaminer.com/viewpoints … 93254.html
Where all the Carrolls “Irish” gift stores and mobile phone covers bling come from and a word about Ordos “the ghost city” too