Coronavirus 2020


#1308

But Johan Giesecke, Sweden’s former state epidemiologist and a current advisor to the World Health Organization, insists that, so far, “there is no indication that we need to fear a breakdown in trust.” He believes the Public Health Agency, which he once headed, has been too drastic rather than too lenient.

“Banning public gatherings is an idiotic idea,” said Giesecke, “and if you’re not feeling sick you should go to work or school. There’s no reason why people who feel well should stay at home and there is no evidence that shows closing national borders or restaurants reduces the spread of viruses. The only preventative measure that has sound scientific backing is washing your hands. But we’ve known that for 150 years.”


#1309

I would’ve thought so too. She’s much better now, exhausted though.


#1310

Maybe it’s all the Refugee’s in Sweden that are making them Corona resistant!


#1311

Contagion is on ITV2 tonight at nine

Good film, worth a look


#1312

In January the UK government decided covid-19 belongs to its disease category “High Consequence Infectious Diseases” (HCID).
One week ago, the UK government decided covid-19 no longer belongs to that category, categorising it instead along with influenza and common cold. That decision was made before the UK was locked down.
It is said the UK government changed the category because strict protocols are already in place for how to deal with HCID; removing that category enabled an entirely new set of protocols to be implemented, i.e. lock down the country. But this is only speculation, as the matter does not seem to have been addressed at all by the UK’s ‘mainstream’ media. Plenty of discussion on tweeter however.


#1313

Don’t know what to make of this…if I understand the term “median” correctly - half those who died are older than 79?

The Department of Health has confirmed the deaths of 10 more people diagnosed with Covid-19, and a further 255 new cases.

It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to 19.

To date, 13 males and 6 females with the virus have died. The median age among those is 79.


#1314

From 2018


#1315

Guess they havent heard of the south korean church or alpine apres ski joints spread it like typhoid Mary. Once we can seal the borders its on them.

Denmark should shut the bridge if it hasn’t already


#1316

Yeah they resist a lot those guys

I think Sweden just couldn’t lock down so it’s better off not to try


#1317

#1318

Yes, Median is better than Mean as it strips out any outliers. So half who died were over 79, half under.

You might have had 5 over 100 years old there and 5 in 20s but the mid way came to 79


#1319

Isn’t it fair then to assume then that the majority of the half who were over 79 - weren’t much over 79? And that the majority of the half under 79 weren’t much under 79?


#1320

no, don’t think so. My understanding is if five people died and their ages were 9,19,79,80,81 then the median is 79.


#1321

British expert who initially estimated about 2.2M deaths, then revised it down to 500K deaths, now says deaths in the UK are unlikely to exceed 20K.
Apparently a report from Oxford University says that as many as 50% of the UK may already have gotten it, which I also think is a shambles.
20% of an elderly population on the Diamond Princess got it and just over 1% of those died. If I remember correctly from watching a cruise ship episode of Columbo as a kid, they always get one or two deaths on these 2 week cruises (from natural causes) and it’s been nearly 2 months since the people first got on that cruise.
UK are going to give out 3.5M test kits to people in the next week and we’ll find out the true spread of the virus.
I doubt it will be 50% of the population but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was from 0.5% - 2%.


#1322

Yes, but leaving the pure mathematics aside - and given what we know - isn’t it much more likely that the majority of deaths - by a large margin -would be in the higher age bracket?

But when it comes to admissions to intensive care units and fatalities, a far higher proportion were in the oldest age categories (about 80% of fatalities were among the over-65s).


#1323

I may need to revise my estimates upwards somewhat now that Boris Johnson has the coronavirus though.


#1324

Rand Paul tested positive a few days ago.


#1325

It has clearly been incredibly widespread for over a month with so many celebrities, sports people and politicians getting it. Also, the low death rate and serious/critical rates from controlled environments and countries conducting early testing suggest that countries showing a high death rate actually have infections, orders of magnitude higher than they have currently confirmed.


#1326

But 90% of Irish test cases were negative, go figure!


#1327

Well all that this goes to show is that Ferguson or those people at Oxford University releasing reports are not experts on this virus but are very quick to go to print with the first half-baked estimate that comes into their head. They would be better off keeping their mouths shut.