Coronavirus 2020

coronavirus

#514

That ADE response sounds nasty. If COVID-19 had caused that response then locking people up in buildings to allow people re-infect each other is a bad idea.


#515

The latest figures show that more than 12,000 people have recovered from the infection out of a total of more than 73,000 who have contracted it.
We have to assume that many more will recover if we factor in the latest comments by the head of the World Health Organization.

Speaking in Geneva, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said data from China had helped form a “a clearer picture of the outbreak” and that it appeared that four out of five people infected would recover. It was not as deadly as Sars or Mers, he said, adding:

now I look at 73k and work out 2% to be 1,460 but 1800+ are already dead


#516

Here’s a very good study on 70,000 cases.

"Some of the conclusions reached include the following:

  • Some 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical.
  • The highest fatality rate is for people aged 80 and older, at 14.8%.
  • For children up to 9, there have been no fatalities and up to the age of 39, the death rate remains low at 0.2%.
  • For the next age groups, the fatality rates increase gradually: For people in their 40s it is 0.4%, in their 50s it is 1.3%, in their 60s it is 3.6% and their 70s it is 8%.
  • Looking at the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
  • Identifying which existing illnesses put patients at risk, the study finds cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension."

I also think that smoking and smog have a considerable impact, smoking especially, as the death rate in China is far higher than outside. I also think that they are only capturing a fraction of the cases around the world. Seems incredible the amount of people I know or have heard of that have a cold/flu lately (although, quite possibly nobody would normally speak about colds/flus if this wasn’t in the news so I wouldn’t normally hear about them). I’m not talking about western Europe or East coast of the U.S. either.

Edit: Removed Tweet. Looks like the 10 infected number in that Japanese hospital includes patients.


#517

Those are interesting figures. Personally, good to hear no fatalities amongst children. I’ve a lot of family members however who are over 70 and have diabetes, chronic respiratory disease or hypertension so that’s worrying.

Dr. John Campbell who does concise, non-sensationalist videos about the virus reckons that the chances of it becoming a pandemic are very high and if it does that it’ll reach Britain (and therefore Ireland) in about 2-3 weeks and peak in 2 months. I was allowing myself a cheat day at the weekend when I would eat high GI foods and watch a film with the kids but I think this will be the last weekend of spiking insulin for me :frowning: until this blows over.

The below is his advice on how to protect yourself against this Virus


#518

Oh look another video bites the dust.


#519

Coming back to the real time control of the Infodemic which some believe is worse than a pandemic :whistle:

There has been a lot of focus on this Event 201, from 2019, during the the early onset of this story and renewed interested based on the recent corporatist globalist pow wow.

(Event 201 seems ot be sponsored or associate with:
John Hopkins (Bloomberg School of Public Health).
World Economic Forum
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)

Interestingly enough, such moves were very aptly provided for or suggested as being problematic and outlined in Event 201 documentation.

COMMUNICATION IN A PANDEMIC

Prepared by Marc Trotochaud and Divya Hosangadi

Effective communication during public health events can be critical to public health response efforts. Public health messages help inform the public about risks and protective actions and, done correctly, are a critical component of community en> gagement and the buildup of public trust. Yet, true information about public health concerns is increasingly competing with false messages that can damage public confidence in health interventions and health authorities. These false messages are often defined as misinformation, erroneous information shared through various channels, and disinformation, purposefully spread false or misleading information. The information environment is increasingly made up of a mix of information coming from web sources and other media, in addition to historical sources such as print and TV news media. However, the influence of social media has made the spread of false information even more pernicious.

Over the past 15 years, there has been a global surge in the adoption of social media technologies. In 2019, 6 social media companies had more than 1 billion active monthly users.1 Although originally designed for virtual engagement with personal networks, social media platforms have grown rapidly to share major roles in the economy and the transfer of information. According to the Pew Research Center, social media officially outpaced print newspaper as a source of news among the entire United States population.2 Furthermore, across countries, regardless of a nation’s socioeconomic status, younger populations rely even more heavily on social media as a news source.3

Disinformation campaigns are widely recognized in the political world but have been identified in the public health realm as well. In the fall of 2018, a team of researchers systematically identified a concerted effort to spread disinformation and discord about vaccine safety.4 Public health response efforts for the currently ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have been challenged by disruptive rumors that have occasionally targeted public health responders.5,6 Misinformation during a public health emergency is a particularly concerning threat, because of the time-dependent nature of outbreak response and the corrosive effect misinformation can have on public trust. Current solutions to the spread of mis- and disinformation are limited. Social media platforms have attempted to change their algorithms to limit the spread of false

information and promote correct information, but the problem of misinformation continues.7,8 Many misinformation response actions have been developed to be used against political misinformation and disinformation but may be applied in response to an epidemic. More than 50 countries globally have taken different government-led actions that, in theory, aim to combat misinformation.9 These actions can range from media literacy campaigns and fact-checking websites to more extreme measures, such as jailing users for publishing content deemed to be misinformation. In some cases, authorities have shut down social media sites or the internet entirely.10-12

However, censoring social media content and denying a population access to the internet has serious consequences. In addition to ethical considerations, there is mounting evidence to suggest that there are serious economic consequences to shutting down the internet. According to the Indian Council for Research on International Economic relations, the estimated 16,000 hours of international internet shutdown in India resulted in around US$3 billion in economic losses.12

Misinformation and disinformation are likely to be serious threats during a public health emergency. Unfortunately, thus far, there are limited ways to control the propagation of misinformation, leading to potentially draconian methods to manage this problem.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/event201-resources/comms-fact-sheet-191014.pdf

No one ever proposes shutting down the internet, because that gives the game away, but disappearing videos and twitter accounts and (burying/tweaking) search results etc. etc. , basically manipulating what the masses see based on an unstated or occulted agenda, disguised under the umbrella of “humanitarian” action, seems to be the effective ticket these days, more often than anyone seems to realise.

Hard for most to get vexed when they do not miss something they never realised they had (access to) in the first place.


#520

18/2/2020
986 cases outside mainland China (includes latest update on Diamond Princess)

9/2/2020
336 cases outside mainland China. (pretty sure it was this date, didn’t have it marked on the spreadsheet when I first recorded it, but activity on the google document says it was the 9th).

Just looking to track the increases. The original estimates from the experts were a doubling every 6.2 days. Probably happens much quicker when you are all trapped together on a cruise ship.


#521

Yeah but it’s not reasonable to believe that Indonesia has no cases.


#522

Two Irish people test positive for the Virus on the Diamond Princess.


#523

#524

Japan appears to be almost wreckless with the handling of the Diamond Princess. How could anyone be clear as it clear was circulating on the cruise ship.


#525

Actually the pretty typical Japanese bureaucracy ballsup has provided a lot of useful new data points. When you stick a lot of people in a confined space with very bad physical isolation you end up with a R0 that looks around 4 plus. Other interesting data point is that half of those who tested positive were asymptomatic at time of testing.

Those unfamiliar with how Japan works might be surprised how the Japanese government response turned one infected person into 600 plus but that is pretty much par for the course when the unexpected happens. They had lots of plans, the Japanese always have lots of plans, but none it seems for a contaminated cruise ship turning up on its doorstep. Merchant vessels yes, cruise ships no. So the various ministries and local government agencies would have lots of meeting where nothing was decided. In that very Japanese way. And 600 plus people get needlessly infected.

When the unexpected happened the way it is suppose to happen, like the Sarin attack in Tokyo, there was a bit of a muddle but on the whole it was well handled. With the Kobe earthquake in 1995 the whole response system collapsed because the expected earthquake happened in an unexpected location and lots of structures that were supposed to survive failed. Unexpectedly. Like the freeways and lots of mid-rise buildings. And the fire response system. So large parts of Kobe burnt down. Then the city and prefecture government pretty much collapsed and the locals were left to fend for themselves.

Japaneses organizations are great at many things, improvising in a crisis is not one of them. If the day is saved its always by a few low level people ignoring orders, not waiting around, and doing what has to be done. Like the power plant manager at Fukushima. Looks like it did not happen in this particular case.


#526

Defo! That was not quarantine. It was leaving everyone on the boat to see how many could get infected. You’d expect better from the Japanese. The Diamond Princess and the Westerdam is what’ll spread this thing worldwide.


#528

15 new cases reported in South Korea. Most of them linked to an old woman who was a member of weird sect/cult. The Guardian are reporting 20 cases and that it is super-spreading event as the woman was a number of Church services whilst infected. The Guardian details are in the rolling feed so I can’t link

2 Died in Iran of the Virus and 3 new cases in Singapore and yet still no cases in Indonesia? Singapore is one of the cleanest societies on earth and even they are not free from it yet.


#529

Early reports of the deaths of two passengers from the diamond Princess. Nothing official yet. Grim news for the others on board. So that’s about three weeks after the first people would have been infected… Still awaiting something official though.


#530

I’m seeing advice here in Australia that you don’t have to worry about getting the virus from letters or parcels from China. In the same vein they say it can last on surfaces for days and you can get it from that. That doesn’t add up to me. Now what does it matter when China isn’t sending anything out anyway but it does matter, it’s inconsistent and blows a hole in credibility of those offering advice. This is not what you want at this stage.

Or am I barking up the wrong tree?


#531

The advice from many Health agencies around the world is that it should not last on packages delivered from China by air because of the changes in temp/pressure etc. and how they should kill the virus. The English Doctor said he wasn’t completely sure if he agreed with that and that he thinks it’s no harm leaving a package in the garage for a month and then any virus will definitely have been killed off.

Interestingly, a person I know lives with someone who works in an Amazon package warehouse in Denver and that person had a really bad flu about 3 weeks ago, and he took some days off work. He then got a bit better and went back to work, but his symptoms got bad again. I haven’t heard an update on him since. He was a young enough person. It may be completely unrelated to the coronavirus but I thought the job he had was quite coincidental and the timing.


#532

Looking increasingly like it Spreads like Flu, not SARS:

COVID-19 appears to inhabit both the upper and lower respiratory tracts.

That would make it not only capable of causing severe pneumonia, but of spreading easily like flu or the common cold.

Researchers in Guangdong province monitored the amount of coronavirus in the 18 patients.

One of them, who had moderate levels of the virus in their nose and throat, never had any disease symptoms.

Among the 17 symptomatic patients, the team found levels of the virus increased soon after symptoms first appeared, with higher amounts of virus present in the nose than in the throats, a pattern more similar to influenza than SARS.

The level of virus in the asymptomatic patient was similar to what was present in patients with symptoms, such as fever.

“What this says is clearly this virus can be shed out of the upper respiratory tract and that people are shedding it asymptomatically,” Poland said.

The findings add to evidence that this new virus, though genetically similar, is not behaving like SARS, said Kristian Andersen, an immunologist at Scripps Research in La Jolla who uses gene sequencing tools to track disease outbreaks.

“This virus is clearly much more capable of spreading between humans than any other novel coronavirus we’ve ever seen. This is more akin to the spread of flu,” said Andersen, who was not involved with the study.


#533

I don’t know if I buy what the Iranian gov are selling on this one. Until it’s validated by a WHO Lab.

If a government wished to crack down on protests, it might be very interesting to see the world approving of locking certain populations into their homes.


#534

Here is a study about survival of influenza viruses on banknotes. Which is relevant.

" Thus, in agreement with previous results (2, 7, 17), we found that influenza A viruses can survive on inert and nonporous surfaces for days or even weeks. On porous surfaces, such as paper or tissue, the survival rate appeared to be shorter and limited to 12 and 8 h for influenza A and B viruses, respectively. Although banknotes could be considered to be an inhospitable surface for any biological agent, we learned that the main raw material for the fabrication of Swiss banknotes is cotton which is covered by a resin (kinegram). This resin represents a nonporous surface, which we found to exhibit no significant pH variation (data not shown). Whether similar results would be obtained with banknotes from other countries and with different characteristics needs to be studied."

Basically on porous surfaces, like an envelope or wrapping paper, survival of these types of viruses is less than a day. On that shiny new electronic gadget inside the package, with a hard non porous surface, its up to a few weeks. So best to sanitize any hard surfaces with a isopropanol based disinfecting agent or wipe. The only thing that works very effectively against viruses. Or leave it in the garage for a month or two.