Construction PMI - residential, commercial, civil all down

[code] Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) – Following is a summary of the August
Ulster Bank construction purchasing managers’ index for
Ireland from NTC Research:
*T

                            Aug.     July     June      May    April
                            2007     2007     2007     2007     2007

=============================================================================
Total Activity 43.8 47.5 46.8 50.7 50.6
Housing Activity 31.4 33.8 32.5 37 39.1
Commercial Activity 49.9 52.7 51.4 57.3 53.4
Civil Engineering Activity 44.6 51.6 50.6 55.6 55.1

NOTE: Anything above 50 indicates expansion; below 50, a contraction.
The greater the divergence from 50, the greater the rate of change.
Historical figures come from previous press releases.
[/code]

The rate of decline in housing construction might still be accelerating (a faster rate of fall) according to this. Commercial stagnant and commercial quite possibly starting to fall :exclamation: .

My brother has 2 Slovaks working for him, one of them is returning home with his family because the sums don’t add up any more, wages are rising over there, work is easy to get get over there, and the cost of living is much lower over there, there is no financial gain being in overpriced Ireland.

A friend of ours has a recruitment agency bringing in Eastern European workers, there are far less people looking to come over and there are far fewer Irish companies looking to recruit foreign staff.

The whole thing is turning into a bottomless downward spiral.

Choice quote right there - heard McArdle on the radio this morning blaming the weather, saying he’d like to see September stats before he jumps to conclusions.

I mean, housing starts, mortgage lending, ESRI-waffle survey - all down. But this guy reckons his little report might be a blip cos it rained a bit? :unamused:

And who can blame them, the beer is better and cheaper over there and the women are generally better looking. :wink:, plus wages are rising due to labour shortages of skilled workers.

Anecdotally, I am observing the same pattern and a lot more will leave starting 2008 as they have achieved their 5 year plan and opportunties improve at home. Others who have no where to go are already signing on on the social welfare and my landlord has told be he is being asked to sign the form for rent allowance in recent weeks (he refused so far), something he has not been asked to do since the early 90’s when most of his tenants were Irish people returning from the building bust in the UK and USA.

2pack did point to this in a previous post - thepropertypin.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3206

Amen to that. Bratislava is a grand little place with decent public transport aswell.

No doubt the weather had an effect on declining numbers of planning permissions granted last year and the continued downward trend this year.

Planning permissions granted for new Irish homes fell 15% in Q3 2006
finfacts.com/irelandbusiness … 8527.shtml

And this little gem, yes it was April fools day.

**Latest figures show signs of new housing shortage **
April 01, 2007
archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/200 … y22349.asp

Planning Permissions Statistics
cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Databas … ssions.asp

ahh but sure September/October is the selling season and you don’t want to make viewers cars all dirty by starting new phases while they are looking around…

And then November to February is too cold to be starting buildings… and then it is the spring selling season…

Why will he not sign it, it makes no difference to him surely, he still gets his money. Its only an issue if he is not decalring the income to the revenue and not registered witht he PRTB, which begs the question :wink:

I find this an untennable position from any landlord.

My landlord has been in this gig since he was knee high to a grasshopper and can size up tenants very quickly. The reason is very simple, people with no jobs tend to hang around all day, become bored and drink beer or smoke. They then have lots of time to focus on making complaints and/or work for the landlord and creating a nuisance for other tenants. Since there are plenty of other ‘professional’ tenants available he can refuse their custom, but, he will change his mind once the rental market changes.

He is also fully compliant with the law and tax regulations, but your point is correct, there are other landlords in the rental market who will not sign since their tax affairs are not in order.

You say it, like it’s a bad thing… :smiling_imp:

Exactly, in the context I used above, it is a very bad situation for both parties. So why the expression of anger?

Expression of anger?

You’re confusing → :imp:

With → :smiling_imp:

The second one is the twisted evil grin which is entirely appropriate, as I was making fun at your expense, Green Bear and certainly not expressing anger.

Rather than bad for both parties, I would counter that it’s good for the permanently sauced. Besides, boredom doesn’t necessarily result in alcohol and cigarettes.

Sometimes you start with alcohol and cigarettes and end with boredom! :wink:

Mea culpa.

maybe your icon was appropriate since idle hands do the devil’s work.

The only work worth doing mate! :wink:

[code] Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) – Following is a summary of the September
Ulster Bank construction purchasing managers’ index for
Ireland from NTC Research:
*T

                           Sept.     Aug.     July     June      May
                            2007     2007     2007     2007     2007

=============================================================================
Total Activity 41.6 43.8 47.5 46.8 50.7
Housing Activity 29.5 31.4 33.8 32.5 37.0
Commercial Activity 49.5 49.9 52.7 51.4 57.3
Civil Engineering Activity 42.0 44.6 51.6 50.6 55.6

NOTE: Anything above 50 indicates expansion; below 50, a contraction.
The greater the divergence from 50, the greater the rate of change.
Historical figures come from previous press releases.

Source: Ulster Bank, NTC Research
[/code]

NTC Research also gave Finfacts this helpful Graph

https://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/uploads/ub1oct082007.jpg

More on the PMI on Finfacts here

Pat McArdle was then rolled out to comment.

I would point out to Pat that a lot of the ‘increase’ in permissions is in reality the renewal of permissions that would otherwise have expired …you know the 100 houses that the builder has yet to start on his land bank. Keeps the value of the land high Pat you know, keeps UB happy about their collateral !

They are not new green field projects sunshine.

I threw my radio through the window.

That moronic business editor on Newstalk flatly said that prices will be rising again soon and everything will be OK.

Could we start an e-mail campaign to Newstalk to request that they stop equating:

higher property prices=good
lower property prices=bad

morons morons morons :imp:

Gecko, gecko, gecko what will we be doing with ya. Sure don’t ya know we are moving up the value chain son. High prices are a reflection of the chain, do ya know. Once we reach the top of the chain all become clear. :wink: