That doesn’t actually sound bad for Feb 4. The problem is, February 24, and the next 10 days, and the 10 days after that, etc. If the infection rate continues expanding at 10x or so every 10 days then we get very high numbers of infected people very quickly.
Simulation Shows 65 million could be killed worldwide
Eric Toner, a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security, wasn’t shocked when news of a mysterious coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, surfaced in early January.
Less than three months earlier, Toner had staged a simulation of a global pandemic involving a coronavirus.
Coronaviruses typically affect the respiratory tract and can lead to illnesses like pneumonia or the common cold. A coronavirus was also responsible for the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in China, which affected about 8,000 people and killed 774 in the early 2000s.
“I have thought for a long time that the most likely virus that might cause a new pandemic would be a coronavirus,” Toner said.
The outbreak in Wuhan isn’t considered a pandemic, but the virus has been reported in Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia. The US reported its first case on Tuesday: a man in his 30s living in Washington’s Snohomish County, north of Seattle, who recently visited China.
So far, the virus has killed 18 people and infected more than 630.
“We don’t yet know how contagious it is. We know that it is being spread person to person, but we don’t know to what extent,” Toner said. “An initial first impression is that this is significantly milder than SARS. So that’s reassuring. On the other hand, it may be more transmissible than SARS, at least in the community setting.”
Toner’s simulation of a hypothetical deadly coronavirus pandemic suggested that after six months, nearly every country in the world would have cases of the virus. Within 18 months, 65 million people could die.
Actually… Chicago woman that caught it seems to be doing well. That’s a good sign.
I’m hearing of 9 - 12 days incubation period. Also, confirmed cases now in France, I think two. If that incubation period is anything close to accurate, then it’s everywhere.
It’s starting to look that way. Cases in Hong Kong too, so it’s all over China now which means that cat is out of the bag.
The Chinese I trust 100%
I think this has been brewing since end of last year and there may be 100k already infected in China.
If the death rate is as low as reported but the infected population much higher, then this would not be so deadly in comparison to other seasonal nasties such as influenza?
I see it being reported and referred to as deadly in media reports, but how do I know it is deadly or not? I see media ramp up. I see video on twitter of people collapsing (do I assume they are dead). I see more reports of a case here a case there, I see those videos being removed as other new ones appear, but;
How do I know it is deadly or not?
WHO to believe?
For what to believe?
Lab-Made Coronavirus Triggers Debate
The creation of a chimeric SARS-like virus has scientists discussing the risks of gain-of-function research.
Nov 16, 2015
… The results demonstrate the ability of the SHC014 surface protein to bind and infect human cells, validating concerns that this virus—or other coronaviruses found in bat species—may be capable of making the leap to people without first evolving in an intermediate host, Nature reported. They also reignite a debate about whether that information justifies the risk of such work, known as gain-of-function research. “If the [new] virus escaped, nobody could predict the trajectory,” Simon Wain-Hobson, a virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, told Nature .
What? It didn’t spread from Hilary Clinton’s email server?
serpentza 589K subscribers
My Chinese doctor friends have reached out, things are changing rapidly day to day, hour to hour, I would like to bring you up to date on everything I know with inside information that I’m getting from medical teams on the ground in China and all the significant developments. I will be hosting a live discussion tomorrow the 24th of January at 1pm Pacific Time, I will be joined by fellow China watcher, Laowhy86. See you all there, come with questions, leave with answers.
Chap on the right here if I am not mistaken is the same dude from a video on China posted by @ps200306 elsewhere.
This reminds me, GP mentioned a couple of weeks ago the “flu” this year was doing strange things.
I also know of another who is now on a nebulizer after a tough run but not influenza, it required some hospitalisation, it was something on the lungs but I am not sure it was determined, this was over the festive season.
“Make no mistake, though, this is an emergency in China,” he said. “But it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one.”
Dr Cuddihy described the risk of a case occurring in Ireland, even through secondary infection, as “low”.
Cuddihy be wrong?
Let’s hope his outlook is on the money.
I think Japanese coverage is worth watching - they’re the only somewhat honest, advanced country in the region.
Its in Melbourne too, apparently a male who flew in on the 19th. That’s almost a week ago. This is likely already out of the the bag and quite contagious. People have been on planes while contagious with hundreds of others.
Stock up on n95/p2 masks , cold defence spray, zinc supplements and probably good to bring a hand sanitizer around everywhere with you.
Though you might need to wear goggles too
I told my brother and sister in law in California to get those masks on Amazon. They are sold out. He went to the pharmacist, also sold out. They said they were sold out immediately. Apparently they are going for big money now from private sellers. I believe the Chinese people in the U.S. alerted people far in advance. Also, I read somewhere of someone saying there were notices in Wuhan in December requiring people to wear masks and the virus was known about back then. Best thing you can do is not to compromise your immune system over the next few weeks. Take your vitamins.
I’m in the Middle East right now, and went to a Pharmacy in a large Mall. Sold out. The Pharmacist was trying to call other places to get stock, and there was two Chinese girls standing there also making calls.
I was able to source some in a smaller place though.
No-one else seems very bothered here though.
Three in new south Wales, more being tested in South Australia. one case arrived on the 6th of January. Long incubation period…
New research on the Wuhan coronavirus has found the virus may be present in the lungs of individuals with no obvious symptoms.
(By the way, check out how 6 people in the one family had it out of 7 and the one that didn’t was wearing a face mask. They were visiting Wuhan from Dec 29 - Jan 4.)
Warning this is totally unverified atm
Use subs in English
Not sure the English is accurate or she even makes those claims from what I’ve read online.
You can use Google Drive Voice then Google Translate to verify what any of the videos are saying. This is a Wuhan accent, I have it on good authority. Sh!t’s hitting the fan folks. Get your masks now. Best defence.
The products more than not appear to come from China via Amazon. It’s possible internal demand is so strong external orders are not being met.