What could we do if we effectively had a Civil War.
ie, malcontent Republicans with previous experience of waging a guerilla war recruit a poor and disillusioned population to focus their anger in a war against an IMF/ECB run administration.
There was a report from Latvia on Morning Ireland today on the after effects of the IMF intervention.
Having had rioting on the streets at the time of the intervention it was reported that people there now accept that they were living beyond their means and accept that tough measures have to be taken.
Unemployment is at 23% and the public sector have taken an average 25% pay cut although Doctors and teachers have had a cut of approx. 50% 58 schools were closed but didn’t say what percentage of the total that was.
They spoke to one woman whose wages have been cut 50% to about €325 a month IIRC she was getting all her food from her brother’s farm.
Of course the politicians have taken the smallest pay cut and the government has just been re-elected with an increased majority.
Go figure. Probably the scenario Biffo is hoping for…
I think something like 1/3 of teachers were sacked. Cops received the least cuts (note).The reason why the government was voted back in… as you said yourself… was because they knew they were living beyond their means and any political party that said otherwise were a no hoper.
Widespread civil unrest in Ireland? I think that’s unlikely. Small groups of the disgruntled, disaffected, malcontents and psychopaths getting together over a few beers and engaging in random acts of vandalism and crime? That’s something we have a history of, except that previously the perpetrators claimed a ‘higher’ motivation.
In reality, we’re just not the complaining type. If it did ‘kick off’ then people will just leave. Why stay in the country if there is a cohort smashing it up and burning it down?
With the destruction of wealth, the reduction in State services, increased taxation, high debt etc, all we have left are the threads of civil society. If they go, why stay?
So you must have missed that whole 1968-1998 business. Oh that was up the North so it does not count. The fact that most of it was originated down South should be of interest.
These people have not gone away and what is happening at the moment fits perfectly with their political narrative. As it gets closer to 2016 expect more ominous noises to emanate from the usual suspects. Add to that the fact we are heading for generational change in leadership and I see lots of possibilities for real mischief. The background to the Officals/Provos spit in the early '70s should be very instructive . History does repeat itself. This is after all the third time FF have destroyed the economy. Next time I expect a more Baader Meinhof approach by the Republicans if they decide a pursue a more “proactive” campaign.
And yet they keep their powder dry . Given the amount of arms the ’ movement ’ has or had and its numbers . Its kind of odd that thet never marched into the the Dail or mounted a Tet like offensive during their heyday . If not then , its highly unlikely now .
Of course they did not shit in their own nest. They knew the agreement. Dont cause trouble in the 26 and we will look the other way as to what you do in the 6. Look at the very forceful response by the authorities in the South whenever the other side forgot the terms of the agreement. Easy on the bank robberies and none of this kidnapping lark. Lock up a few of the foot soldiers to remind the commanders what could be done if necessary.
As I said 2016 is a very important date in the Republican narrative and the current very low key response of SF just reinforces my belief that they are playing a very long game. Do not underestimate just how dangerous these people could be. Ireland has a large pool of people who given the right circumstance could cause very serious social disruption and who have the means and organization to attempt a take-over of the state if events really spiraled out of control.
Unlikely as yet, but not impossible. But in a year or two when the full realization of what has been done by the Irish ruling class sinks in with the general population…Who knows what might happen.
Who ever thought the boom years would not end with a soft landing and the whole banking system would end up insolvent and bankrupting the country. Impossible and inconceivable they said…
I am not talking about a timeframe around the GFG . They were well armed and had good membership in the 80’s . they failed to move then . They may still have the arms but not the numbers . It is very difficult for a paramilitary movement to retain and train members during a long period of inactivity . Most drift off into criminality or ordinary employment .
The Republican movement has now been largly discredited due to the large number of spies and touts within their ranks . Even without that they were driven to peace talks due to the success of collusion .
If they did not move in the 80’s , when they were at their height , why would they move now ?
Well for a start the 80’s was a completely different world. Things were kind of hairy in the South during the early 80’s, H Block and all that, but the IRA knew that without the base in the South they were finished. Kind of like ETA in France.
The next few years will probably be their best chance in almost 100 years. Entrenched in the North and with a sporting chance of gaining the same position very soon in the South. And then? I’m under no illusions as to their true tendencies.
Sinn Fein Is a very left wing party, with an active vigilante wing.
In socially disadvantaged area’s Sinn Feinn politics suit a lot of people.
When I lived in Cork, I heard several stories of anti-social problems reported to the local Sinn Feinn councillor being very effectively and swiftly dealt with by the local Sinn Fein party members.
My old Granny lived next door to a republician anti drugs type in inner city Dublin . He ran drug dealers out of the flats , burned out flats and all of that . Who took over the drug dealing ? He did .
There is a major difference between local thugs and maintaining a secret or a shadow army , that is highly trained and disciplined . .