Confidence and hope can trump counsel of despair

irishtimes.com/newspaper/opi … 56672.html

I stopped reading at this point.

I get that confidence is important in terms of recovery. Its just that people have been consistently lied to and betrayed by the very same people hoisting the banner of “confidence” since this whole mess started.

Don’t rock the boat, baby seems to be the message.

When I read articles like this in the Times by economists, I’m always glad I didn’t waste time studying the subject. They say so little about the economy or economics, that I feel I missed nothing.

He’s making the same mistake as most others - seeing the issue as a current day one that needs to be sorted.

This is wrong.

The bubble was the problem. This is the fallout.

Simply seeing it as a “Keep Calm And Carry On”/“Confidence and hope will carry the day!” is to miss the reality of the situation.

The bubble, and it’s disastrous, resultant bank guarantee, brought forward future expenditure and paid with the promise of future income.

The money is gone.

The choice now is to commit the future income to past bubble commitments or call a halt and renegotiate.

Continue to live the dream/nightmare or confront reality - that’s the choice.

This is the drivel that runs side by side with the political wisdom that having elected the village idiot to replace the local gangster all is now well.

Garrett Fitzgerald once said that the reason he went into national politics was that he would never have survived university politics, it was so savage. O’Hagan probably sold more textbooks on the Irish economy than any other university professor, yet has has been largely mute for 3 years. Part of this reads like a TCD / UCD spat and jealousy that a UCD man is listened to.

The whole “confidence” thing is bananas and a barrier to reforms we need. Most people who advocate default do so because they see it as inevitable and doubt our leaders ability to game the Euro politics to choose the best time to default.

However, its true that the advocates of default are notably lacking in any evidence that default is going to really lead to some bright new world. The Greeks with a lot less linkage to the outside world, are better placed to default than we are. Lenihan, clown that he was, was correct when he pointed out that the consequences of default for a small open economy are much more serious than for a larger or less open one.

What O’Hagan could do, would be to spell out the likely consequences of a default on our ability to import oil and foodstuffs from the UK. Also what would a default mean for the US multinationals supply chains ? How would Symantec or Salesforce get paid ? How would the IFSC function? Would the telecoms cables and bank clearing still function ? What contingency plans have the Civil Service put in place ? (hmmm, think I can answer that one)

There are severe echoes to this in the respose to what I see as the realism of Mr. Varadkar. FG were elected in part on a promise of not sugar coating the message. Mr. Varadkar did this when he said that the chances of us returning to the markets next year were low. That is the overwhelming message of both the markets and of international commentators. Sticking our heads in the sand now and smoking the hopium pipe that confidence in confidence will fix everything is the failed policy of the last four years. It is, indeed, the only policy that institutional Ireland seems to be capable of.

So institutional Ireland attacks the messenger yet again.

Insitutional Ireland addicted to the Hopium pipe! Brilliant! :smiley:

Why submit/publish this now?

Has this been sitting in Geraldine Kennedy’s in-tray for the last 4 weeks/4 months/4years?

Is there an actual point to this article - other than: Morgan Kelly knows as much about economics as Paul the Octopus does about football. Nah nah, nah nah nahhhhhh!!!

This is like some mad, drunk uncle at a wedding, spitting viperous, raving insults into the black night at some unseen, long-departed foe, then collapsing wanly, vomit-like on the grass, smiling beatifically, in the glow of this glorious victory.

Jesus, Morgan Kelly must be driving academic Ireland mental.

Erm, such a vivid description, is there more you need to tell us about how you collapsed, vomit-like on the grass WGU??? :open_mouth:

What got us into this mess was people “peddling hope”.

Mortgages, lottery tickets, lifestyles, anything that fed peoples’ hope that they might some day escape to a better life and being a better person.

They’re still at it…

Our economic society would be so much better off without these people.

I found this part most amusing:

Fuckwittery still rules the roost. Don’t these guys get it that we are F U C K E D?

And he is of course former faculty colleague of Patrick Honohan and Pat still walks down College Green to dine in College from time to time.

Though Honahan at this point is a dead ringer for Dad’s Army’s Corporal Jones… ‘Don’t Panic… don’t panic…’

So is this a Paddy “No Firesales” Honohan riposte via a proxy?

@WGU

I simply dont know the answer to that. But Pat is such a ‘nice man’, he seems to have enjoyed immunity even on here !

I suffered through this article twice, in an effort to make sure I wasn’t missing some in-depth economic point.

Genuinely, there were times I had to remind myself I was reading the work of a TCD professor of economics and not a Brendan O’Connor Ballsy McHope-type sindo article.

Beyond using the word ‘despair’, I will restrain from making any further comment. :imp:

No immunity from me!

Manageable…
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=33436

Paddy “No Firesales” Honohan
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=36310

@WGU

I always take you as the given exception to the general rule !

:smiley:

Not quite sure what that says, given the company I keep!

I’ve just went through all four pages of comments on the IT site. Only one supportive comment half way down page 3. The rest tear him to shreds. It’s a real eye opener when an article like this attracts even more vitriol among IT subscribers than it does on the Pin. A clear insight into how far public opinion has swung.