Comparing housing vacancy estimates

irelandafternama.wordpress.com/2 … estimates/

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Yawwwnnn. I am sooooo underwhelmed at the frantic scurrying of academics nowadays.

It would be a lot more entertaining if they came up with something original!

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This is good stuff overall and the commentator is staying scrupulous and sticking to the facts …including the PIN analysis up to 2008.

But they have not actually looked at the elephant in the room.

  1. NAMA is for loans over €5m only.
  2. Countrys Tom lot has 35000 empties most heading for NAMA
  3. Country Tom has another 15000 part builts ( more than a raft)

Thats say 50,000 marketable units heading for NAMA along with development land etc.

  1. There are another 315,000 empties, some of which are held by builders who are too small to be on the NAMA radar.

NAMA will end up controlling only a FRACTION of the empties in the state and can do nothing to influence pricing owing to lack of prevailing market power unless the old incentives to buy a new house instead of a second hand house are reintroduced for FTBs.

Will also be far more houses per €1m in loans with the developers under the €5m threshold and those going into NAMA.
Much of the stuff with developers over €5m will be commercial but at under €5m it would be nearly all houses.

As the academics have now caught up to where the pin was 3 years ago maybe we should hazard a guess about how many houses will be demolished by the end of the cycle. 100K? 200K?

There are only so many houses that can be used for social housing and using the empties for social housing would collapse the rents in the rest of the market adding another 100K/200K plus units to the investor n.e list. I know there is a big overlap between the empties list and the amateur property investor list but social housing will not only not bail out the amateurs but make their financial position far worse.

Knowing the mentality of the ruling class paying billions to demolish these houses to the same people who built the houses in the first place at a cost of tens of billions will seem a perfectly logical solution to the problem.

Seems too outrageous? Well I’m sure few of us thought that the taxpayer would end up owning Anglo Irish Bank at a cost of 20% of GNP or one years total government receipts just to hide the sins of a few insiders. So demolishing 100K/200k empty houses does not sound too outrageous in the land of cute hoor economics.

Eventually …100k. Apartments will be combined 2 for 1 in some cases to get one liveable space as will terraced houses in some areas. Management companies should even be given the right to compulsory purchase if they have a registered plan to reconfigure their blocks.

We must dezone every piece of land in the state that is

a) Not owned by NAMA
b) Not owned by a developer who gets a “Certificate of Clear Solvency” from the Revenue
c) In an Electoral Area ( not district) with an empty rate over 10% of the stock. No rezoning to be allowed until the area drops to 6% empty.

This is a myth. [ and couldn’t find them**went looking for the housing list* * (https://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=8844&p=73561&hilit=housing+list#p73561). Others are on the list to get some affordable housing.

The first exercise would have to be to prune the housing lists ruthlessly and then to ruthlessly vet new applicants and require them to sign on in Housing every 4 months to keep on the list ( unless they are certified not right in the head in which case cut them slack)

Then a lot of the empties are not good enough for social housing, the corpo build very good quality houses nowadays unlike the FF developer classes.

Ultimately the private rented sector is dwarfed by the number of empties so there is no demand really compared to the scale of the problem.

I reckon that the number of real social housing applicants out there is a quarter of the empties. If you sell up you do not qualify, only eviction will help. There is a moratorium on that nowadays. Do we want to crash the private rented sector in most of the country by giving them social housing???

There is a chance that an IVA like process will enable many to own their own home without even paying the mortgage off …that is the next big one on the horizon in 2 or 3 years when Burgess finally reports.

Then we are steadily regulating grotty bedsits out of existence with fire regulations and such, we should continue with that.

So we are many years from dealing with the empties and there are myriad ways to do that, some good policy and some stupid.

Maybe they will start with demolitions and greenfielding in National Parks first. It would be a good place to start the bulldozing.

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