Coolbeg, 14 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge (-550k, -10%)

Worth noting a house like this hitting the market as a means for future comparison.

Coolbeg, 14 Shrewsbury Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4.
5 Bed Detached House 371.6 m² / 4000 ft² For Sale.

€5.5m.

myhome.ie/residential/brochure/coolbeg-14-shrewsbury-road-ballsbridge-dublin-4/1835489
… as well as the obligitory write-up in The Times
irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2012/0329/1224314035781.html?via=mr

So Ireland’s premier road commands an asking price of €1,375 per square foot.

One of it’s neighbours is the (in)famous Walford, which sold in 2005 for €58m.
Should Coolbeg achieve less than €5.22m, then the new owners will have distinction of paying less for their new house than Walford attracted in Stamp Duty alone !

I am always intrigued when I see what a place sold for 30+ years ago!!

So here are some stats;

A 12.5%+ IRR for the owners over 46 years (Now thats a powerful return after 46yrs with tax free compounding!!)

[As an aside, The US stock market over that period has done 7.5% pa (excluding dividends, which is fair as I didnt include ‘rent’ the above example). Credit has also grown 7%+ (in US, most likely more in Ireland) over the same period]

Just shows how hard it is to beat growth in credit over a long period of time. Yes, this house did it, but its on the best road in the best performing economy in Europe, over that 40 yr timeframe. In a country that obsesses about property (where most of its new found wealth seemed to go)

Funnily enuf, my parents old home, which they sold a few years after I was born, came up for sale recently. The asking price is a mere 8% IRR above where they sold it 30 odd years ago. Naturally, being a materially more modest home it couldn’t even beat the stock market and I bet Irish credit growth was higher over the period!!

Just shows that over along period of time, everything converges. Yet they all have their own bubble periods (late 90s for stocks, the next 6 years for Irish property)

Trying to compare property with stock performance is tricky.

They purchased the property for £18,000.
Yet, assuming a modest 66% mortgage, they only had £6,000 in cash and borrowed £12,000.

So is it more appropriate to work out what £6,000 would have yielded if it had been invested in the stocks over the same period of time and then discount the cost of borrowing £12,000 over the period of the mortgage ?

All ideas greatfully received. :slight_smile:

True. Most people leverage their property purchases, which generally enhances returns (assuming you survive periods like the 80s when rates hit almost 20%!)
One can leverage purchases in other assets, like the stock market, as well, but tend to have your loan called in when in negative equity, unless you stump up more cash

I guess I am just intrigued when I see these blurbs noting what something sold for so long ago and how the returns are almost never much better than broad economic growth (Wages, GDP etc), despite all the other positive catalysts over that period (Collapsing interest rates, Demographics, Parabolic credit growth etc). 8% is a tough tough number to beat it seems (unless you started Microsoft or are W Buffet!).

It will be even harder to beat with many of those positive catalysts of the last 40 years reversing!! But maybe there are some new catalysts coming…the Chinese?!?

The next 6 years?!

I checked the 1911 census. It was owned then by a 53 year old catholic spinster called Sophie Roberts who had two servants.

on a slightly pedantic note, the longest they could have had it is 42 years so maybe revise down to 40 years given they said the 70’s…

@Blamegame - how did you get the information about who lived there in the 1911 census is there some on-line facility? Is that possible for any existing address?

You on the hunt for a rich elderly spinster ? :stuck_out_tongue:

lmgtfy.com/?q=census+1911&l=1

Would anyone disagree that this is one of the finest homes in Ireland? After all, what houses should cost more? Maybe some really big seaside ones in Dalkey, but really this one is right, right up there I would have thought.

As such, €5.5m asking seems relatively modest to me!

To put the other perspective - It certainly wasn’t one of the finest houses in Ireland in 1911 or a rich spinster with only two live-in servants wouldn’t have been living in it. I’m sure there must have been a lot of wealthier people than her 1911 and their standards of habitation surely reflected that? It is “only” 4000 sq feet.

I understand that certain roads obviously get more popular over time.

+1

However not sure how it would stand up against a rental yield calculation :slight_smile:

looks like a properly sized well maintained house in a quiet neighbourhood to me. Not sure I would ever pay that much money for a house though although the household charge would still be the same…

The household charge is the same this year. 5 years from now I would hazard a guess it will be considerably more!!

You’re right … it’s tiny !!!

https://photos.myhome.ie/media/9/8/4/1835489/fd40ecf2-7_l.jpg

… and to make matters worse, the bit on the left appers flooded. :unamused:

Haha, I didn’t mean to say that it was tiny by any means but if you look at the satellite image, the only two houses on the road which definitely have smaller gardens are Sean Dunne’s and Niall O’Farrell’s, maybe some of the semi’s too. Many of the detached homes on the opposite side of the road look to be over 3/4’s of an acre of rectangular shaped gardens, rather than triangular with significant frontage onto a carpark. According to early 1900’s data, Coolbeg sits on 0.484 of an acre but this could be a little inaccurate.

On the one hand this home looks very expensive relative to places in Dalkey overlooking the sea or places in the Clyde Road/Elgin Road area, which are much closer to town

However, Shrewsbury Road is Shrewsbury Road and will most likely always attract a premium. I would guess that premium here is 2mEUR

Lets not forget that in the bubble days this road ranked in the top 5 streets in the world. Some of those streets, like Kensington Place Gardens command prices of 100-200mln now (bigger homes, but not much bigger gardens).
If you ask me, Shrewsbury Road should never have been in the same league as these streets as it doesnt have the international appeal and is not as well located (ie backing onto a place like Hyde Park)

But if one has the money that 2m EUR could be considered reasonable ‘option premium’ in the hope that Shrewsbury plays catch up again and people like Simon Cowell fall in love with it in a few years!! Then it again, if it lost its space on the Monopoly board that premium could evaporate!

-€550k drop in asking
myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -4/1835489

Sale Agreed

The purchaser is letting it out to tenants as a way to keep it safe from vandalism, water ingress, etc. during that period. That is my guess. For instance if it was purchased by an overseas purchaser arriving in Ireland in nine months time, or some similar situation. Much better to have occupants or some no-goods will come in and steal the fireplaces and lead gutters.

If it is only sale agreed, then I highly doubt the purchaser has the authority to rent it out.