The July index shows construction employment is down 16% on the same month last year. The rate of decline indicates that the year end fall will be somewhere between 20-25%. That is a shocking possibility, upto a quarter of construction jobs wiped out in one year. That would translate into circa 55-70,000 construction job losses with somewhere north of the 60,000 mark most probably. That works out at 3% of total employment in the economy or about 1 in every 35 jobs in the economy wiped out in just one sector. So much for the range of merchants telling us that the construction industry ould lose only 20-30,000 jobs from peak to bottom!
When you add in the impact of this decline onto every segment of the economy it impacts upon the overall impact must be in the region of 100,000 jobs just wiped out in the economy or almost 5% of total employment in 2009 alone. The latest QHS bares out this analysis with overall employment in the economy falling by 27,000 in the March-May quarter alone.
I remember Raging Bear coming up with some such predictions over a year and a half ago on the PIN.
Why, when all such figures have been predicted quite accurately by many here, have the so-called experts been so wrong on so so many counts?
It was a national disgrace that the credit scam was allowed expand unchecked in the manner that it was. It has now become a national disgrace that no mainstream commentators have been either capable or willing to call it as it was and is - and to allow people properly prepare for the coming onslaught. Until last week we were experiencing a “blip” FFS.
The last general election was fought by all the parties on the basis of how they were going to get the boom back up and running. Even worse, Mary Hanafin yesterday said that unemployment wouldnt rise above the region of 6%! Yesterday!
It would appear that we are on autopilot while headed directly into an oncoming economic tsunami.
Everything that has happened has happened exactly as predicted by the collective wisdom of the Pin. And we gave specifics too - which sectors would be affected and in what ways, right down to estimates of job losses in each sector and specific firms that were wildly over-exposed.
The only thing that took us by surprise, I think, is the extremely long-drawn-out nature of the Standoff/Denial phase which has been going on here for around the same amount of time that some other countries got their peak-to-trough declines out of the way
And at least partly, the duration and persistence of Denial must be attributed to the fact that 99% of the media and politicians are clueless, moronic, utterly wrong about everything bubbleheads. No alternative view was permitted in the mainstream media. The mainstream media are still feeding denial. And the mainstream media is full of people who have been so wrong, consistently, about so much, over so many years.
Why the hell are people like Austin Hughes and Dan McLaughlin still in their jobs? Is there no penalty for being hopelessly, completely, utterly Wrong, being completely Wrong all the time over years, and being utterly incompetent in your alleged profession? Why do the media give any oxygen to their mindless witterings? You’d get better economic analysis from your left shoe, than you would from Comical and Desperate. WTF is going on? What is wrong with this country?
Just last night I was banging my head against the wall in frustration while listening to a conversation between two fellas I normally consider fairly intelligent, as they wibbled on about “Ah poor Bertie, shure wasn’t he a grand lad, man of de people, did no harm to nobody, kep’ d’conomy going great guns and house prices up, we need more like him”.
The herd out there are bloody clueless about the scams perpetrated on them over the last decade and the absolute sh1tstorm of screaming pain accelerating down the tracks right at them. Worse, they are grateful to the scammers for stealing their futures in exchange for a little glimpse of the miracle, for just 5 minutes on Honest Bert’s Property Carnival Brown Envelope Of Fortune.
I see no sign of hope, no sign that realisation is dawning, no sign of Truth being told anywhere outside this Internet forum. I used to be a bit scornful but now I am completely terrified at the damage this will do to Ireland, the Irish people, the Irish State. Will there even be an Ireland when this is all over? I fear we have lost a lot more than just some money.
Same applies to growth figures. Activity was always going to decline drastically, and this had to have knock-on effects. I like to think that people knew what was going to happen and just weren’t saying anything, but what people (banks, builders, investors) were actually doing as well as saying puts paid to that theory. Sheesh.