Consumers remain upbeat on spending in downturn

examiner.ie/irishexaminer/pa … qqqx=1.asp

Maybe I’ve been reading the pin too long… but it strikes me that lots of people have their heads in the sand. Yeah, it’s the sharpest slowdown we’ve seen in decades, but it’ll impact other people, not me. Further evidence of cognitive dissonance?

Look at it the other way - one in four think it will have a serious impact. That’s a lot of impact.

Even one in eight believing a very serious impact would more than double the unemployment rate.

Given that a quarter of people are employed by the government, it is hardly surprising that that many people think it will have no impact.

And, of course, this is a survey based on current conditions. Most people are incapable of looking at second round effects “I work in a dentists, sure people will always need their teeth straightened and whitened”. Not if they don’t have any money, they won’t!

Yes, it’s the inability to see the second-round effects - I’m (personally) well aware of my lack of job security, but I meet people all around who feel 100% secure when I doubt they should be… 2 friends, one a solicitor, one a recruiter come to mind. If the pie is shrinking, then there will be less work? Maybe I’m a bit too pessimistic, but I just think people should plan ahead, take stock of whatever nest-egg they have, think about ways to survive on less money, and adjust expectations as it is going to be a rough few years all-round.

Yeah, HR and recruiters are going to take a pasting as far as I can see. CPL shares anyone?

Guys, did anyone hear the economist Mark Coleman on Newstalk this morning, he said we need to stamp out this negative attitude from the doom or nay sayers and if you cant say anything positive then “Shut Up” or similar.

He said the government should remove stamp duty as they have in the UK to stimulate the housing market. I think he should go back to school as his stupidity and VI nonsense is nauseating.

I also think thats a pretty piss poor way to treat people who are realistic about the mess this country is in as a result of this shambles of a government and VIs and I think idiots like this so called economist ( :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: ) should back up his comments with facts or shut the f**k up and stop annoying people who are not sheeple. :smiling_imp:

Have you not heard spqr64? “The Best Is Yet To Come” :wink:

Speaking if Mark, he seems to be back to plugging “The Best Is Yet To Come” in his Sindo byline, it had been absent for the past few weeks.

Can you remember enough of what he said to give us a quote we can hold up in 1 years to embaras the maggot?

Maybe Mark’s been in Ireland too long - ever notice how many of those complaining about “doom & gloom”, telling us how sound the “fundamentals” are, and how promising our economic future really is have not lived abroad for any length of time?

It always strikes me (particularly reading the pin introductions thread) that a majority of realists / talk-downers have spent some time abroad in the last 10 years. A lot of people in Ireland have swallowed the Celtic Tiger propaganda lock-stock. They truly believed that we Irish manufactured some unique magic-dust that turned us from the poor-man of Europe into the new Switzerland (land of the wealthy), that the only way for Ireland’s economy is up. Those of us who lived abroad for a while found it easier to see through the veneer of SUVs and million-pound 3-bed semis. It was a fun and fizzy few years, but never sustainable.

From the same newspaper

Been living in Ireland all my life TBear but never bought into the Tiger, even though I was still in the Civil Service when it first crawled out of the jungle.

I do however remember the 80s & early 90s, particularly unemployment/emigration here, and the yuppie boom & bust in the UK, so maybe that has something to do with it.

P.S. Thanks for the opening TBear, that’s 500, I’m a Property Magnate now :wink:

That’s just a fleeting phase in Ireland Ozzy. :laughing:

Nah the best is yet to come, I’m so credit rich it hurts 8)

I was talking to a service guy for Munster Joinery during the week (probably in his late twenties), who said that they were down about 50%, he then said “but sure it’ll pick up again, it always does”

Just goes to show what some people believe! :open_mouth:

Given that most things have only been giong up for the past 10-15 years, it’s amazing how it “always picks up”, I would have though that implied a more turbulent business cycle. Surely in recent history it has never had to “pick up” as it was always up anyway.

I don’t often post youtube links, but this one sums up this article.

youtube.com/watch?v=2yhN1IDLQjo

It’s all about how you structure these polls.

He said something like (not 100% accurate) “the government should clamp down on these people talking down the economy, they should remove stamp duty altogether as done in the UK to stimulate the housing market and that people who dont have anything positive to say about the economy should shut up” thats the gist of it, he seemed annoyed like someone had stolen his sweeties or maybe its because more people are making it known they see through the mist of shite he and his ilk have been propagating this last decade. :laughing:

They say the only thing certain when times are good is that it will worsen and the only thing certain when times are bad is that they will ultimately improve. This too will pass

of course the timing of the passing is the sticky-wicket. 8)

I only heard a clip of the piece with Mark Coleman, but I picked it up as follows…

Mark Coleman: We need constructive pessimism, but it has to be constructive
Newstalk: Are you advocating censorship?
Mark Coleman: Not at all, but if you can’t back up what you say with facts, then shut up!
Newstalk: …hysteria…

While posters mightn’t agree with his facts, his sentiment is valid.

So on that basis we would have to censor any discussion of property in Ireland ?

After all we have no database of sales prices, or even a clear idea of how many habitable properties there are in the state !!

For someone who claims to be a economist to complain about people talking without facts, is like Gary Glitter criticising parents for letting their kids run wild :unamused:

No we wouldn’t. There are plenty of facts regarding property in Ireland. Some can be agreed upon, some can’t.

True

False, the number of habitable properties is available following each census. Maybe it can be agreed upon. maybe it can’t.

No its not.