Coronavirus 2020


#2749

Its probably higher than 0.1% but allowing for inaccurate and imprecise testing methods, plus misattribution of deaths, the number of deaths and infections is inflated.


#2750

There’s little sense to the daily score-chart of confirmed cases. The numbers are so small that any conclusions that are drawn are meaningless. Today’s figures would suggest that busy, crowded Dublin is the safest place to be:

Nine cases are located in Co Limerick, eight in Co Kildare, seven in Co Mayo, six in Co Cavan, four in Co Dublin with the remainder spread across five other counties.


#2751

Well you try to state COVID is not real so hard… Its no longer funny.
https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/communicable-diseases/tuberculosis/tuberculosis-read-more

According to estimates, 290 000 new TB cases and 26 000 TB deaths were reported in the Region in 2016, mostly in eastern and central European countries.

Most affected groups
TB can affect everyone, but is strongly associated with social determinants of health such as imprisonment, migration and social marginalization. People living with HIV or suffering from other conditions that weaken the immune system, such as diabetes, are at much higher risk of developing the disease. TB patients are most frequently young adults in the eastern part of the Region, migrants, and native-born elderly people in western European countries.


#2752

Where are the asymptomatic cases of TB? Anyone walking around with it?

The numbers you posted point to a IFR of 10%.

C19 IFR is 0.1-0.6%.

I think you made his point for him.


#2753

TB is not all that contagious and we have an effective treatment for it. Sadly some countries may not have access to the treatment and some patients are non compliant. Treatment is usally a multidrug combination that has to be taken for a number of months.
And before we had an effective treatment the mainstay of management was ISOLATION
That’s what all the old TB hospitals were for


#2754

Here’s a foreseen consequence of ‘obey the advice’


#2755

TB is not all that contagious? To be honest, I stopped reading after that statement.


#2756

Here’s a review of TB and Covid in India.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/
On the relative infectiousness of TB and covid
"In time of the epidemic, it was observed that without isolation measures, one infected person could have infected 2.5 people in 5 days which in turn could infect 406 people over 30 days but with proper isolation & containment measures the transmission rate could be decreased to as low as 1.05.10 On the other hand, a person infected with TB has a lifetime risk of 5–15% of developing an active disease and an active TB patient could infect 10–15 people per year.5

So with covid 19 one person could lead to a chain of 406 people infected in 30 days whereas an active TB patient infects 10 to 15 people a year.
It also includes the following
The enthusiastic and mandatory use of masks in the wake of COVID-19 is adding a preventive benefit towards TB spread as well.

So maybe if I lived in or was visiting a region where TB is endemic I might wear a mask.
TB is not endemic in Ireland or anywhere in the West


#2757

And neither is Covid 19. Switch off the mainstream media, live your life as normal and it doesn’t exist. Fear is the real virus.


#2758

First SARs Cov 2. The R0 in cluster spread is around 1.5. In community spread is less than 1.2. Novel epidemic influenza numbers. The S. Korean and Taiwanese numbers from March / April papers have been amply confirmed since and the low symptomatic / high asymptomatic rate for under 60’s and those with low COPE 65 scores gives us a CFR of less than 2% and an IFR of around 0.2%. Media age of death for those with severe viral pneumonia with active SARs 2 infection are the same as Norways, around 80 years old.

Now TB is a different matter. You may not have personal experience of TB but one of my kids got exposed to it in the United States, in California, and had to undergo a very painful 6 month treatment program. No fun for a five year old. TB was pretty much eradicated in the 1960’s but became epidemic again in the 1980’s due to illegal immigrants from Mexico and Central America reintroducing it. TB is epidemic south of the border and illegals account for about 95% of the primary carriers. The other 5% are from the Philippines.

The state and national statistics refuse to acknowledge the problem because of the “politics”. My kid got infected through to a casual exposure to an illegal, who knows where, and it was only afterwards that I discovered just how common TB treatments for exposure are, especially for kids, due to this public health scandal. The illegals have got free healthcare in state for decades and where most of them live in state have little to fear from Los Migres so absolutely no excuse for non treatment. But as 90% of them are illiterate peasants hardly surprising.

As 10% of the Irish population is eastern european and TB is so prevalent in some parts of eastern europe I would not be so sure that you are immune to causal expose to an infected person in Ireland. But I would have far more faith in an eastern european with an infection seeking immediate medical treatment than the typical indio central american illegal immigrant.


#2759

#2760

The media doing their utmost to scupper any chances of pubs re-opening next week. If they could find an outbreak in a bar in Western Slovakia - it’d be front page news:

There’s nothing in the body of this article below that reflects the headlines.


#2761

There is no surprise that crowded indoor venues are the main source of spread. Its been known since early examples in S korea and Iscghl.
There has been a number in the uk associated with overcrowding in pubs

As well as cases associated with house parties in ireland.
Pubs can open and safety, with restricted numbers but once those breaking the restrictions should be fined/lose their licence.

We could always do a full reopening, followed by an enevitable full lockdown in a month or two.


#2762

How is Hydroxychlororquine going these days?

Meanwhile, for those holding out for a vaccine (or those holding you prisoner until they have the one), this may be interesting interview - for some strange reason this snippet of the longer video has appeared under the “anonymous” brand. Strange.

It is actually from a much longer interview with RFK Jr, with lots more detail.

Since the age of 42, he has suffered with spasmodic dystonia, so his voice is very wobbly, not audio modulation of his voice for identity purposes which could be easily construed for the shorter version.


#2763

#2764

If none of the 19 died or ended up in hospital, then does it really matter

I thought the plan in most countries was to lock down so hospitals can cope, did the plan change ?

If you tested 1000 people at random, how many cases would we find


#2765

I think the issue is with the people that these 19 might come in contact with and how many cases that might generate and so on. To be honest I see no issue with a small country pub that generally only has a dozen people in it and only a couple of people at the bar at a time. The problem is that these places could become a magnet and they end up above their old (and safe) level.


#2766

But how do you know they caught the dose in the pub

If we tested 1000 people leaving your local Tesco what if more than 19 tested positive, should we close every supermarket in the country

I still can’t understand why schools are closed, I keep hearing people saying once they open it will be a disaster, but its never explained why


#2767

We’ll find out in a few weeks, my lot are back on August 27th. Slightly terrified but I’m hiding it well :slight_smile:


#2768

Exactly.

Amazing how the narrative changes by osmosis