CNBC: Irelands deficit to reach 32% of GDP

From CNBC, 30th September 2010



That’s some cuttin’

Blue Horseshoe

Can you change the title of the thread to read deficit please. I thought we’d found oil or something :slight_smile:

Whoops! :blush:

Blue Horseshoe

but its manageable… :angry:

Does that 32% figure include one-off bank payments for this year? If so, what is the number when that one-off payment is taken out?

Whatever it is, surely it’s impossible to get that down to 3% by 2014?? How can that be possible even if we wanted to do it?

Which is finished now? right?

2014 is a world away and Lenny will be gone from Irish Politics as will Cowen a& Co.

I doubt it

Oh yes we will.

This current round of “recapitalisation” is really only factoring in the losses from the big Development loans. Still coming down the tracks, undeclared and hushed up, are amongst others:

Commercial bad debt from failed businesses small and large
The BTL Brigade
Residential mortgages
Lifestyle Debt (overdrafts, credit cards, car loans etc)

And then of course the fact that we are in a credit deflation cycle and all the loan books of the banks are being slowly wound down, indeed didn’t St Lendahand make reference to that yesterday. Now if you have a bank where the existing loan book is over time being paid off and/or written off, and where the volume of new loans and lines of business being written is nowhere near enough to replace the older loans that are disappearing, well the result is simple: reduced cashflow, reduced profits, increased losses, eventual Death.

We’ll be pumping money by the truckload into these zombie insolvent turkeys for years and years to come, and still they won’t be lending and “restoring the flow of credit to the economy”.

The complete denial in the country about these banks is really amazing.


What was it the British used to say about ruling the Irish,
Keep them drunk an keep them Stupid!


While the big hits are likely over with the banks, the drip, drip is just starting. Johnny builder/developer/plasterer with a couple of million owed has not registered yet and there are thousands of them IMO, another 10-20 billion of crap just there, then the residential mortgages for underemployed, unemployed, over-stretched, and plain stupid, plus the Joe the Trucker types with the BTL portfolio. There could be another 30-40 Billion out there that is unrecoverable in those 3 areas.
Commercial might not be so bad as some has already gone in under NAMA but retail will continue to struggle putting it mildly and there will be continued pain in commercial, albeit with less loans tied to it.
Business loans are another unknown, as are personal loans, credit card debt, and car loans. Loss making trackers are a significant issue for banks too.

All in all, I cannot see the next 12 months going by without further writedowns and further capital needs, in a nutshell fubarred :cry:

No.1 haircut required here 8)
What surprised me a bit about yesterdays announcements was the mentioning that only loans over 20 million were going into NAMA and thats a fairly hefty deviation from the original 5 million limit. Presumably it has something to do with the lenght of time the whole process is taking but that still leaves a hell of a lot of undiscounted toxic junk on the zombie banks books. I fear that the 64 billion figure mentioned on TV3 the other night could well turn out to be conservative and we have hit the 50 billion mark already.