Coronavirus 2020

coronavirus

#4534

What Vaccine?


#4535

Maybe as as result of this
https://www.ft.com/content/71d67d6d-32eb-47f4-b71a-d4986583e04c
Sweden announced its toughest measures yet against coronavirus, including its first recommendation to use face masks, as its death toll continued to increase.

https://www.ft.com/content/71d67d6d-32eb-47f4-b71a-d4986583e04c

Sweden has been the only country in Europe to resist a formal lockdown in both the first and second waves, but its latest measures move it closer to having introduced a de facto closure of large parts of its society. Other measures announced on Friday included restricting the size of groups meeting in restaurants and bars to four people, while the serving of alcohol is prohibited after 8pm. Non-essential workers should work at home for a month, the prime minister said. Mr Lofven also warned that if shopping centres, stores and fitness gyms ignored the maximum limit on people allowed in, then they would be closed down.


#4536

So still open then. Still open. Open.


#4537

Linky to an interesting paper on the perils of PCR tracing of a pertussis outbreak. p2804 paragraph 3 is the highlight…

The overdiagnosis of pertussis during these outbreaks had important public health consequences. These included the unnecessary treatment of asymptomatic individuals with a positive PCR result for B. pertussis DNA who may not have harbored B. pertussis, as well as inappropriate chemoprophylaxis for their close contacts. In outbreak 2, more than 1,100 persons in close contact with an individual with a positive PCR result for B. pertussis DNA were advised to take a 2-week course of chemoprophylaxis with a macrolide antibiotic. Staff at doctor offices, hospitals, and county health departments were overwhelmed with testing demands and follow-up of individuals who tested PCR positive for B. pertussis DNA. During outbreak 2, 10% of the 500-member staff of a community hospital, many of whom were asymptomatic, were furloughed for 5 days as a result of positive PCR tests.


#4538

Dutch going mental now. Enough is enough I guess.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1353377929535885314

JGR ➆ @thematrixjgr

Eindhoven is a war zone. People are done with the COVID-measures. Curfew, tighter lockdown, etc. #Eindhoven #Antilockdown #BreakingNews #COVID19NL #TheNetherlands #Dutch


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[4:23 PM · Jan 24, 2021]
https://twitter.com/thematrixjgr/status/1353377918274166784


#4539

Where the fck has sense gone. Look at some of the comments or tweets or whatever the fck you call them. My God people will you wake the fck up. Now before it’s far too late.


#4540

Euromomo:

Ignore late Dec 2020 because it can take 3-4 months for deaths to be registered but I suspect with zero flu burden that the final numbers will still be a dip. 2017 & 2018 were the last notable years with significant flu burdens, May 2020 is when we can see the actual epidemic and it looks like two or three flu seasons rolled into one. Jan/Feb 2021 will probably be the same or a little less.

The rate of hospital infections is the real scandal here, estimated at 40% of the recent cases notified.

Probably the best twitter analysis of case/hospital numbers here: https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2


#4541

Brexit has some silver linings…

And France is proper fucked, with probably the highest anti-vax public sentiment in the developed world. Their initial numbers won’t be too bad but later on in the summer expect them to lag behind significantly.


#4542

A scientist helping lead the World Health Organization’s investigation into the origins of the COVID-19 virus himself helped channel federal funding grants to the Wuhan Institute of Virology in 2019, the year prior to the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic…

…Yearlong speculations about the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s potential role in the pandemic were given fresh fuel this month when a State Department report alleged that workers inside the lab may have become sick with COVID-19 symptoms weeks before the pandemic is officially said to have begun.


#4543

Those with a questioning mind were listening to the likes of Prof. Dolores Cahill last spring who advocated for supplementing Vitamin D. This was dismissed in some circles as quackery.

Anyway the ‘experts from Ireland’s leading universities’ are now on the case and it’s from breaking news.ie so all is good.

Please take Vitamin D to protect against Covid-19, say Irish experts (breakingnews.ie)

Please take vitamin D to help protect against Covid-19 while the vaccine is being rolled out — this is the urgent message from a group of Irish medical experts.

The experts from Ireland’s leading universities have appealed to the Government to issue updated guidelines for all Irish adults on vitamin D supplements which, they say, can significantly reduce the risk of infection, serious illness and death from Covid-19

However, to date there has been no policy action despite the mounting evidence showing the benefits of supplementation, they say.

The group have pointed to studies describing significant reductions in death amongst older nursing home patients and substantial reductions in ICU admission rates amongst hospitalised Covid-19 patients following supplementation with vitamin D.

They also highlight emerging evidence from Andalucia in Spain, where a public health initiative to supplement all vulnerable groups including those in care homes with vitamin D coincided with a fall in daily Covid-19 death rates from 60 per day in mid-November to just three per day by the first week in January.


#4545

There have been many links and discussions, a few on here and not pushing for broad Vitamin D supplementation is on of the big mistakes in this whole saga. If Chairman Hologram had suggested on any of his regular broadcasts that we all boost vitamin D intake we might be in a very different place.


#4546

Misplaced targets, start protesting outside politicians and journalists homes. They are the ones leading this madness, just went on twitter so may blue checkmarks screeching for the country to turn into a shit version of North Korea.


#4547

https://mobile.twitter.com/ferozwala?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1353675838038962176|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

Coming to a country near you soon.


#4548

https://twitter.com/mcconnelldaniel/status/1353809069425963008


#4549

:joy::rofl::rofl::joy:


#4552

Considering the level of propaganda from governments and their media agents I’m sorry if my rather trenchant opinions have ruffled your feathers. That you are too thin skinned to deal with any push-back.

The numbers you keep quoting with certainty are not only fraudulent but we have documented here and provided primary source references and supported with relevant arguments why they are fraudulent.

There were not 8248 new cases of SARs CoV 2 infections on 8th Jan because the test used provides completely unreliable data on active infection state. These are not in any shape or form reliable clinical test data. They are wrong.

You do understand what Type I and Type II Errors are? This is very basic statistics. There have been multiple primary source reference posted here as to why the Type I error rate of the test used by the HSE is at least 50% and the Type II Error rate is 90% plus. So based on what you have written you show no level of understanding of just how inaccurate and often deliberately misleading official data actually is.

JMC you don’t understand statistics or mathematical analysis. I do. You said test numbers don’t do what they did in the real world. You’re in denial. This is the real world that’s what happened.

That made me laugh. I have been dealing with and fixing very dodgy mathematics in my day job, the stuff that very long PhD and text books are written about, for many decades. Probably way before you were born. And way beyond in complexity anything you seem to be familiar with. I have to known how it works and does not work because my work involves very big investments of time and money. Seven figure and up. Just had to write up a 20 page plus formal proof (serious amounts of squiggles) which will eventual go to publication. I am not some guy who once played around with MathLab, MAPLE or R as a school term project. My job is to cut through the bullshit written by people with very fancy credentials and make it work. Professors are the worst for producing garbage that does not work. I’m talking MIT, Standford and UC Berkeley here, not DIT.

You sound like someone who took a few units of stats for an undergraduate degree and considers themselves an expert. Oddly enough I’ve been discussing this very mathematics, testing, sampling, polluted data sets etc with one of my kids during this ongoing fiasco. They know a little about the subject as they are doing a pure math PhD in a very arcane area of statistical analysis.

Did you see or read any of the primary literature posted here. Everything I said is supported by the primary literature. I have many decades of reading not just scientific literature for work but the medical literature as my health depends on it. I have the same opinion of medical people as I do of lawyers, precisely because i have been dealing with then professionally for many decades. Some are good, some are useful, the rest are either bullshitting if the subject is anything out of the ordinary, or outright frauds.

And everyone in the decision chain of the Nphet and the HSE at the moment is not just a bullshitter but an out right fraud. Telling lies.

Find a testing curve like that, with that slope and peak in that timeframe, in any other western country.

You wont find it because all the data produced is not just polluted by normal data collection noise but is outright fraudulent. The person who OK’ed the acceptance and publication of the data post 12/15/21 knew that no real-world testing process could produce data points like that. Ever.

This is not the HSE and Dept of Health killing and maiming hundreds or thousands of people like with their usual scandals. Of which there have been so many of the years. Their criminal incompetence will kill many thousands of people from secondary effects, leave 15%/20% of the population unemployed, lost business or with much lower incomes and leave the country an economic wreck for many years.

And all this for a novel Hospital Acquired Pneumonia with typical human corona virus mortality rates.

These people should be in jail.

So sorry if my (and others here) very informed opinions upset your accepting the public narrative hook line and sinker. This site was created precisely due to the lock step group think pre 2008 financial collapse. The stake are a lot bigger now, far more serious. There was a lot of public bullshitting by the government and media per 2008 crash but as the stakes this time around are so much higher the outright lies being told have reached Soviet Union in the 1970’s and 1980’s levels.

I remember listening to the Soviet version of the news as broadcast on Radio Moscow back in the 1970’s. Came in loud an clear on medium wave after dark. RTE, IT, and Irish Independent coverage of COVID has been straight out of the Soviet Pravda/ Izvestia playbook from the 1970’s. To your average prole trudging around Tomsk or Minsk in 1978 anyone with a different opinion from that purveyed by the official organs was a crazy conspiracy theory loon.

I think you are just the brainwashed prole living in a dingy kommulka in Tomsk when it comes to COVID. While the rest of use here are busy researching and looking at primary sources, paying attention, and writing samizdat.


#4553

Lot of negative comments on twitter today about the new restrictions. Also the WHO (finally) amended their PCR guidelines last week, and done other synchronicities with various happenings so I’ve been having fun with a :exploding_head::exploding_head::exploding_head::scream::scream::scream: tweetstorm today!! :hugs: In large part because emotion (fear) based decisions can’t be reasoned with so I’m going the emotion route there… Logic won’t work to counter emotionally made decisions :slightly_frowning_face:

But yes, the arguments we have made here are evidenced-based, with primary sources. Different audience.

Does anyone have the link to that American journal quietly reversing their ban on HCQ? I’m wondering if I’ll add that to my tweetstorm.


#4554

Schools tend to concentrate on teaching calculus at higher level (at least mine did) and not probabilities & statistics. Older I get the more I wonder if that an intention of the indoctrination, oops education, system.

I do use stats in my day to day job, but know enough to understand my limits, and get advice from a good biostatician if I go anywhere off my beaten track. Stuff gets very complicated, multifactorial and math limitations/caveats can abound…


#4555

The biggest problem is there is a huge gulf between knowing something and understanding something. Those who just know a particular area of maths just know how to go through the steps to get a result. Those who actually understanding a particular area of maths know why those steps are done, and more importantly what the assumptions and limits are.

A great example is confidence interval. Which is found in pretty much ever medical research paper. Those who just know how to derive a confidence interval do the equations and quote the mid point value, the convention, which is the used as if its some concrete number. As if its the median on a normal distribution. The most probable value. Its is nt. The real world value has an equal probability of being anywhere in the confidence interval. So those who actually understand the maths just look at width often confidence interval first then the mid-value. If the width is 5 or less you have a very reliable value. Under ten is pretty good. Over ten and its just an interesting anecdote with some pretty graphs.

The vast majority of medical research papers have one of more key values in the conclusions that are based on values which have confidence intervals in the range 20 to 40 or more. So nothing more than an interesting anecdote with some pretty graphs.

And then we have people who create very complex models using partial differential equations etc who dont realize that ALL numerical solutions for these equations are based on inherently unstable approximation functions. Which have to be carefully tuned to get reliable values over partial ranges. The first thing I do when reading these guys papers, the big models guys, is do they know the assumptions and hacks that are build into to the black box math libraries they are using that makes them work at all. Almost none of the paper authors do because if they did the subject would get one whole section in the paper. Assumption and limits and cumulative errors.

People who know what they are doing in mathematics assume stuff will always go wrong. People who dont know what they are doing always assume nothing will ever go wrong.


#4556

Watch your 5kms now Paddy

‘Better late than never’ — Government finally crack down on travel

People arriving into Ireland without a negative COVID test will finally be forced to quarantine in hotels, under strict new travel controls.

The Government has been under pressure to put new arrivals into isolation amid growing concern over new highly transmissible COVID strains.

Following a similarly firm approach taken in Australia, the enforced two-week confinement will also apply to anyone travelling from South Africa and Brazil regardless of whether they have a negative test.

The mandatory isolation for passengers arriving here comes almost 11 months after the first case of COVID-19 was identified on these shores.

Leading health expert Dr Gabriel Scally last night said that the measures should have been introduced ‘a long time ago’ but it was better late than never.

https://extra.ie/2021/01/26/news/irish-news/mandatory-isolation-travel-controls