Coronavirus 2020


#1

Anyone know what’s going on with the Coronavirus. RTE have said a second city of 7 million people has been locked down after Wuhan was locked down. This site is saying there have been cases in all Western provinces and 3 cities are locked down in Hubei province where Wuhan is.

https://www.cgtn.com/special/Battling-the-novel-coronavirus-What-we-know-so-far-.html


#2

Chinese New Year - people from the cities travelling back to every far flung village and hamlet across China, you couldn’t engineer a better way to spread it. Dunno about how bad the virus itself is, but I did read that one of the researchers involved in treating people got infected so the lie that was being peddled about ‘animal-human transmission only’ is firmly revealed.


#3

A coronavirus is a kind of common virus that causes an infection in your nose, sinuses, or upper throat. Most coronaviruses are not dangerous.

Some types of them are serious, though. About 858 people have died from Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which first appeared in 2012 in Saudi Arabia and then in other countries in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Europe. In April 2014, the first American was hospitalized for MERS in Indiana and another case was reported in Florida. Both had just returned from Saudi Arabia. In May 2015, there was an outbreak of MERS in Korea, which was the largest outbreak outside of the Arabian Peninsula. In 2003, 774 people died from a severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. As of 2015, there were no further reports of cases of SARS. MERS and SARS are types of coronaviruses.

But in early January 2020, the World Health Organization identified a new type: 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China. By late January, there were 300 confirmed cases in China and a death count that was still in the single digits, but rising. And despite airport screenings, a traveler had brought the first case to the U.S.


#4

What could go wrong.


#5

#6

Interesting timing how news of this seemed to appear online and through the global msm networks in sync with the week, (was it even the same day one wonders) as started the Trump Impeachment trial in the US Senate… just saying’ like. :whistle:


#7

Yeah it’s definitely human to human now. The way the medical people are dressed in snaps video they believe it’s contact not airborne.


#8

Just hearing rumours from locals but it could be much worse than thought on deaths and actual cases and seems to be airborne. Very much rumours right now and I’m not seeing this in the news yet. Someone saying it’s worse than SARS. Could be gossip. Let’s see.


#9

China possesses the required technology and resources to mass-produce traditional BW agents as well as expertise in aerobiology. The country has also acknowledged research in defense against biological weapons; in 2007 China announced a 20-year plan to set up a research center to study natural and man-made epidemics as well as to produce vaccines and protective equipment. [28] In 2007, it was also announced that China would open its first BSL-4 laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, part of the Chinese Academy of Science. [29] China completed the facility in January 2015, but the National Health and Family Planning Commission must validate the facility before it becomes operational. Several Chinese scientists also conducted BSL-4 training in France, a key partner in the project. [30] While China’s substantial dual-use infrastructure would in theory be integral to a large-scale BW program, it is also indicative of a modern research and development complex aimed at peaceful applications. Perhaps of greater concern is China’s potential role in the export or transshipment of dual-use goods to countries of proliferation concern such as Iran and North Korea, with whom it retains significant trade relationships. Although China has published thorough export control legislation, its enforcement efforts are understaffed and under-funded, creating a weak link in the system. Additionally, many top Chinese leadership lack sufficient political will to fully enforce domestic export controls, especially when the exporting party is a powerful, politically connected company. [31]

https://www.nti.org/about/board-and-advisors/


#10

One of the main doctors that helped contain SARS, conservatively estimates it’s 10 times worse. Not on death rate but because of how infectious it is. Use Chrome to Translate.

If the rumours are also true. This is a doozy.


#11

Not true. I’ve been following this for the last 3 weeks. It’s just in the last week the numbers of infected and the measures to contain it, have escalated.

This is from 5 Jan.


#12

Chaotic scene in a hospital in Wuhan China.

This is major folks. I believe the fatality rate is far below SARS but the infection rate seems monstrous.


#13

That Twitter account is clearly a Bot. Look at it’s tweets !
But who owns the Bot ? Who wants to destabilize China ?


#14

I’m more interested in the content. Are the videos actually from Wuhan? What they show is pretty frightening. Its not staged. So why would a hospital be crowded full of patients? Maybe they’re…sick?

Everyone and their dog knows that China is a very strong contender for the emergence of the next variation of a" Spanish Flu" type pandemic. Not the only contender but it presents all the perfect attributes.

They are giving a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 for 2019-nCoV:

Seasonal flu has an R0 of 0.9 – 2.1, with a mean of 1.3.

The R0 of the 1918-1919 pandemic causing Spanish flu is estimated to have ranged from 1.4 – 2.8, with a mean of 2.

So yeah, it looks infectious.

Mortality is different. Spanish flu is estimated to have had a mortality rate around 20%. We do not need to see a repeat of the Spanish Flu template, because most deaths were suspected to be caused by cytokine storms…

We need to see the numbers out of China but the public numbers, so far, are nothing like that. On the other hand, our current global population is so much larger than 1919, so if there a couple of million deaths, that would seem frightening.

But would still represent a low mortality rate.

Think of what the number might be if 3% to 6% of the entire global population died, like during the Spanish Flu.

The joker here is the balance between international travel patterns, and disease surveillance. A lot of planning has gone into anticipating an event like this.

Excellent article here: https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/public-health/100-years-after-spanish-flu-lessons-learned-and-challenges-futureu


#15

Trying to lock down a flu type illness is like pissing in the wind. Guess you have to try.


#16

Its up in the air.

This might die off and it’ll be the biological equivalent of the year 2000 bug in IT - much ado about nothing (except for the vast largely hidden, effort to fix it).

Remember swine flu?: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

It is estimated that 11-21% of the global population contracted the illness, and 151,000-579,000 died.

We all shrugged that off. Yet it was scary numbers.


#17

The Daily Mail said there was a suspected case in Belfast :grimacing:


#18

I take your point but I was shootin’ the breeze there somewhat based on my own instincts, which I know are incredibly unique, incalculable, bizarre and generally certifiable. Thus I decided to have a quick look at Google Trends and sure enough, I think this is what I was trying to express but is visually more succinct, to see what burns up the daily 3 second attention span of the average person.

The curve is broadly similar for the Worldwide results, this is the US, past 30days and it ends on the 20th of Jan.

It does seem to me to have knocked the Impeachment Trial of the century everyone has been waiting for off the radar.

Oh and I know what you are thinking, no one would release a dangerous bio-weapon to distract from the the Trump impeachment proceedings because they already know he’s not going to be impeached, but of course he’s going to be Impeached and sure not even the Chinese with there one and only lab (afaict) capable of harbouring something deadly and exotic like this, which also happens to be slap bang in Wuhan, would do such a thing, it’s simply beyond any credibility or human decency to consider such a scenario ever being played out now or in the past. Nuts man, totally nuts and in truth you might be right.

However, in the realm of tactics and that oft heard political aphorism which demands to “never let a good crisis go to waste”, this Coronavirus sure did arrive just in the nick of time, but for whom exactly right? :icon_neutral:

Here is 7 day, News search, illustrating it wasn’t really news until the 21st for the majority of people in the US.

I shall not labour this fanciful line of windy conjecture any further least I be accused of hijacking or de-railing the primary topic at hand for the most ignoble of intentions.


#19

#20

“One patient – a suspected super-spreader, or highly virulent carrier of the disease – is thought to have infected 14 staff in one hospital alone, Yuen Kwok-yung, a doctor and infectious diseases specialist at Hong Kong University, said at a press conference.”
That sentence might give a good indication of the real numbers infected.