Coronavirus 2020


#1295

Indeed.

We’ve carried out ~20K tests here in Ireland. ~95% coming back as negative.

This begins to upset the theory that it is widespread, just in mild form going unnoticed, with similar serious cases as the flu etc.

In the last week, since figures have been available for hospitalisations, it looks like this.

image

I would have thought those kind of high percentages would be coming right down by now with that level of testing and time passed. Quite worrying.

But at least there doesn’t seem to be an indication yet that we’re going exponential. Number of cases day by day still looks pretty linear. Which says to me the existing measures appear to be working fairly well, hopefully bringing the rate of transmission below one person infecting one other person on average, which is the biggest thing it seems to me.

That said the apparent deficiencies in proactive testing and contact tracing is also very concerning. Probably much more so in the more disadvantaged, poorer communities, where the social isolation measures are clearly not succeeding as well as in the better areas.

Death rate obviously is a lagging indicator. I wonder how much it lags, roughly. A month?


#1296

They simply don’t have the capacity to test everyone - Dr Holohan stated yesterday that they are receiving 20,000 requests for tests every day - most coming back negative. We’ve conducted 20,000 tests in total.

Anecdote alerts !!! One mate has been waiting for a test for 9 days, he has a head cold but is livid that he hasn’t been tested. Apparently Leo and the HSE are a disgrace because they haven’t sent a team in hazmat suits to his house. I know another lady who had a HSE ambulance car come to her house and take swabs as she was to unwell to get to a center. She was guzzling Gin and stuffing her face with chocolate that night. That test was negative. The testing centers can process an few hundred people a day and they have to separate thees spoofers from the real cases.

I disagree about the contact tracing, so far it is working as we are not seeing exponential growth. With similar populations Wales and Scotland have more deaths than we do, and their health systems are starting to creak - we are still on top of this and hopefully we remain so.


#1297

Anecdotally again, I know of what I would say is a definite case. - Contacts with both Spanish and Italians. In a business where conditions for transmission were ripe. And he had all the symptoms.

He phoned the day before the first lock-down, told them everything, and was told they were sending a car out. But nothing happened since. I would say too there’s likely a cluster gone out from that point.

So my conjecture is they’re testing in the cities like mad, Dublin and Cork, and this is consuming all their time and resources so that the rest of the country is going under the radar.

But it’s important to tie these clusters down. Not tying them down creates a point of failure, and all it takes is one such point, e.g. How an Austrian ski resort helped coronavirus spread across Europe

I’m not denying the heroism and sacrifice of those rolling out the tests, but we need to get on top of it in these aspects, as it’s not only about the numbers of tests.

And to compound the problem in this aspect of these type of clusters propagating, the Irish are not telling people where the known clusters are (in South Korea they have apps that people have on their phones so they can avoid these ‘hot-spots’ etc.). The Irish are even now still using language like, “in the east of the country”…

I do hope we are on top of it, we may be, but it’s still too early to be sure of it.


#1298

Whatever we can say about Varadkar and co, we started earlier than other countries. Simple as that. So there is potential that a lot of cases have been and will be be averted. It would have been better if bars and restaurants had been closed prior to the 13/14 March weekend, rather than right after, but that ship sailed.

But, and only time will tell, perhaps we were able to avoid a calamitous outcome.


#1299

The lack of positives is quite scary. It means the figures of 14% serious, 5% critical may well be true. With even the serious requiring hospital treatment… It may be that “close contact” has to be quite close in the early (asymptomatic) stages - a kiss on the cheeks, dancing the night away in an apres ski, or cheek to jowl in a crowd at Cheltenham.


#1300

But the figure of serious/critical for Ireland is currently 2.5% and death rate is 0.5% of those tested. Often the more severe cases are those that show up first.
The Diamond Princess had a 20% infection rate of an elderly and susceptible population. There could be a decent amount of people in the population who simply will not get infected with this.
Part of Ireland’s figures comes from people being tested that had zero symptoms and had just been abroad like that friend of mine. She had zero symptoms and just wanted to get tested and she did get tested. It seemed easy for her to get tested and impossible for another friend of mine and his family to get tested as they had not been abroad even though they have many of the symptoms.
I wonder how accurate the test is also given there were a lot of false negatives in other countries.
I believe UK is going to hand out 3.5 Million tests in the next week or so. That will be the first time we really get an accurate view of the true infection rate across a society. If of course the test kits are accurate.
Iceland is also showing much lower figures than 14% serious, 5% critical with just 1.5% falling into that bracket.
Incredible how the earlier testing starts and the more widespread the testing is how much lower the deadliness of the virus gets.


#1301

I think its a function of the the young and middle aged being much more mobile; within countries and between countries, so they get it first and act as an ongoing reservoir of the virus.
Unless the younger cohort are tested and isolated early, the elderly, immunocompromised and others with serious conditions then come into increasing contact with the virus, and the death rate goes up.


#1302

Amazing that Sweden is an outlier in their approach to this whole thing, with life carrying on pretty much as normal (with some restrictions.) I don’t see any of our left-leaning politicians or commentators urging us to follow the Swedish Way - as they do in so many other areas of social policy. Could they be taking the right approach?

Right or wrong, Sweden does not seem to have a worse virus problem than its neighbours, according to the numbers of declared cases.


#1303

Sweden…

Sweden has become an international outlier.

Mentioning the perceived virtues of anything Sweden does is one of those liberal dinner party clichés…

(IMHO, it’s too early to tell.)


#1304

are you sure about it?

Norway
Coronavirus Cases: 3,279
Deaths: 14
Recovered: 6

Sweden
Coronavirus Cases: 2,840
Deaths: 71
Recovered: 16

Deaths per 1M:
Norway 3 vs Sweden 7
cases per 1M:
605 vs 281
Serious/critical:
70 vs 176

Same as in other places very hard to compare raw numbers…


#1305

As of Today Sweden have 71 deaths and 176 in serious/critical condition. Which column that 176 end up in, not the mention the others coming behind, will be very revealing.


#1306

Belarus also continuing as normal…Lukashenko claiming its a psycjosis…


#1307

And Brazil…


#1308

But Johan Giesecke, Sweden’s former state epidemiologist and a current advisor to the World Health Organization, insists that, so far, “there is no indication that we need to fear a breakdown in trust.” He believes the Public Health Agency, which he once headed, has been too drastic rather than too lenient.

“Banning public gatherings is an idiotic idea,” said Giesecke, “and if you’re not feeling sick you should go to work or school. There’s no reason why people who feel well should stay at home and there is no evidence that shows closing national borders or restaurants reduces the spread of viruses. The only preventative measure that has sound scientific backing is washing your hands. But we’ve known that for 150 years.”


#1309

I would’ve thought so too. She’s much better now, exhausted though.


#1310

Maybe it’s all the Refugee’s in Sweden that are making them Corona resistant!


#1311

Contagion is on ITV2 tonight at nine

Good film, worth a look


#1312

In January the UK government decided covid-19 belongs to its disease category “High Consequence Infectious Diseases” (HCID).
One week ago, the UK government decided covid-19 no longer belongs to that category, categorising it instead along with influenza and common cold. That decision was made before the UK was locked down.
It is said the UK government changed the category because strict protocols are already in place for how to deal with HCID; removing that category enabled an entirely new set of protocols to be implemented, i.e. lock down the country. But this is only speculation, as the matter does not seem to have been addressed at all by the UK’s ‘mainstream’ media. Plenty of discussion on tweeter however.


#1313

Don’t know what to make of this…if I understand the term “median” correctly - half those who died are older than 79?

The Department of Health has confirmed the deaths of 10 more people diagnosed with Covid-19, and a further 255 new cases.

It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to 19.

To date, 13 males and 6 females with the virus have died. The median age among those is 79.


#1314

From 2018