Coronavirus 2020


#1310

Maybe it’s all the Refugee’s in Sweden that are making them Corona resistant!


#1311

Contagion is on ITV2 tonight at nine

Good film, worth a look


#1312

In January the UK government decided covid-19 belongs to its disease category “High Consequence Infectious Diseases” (HCID).
One week ago, the UK government decided covid-19 no longer belongs to that category, categorising it instead along with influenza and common cold. That decision was made before the UK was locked down.
It is said the UK government changed the category because strict protocols are already in place for how to deal with HCID; removing that category enabled an entirely new set of protocols to be implemented, i.e. lock down the country. But this is only speculation, as the matter does not seem to have been addressed at all by the UK’s ‘mainstream’ media. Plenty of discussion on tweeter however.


#1313

Don’t know what to make of this…if I understand the term “median” correctly - half those who died are older than 79?

The Department of Health has confirmed the deaths of 10 more people diagnosed with Covid-19, and a further 255 new cases.

It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to 19.

To date, 13 males and 6 females with the virus have died. The median age among those is 79.


#1314

From 2018


#1315

Guess they havent heard of the south korean church or alpine apres ski joints spread it like typhoid Mary. Once we can seal the borders its on them.

Denmark should shut the bridge if it hasn’t already


#1316

Yeah they resist a lot those guys

I think Sweden just couldn’t lock down so it’s better off not to try


#1317

#1318

Yes, Median is better than Mean as it strips out any outliers. So half who died were over 79, half under.

You might have had 5 over 100 years old there and 5 in 20s but the mid way came to 79


#1319

Isn’t it fair then to assume then that the majority of the half who were over 79 - weren’t much over 79? And that the majority of the half under 79 weren’t much under 79?


#1320

no, don’t think so. My understanding is if five people died and their ages were 9,19,79,80,81 then the median is 79.


#1321

British expert who initially estimated about 2.2M deaths, then revised it down to 500K deaths, now says deaths in the UK are unlikely to exceed 20K.
Apparently a report from Oxford University says that as many as 50% of the UK may already have gotten it, which I also think is a shambles.
20% of an elderly population on the Diamond Princess got it and just over 1% of those died. If I remember correctly from watching a cruise ship episode of Columbo as a kid, they always get one or two deaths on these 2 week cruises (from natural causes) and it’s been nearly 2 months since the people first got on that cruise.
UK are going to give out 3.5M test kits to people in the next week and we’ll find out the true spread of the virus.
I doubt it will be 50% of the population but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was from 0.5% - 2%.


#1322

Yes, but leaving the pure mathematics aside - and given what we know - isn’t it much more likely that the majority of deaths - by a large margin -would be in the higher age bracket?

But when it comes to admissions to intensive care units and fatalities, a far higher proportion were in the oldest age categories (about 80% of fatalities were among the over-65s).


#1323

I may need to revise my estimates upwards somewhat now that Boris Johnson has the coronavirus though.


#1324

Rand Paul tested positive a few days ago.


#1325

It has clearly been incredibly widespread for over a month with so many celebrities, sports people and politicians getting it. Also, the low death rate and serious/critical rates from controlled environments and countries conducting early testing suggest that countries showing a high death rate actually have infections, orders of magnitude higher than they have currently confirmed.


#1326

But 90% of Irish test cases were negative, go figure!


#1327

Well all that this goes to show is that Ferguson or those people at Oxford University releasing reports are not experts on this virus but are very quick to go to print with the first half-baked estimate that comes into their head. They would be better off keeping their mouths shut.


#1328

Truly a golden age for political leadership around the world:


#1329

80% of Diamond Princess test cases were negative even after been in a very risky environment for weeks.
Ireland also started testing much earlier along the curve than the UK did I believe. That one person came back from Singapore on a flight on January 23 as far as I remember, and he infected everyone around him when he went to France after that. It’s likely that he and many other people before him were infecting people in the UK. None of those people in that group had any major bad effects from that also. That original guy didn’t even know he had it.

Also, it seems that there were many false negative tests from this virus in the early days as it mainly affects the lower chest area. Along with that, they seem to have been testing people who had no symptoms in Ireland, just because they had travelled abroad and had not been testing people who had many symptoms, because they hadn’t travelled abroad.

I don’t think we’ll know the true numbers until we get mass testing, which sounds as if it might happen quite soon in the UK.